The ASX Bull-Bear Leading Index signals a mild bear market.
Australian leading indicators account for 40% of the ASX Leading Index, China for 20%, and the US Leading Index for the remaining 40%.
Forward Orders
NAB Forward Orders declined to -1 in September 2026. The 3-month moving average remains below zero, signaling risk-off.
Housing Sector
The 3-month moving average of private housing approvals is well above its 20-year moving average (dotted line below), indicating a strong uptrend in the Australian housing sector.
A cross of 3-month MA values (navy) below the 20-year MA (red) would signal risk-off.
Financial Sector
The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is below its 50-week weighted moving average, and a breach of primary support at 9000 would signal risk-off.
ASX 200 Real Returns
The ASX 200 is above its 50-week moving average relative to Gold, but the long-term downtrend continues, with no higher troughs. The signal remains risk-off.
Performance of the ASX 200 Index relative to Gold (in Australian Dollars) reflects the real return on Australian Stocks.
China
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China eased to 97.41 in September. Values below 99.0 or a fall of more than 3 points from the preceding peak, as in 2008, signal risk-off.
China is Australia’s largest export market, and the Chinese economy’s performance directly affects the ASX.
Chinese Manufacturing
The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI increased to 50.1 in September from 49.8 in August. Values below 50 indicate a contraction, while a fall below 49.0 would signal risk-off.
Conclusion
The Bull-Bear indicator signals the start of a bear market. The ASX 200 Financials index remains on bear watch, testing primary support at 9000. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.1 in September, no longer signaling a contraction.
Related Links
Acknowledgments
- NAB: Monthly Business Survey
- ABS: Private Dwelling Approvals
- Trading Economics: China Business Indicators
- OECD: Composite Leading Indicators
- ABS: National Accounts