ASX Bull-Bear Market Leading Indicator

The ASX Bull-Bear Leading Index remains at 64, indicating a slowing bull market. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. However, NAB Forward Orders and the ASX 200 Financials Index are falling, so we are on bear watch.

Improvement in recent weeks was due to changes to composite indicators for the US Leading Index, which enjoys a 40% weighting in the ASX Index.

NAB Forward Orders fell sharply, to -5 in April 2026, from -1 in March, while the 3-month moving average dropped to zero. Any further decline will signal risk-off.

Activity in the Australian housing sector is improving, with the 3-month moving average of private housing approvals rising to 16.6K in March. The 3-month MA above the 20-year MA signals risk-on.

The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is below its 50-week weighted moving average, and is testing primary support at 9000. A breach of 9000 would indicate a primary downtrend, signaling risk-off, but the signal remains risk-on for the present.

The ASX 200 crossed above its 50-week moving average but remains in a long-term downtrend relative to Gold, signaling risk-off.

Performance of the ASX 200 Index relative to Gold (in Australian Dollars) reflects the real return on the index.

China is Australia’s largest export market, and the performance of the Chinese economy directly impacts the ASX. The OECD Composite Leading Indicator lifted to 98.8 in April, from 98.49 in March. Values below 99.0, or a fall of more than 3 points from the preceding peak, signals risk-off.

The Chinese manufacturing sector remains in expansion, with the NBS Manufacturing PMI above 50. Values below 49.0 signal risk-off.