The gauge on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.
Bull/Bear Market
The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, down from 64% three weeks ago. The last decline was due to a fall in the US Bull/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting in the ASX index.
Four of six indicators from Australia and China indicate risk-on, with the remaining two — NAB Forward Orders and the ASX 200 relative to Gold (in AUD) — signaling risk-off.
The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) closed at a new high above 9750, a strong bull market signal for stocks.
Stock Pricing
ASX stock pricing eased to 90.86, from a high of 92.23 percent last week and a low of 67.85 in April.
We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its history, with the result expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average for the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher that stock market pricing is relative to its historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.
Conclusion
The ASX bull-bear indicator warns of a bear market, while valuations are now extreme, increasing the risk of a significant drawdown.
Acknowledgments
- NAB Monthly Business Survey: April 2025
- ABS: Private Dwelling Approvals
- Trading Economics: China Business Indicators
- Morningstar: ASX 20 Statistics
- S&P Global Indices: All Ordinaries Statistics
- Market Index: ASX Statistics
- ABS: National Accounts
- ASX: Historical Market Statistics
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.