Data is updated weekly as part of the Market Analysis service.
The ASX Bull-Bear Leading Index improved slightly, to a mild bull market, because of changes to the US Leading Index:
Forward Orders
NAB Forward Orders retreated below zero in March, indicating a slowing business outlook, but the 3-month moving average remains positive, signaling risk-on.
Housing Sector
Activity in the Australian housing sector is improving, with the 3-month moving average of private housing approvals rising to 16.6K in March. The 3-month MA above the 20-year MA signals risk-on.
Financial Sector
Financial sector performance reflects confidence in the broader economy, particularly in the housing sector. The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is testing support at its 50-week weighted moving average but remains in an uptrend, signaling risk-on.
Real Returns
Performance of the ASX 200 Index relative to Gold (in Australian Dollars) reflects the real return on ASX investments. The ASX 200 is in a long-term downtrend relative to Gold.
China
China is Australia’s largest export market, and the performance of the Chinese economy directly impacts the ASX. The OECD Composite Leading Indicator fell to 98.49 in March, below the 99.0 level, which signals risk-off.
Chinese Manufacturing
The Chinese manufacturing sector remains in expansion, with the NBS Manufacturing PMI above 50. Values below 49.0 signal risk-off.
Conclusion
Past performance does not guarantee future performance, but the above indicators provide a useful guide to market sentiment.
Acknowledgments
- NAB: Monthly Business Survey
- ABS: Private Dwelling Approvals
- Trading Economics: China Business Indicators
- OECD: Composite Leading Indicators
- ABS: National Accounts