The ASX Bull-Bear Leading Index improved to 64%, indicating a Mild Bull Market, after the ASX 200 signaled an uptrend relative to Gold (in Australian Dollars).
Australian leading indicators account for 40% of the ASX Leading Index, China for 20%, and the US Leading Index for the remaining 40%.
Forward Orders
NAB Forward Orders declined to -1 in September 2026. The 3-month moving average remains below zero, signaling risk-off.
Housing Sector
The 3-month moving average of private housing approvals is well above its 20-year moving average (dotted line below), indicating a strong uptrend in the Australian housing sector.
A cross of the 3-month MA (navy) below the 20-year MA (red) would signal risk-off.
Financial Sector
The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is above its 50-week weighted moving average, testing resistance at 10,000. A breach of primary support at 9,000 would signal risk-off.
ASX 200 Real Returns
The ASX 200 has formed a higher trough above its 50-week moving average relative to Gold, signaling an uptrend. The signal switches to risk-on until a lower peak is accompanied by a fall below the 50-week weighted moving average.
Performance of the ASX 200 Index relative to Gold (in Australian Dollars) reflects the real return on Australian Stocks.
China
The OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China eased to 97.41 in September. Values below 99.0 or a fall of more than 3 points from the preceding peak, as in 2008, signal risk-off.
China is Australia’s largest export market, and the Chinese economy’s performance directly affects the ASX.
Chinese Manufacturing
The Chinese NBS Manufacturing PMI plunged to 49.3 in October from 50.1 in September, missing market expectations of 50. Values below 50 indicate a contraction, while a fall below 49.0 signals risk-off.
Conclusion
The Bull-Bear indicator indicates a Mild Bull Market after the ASX 200 commenced an uptrend relative to Gold in Australian Dollars, signaling risk-on. However, China is back on bear watch after the NBS Manufacturing PMI contracted to 49.3 in October.
Related Links
Acknowledgments
- NAB: Monthly Business Survey
- ABS: Private Dwelling Approvals
- Trading Economics: China Business Indicators
- OECD: Composite Leading Indicators
- ABS: National Accounts