Globalization

  • Asian middle class
  • Deflation
  • Trade wars are class wars
  • Thucydides trap (great power conflict)
  • Pandemic

Declining globalization
Great power competition
Increased emphasis on supply-chain security
Trade tariffs

  • De-coupling from China
  • On-shoring critical supply chains

Asian middle class

Homi Kharas from Brookings Institute says that China and India are at the forefront of expansion of the global middle class and the world economy can be expected to increasingly rely on these two countries as sources of global demand.

He projects that 66% of the global middle class will reside in Asia by 2030.

A rising middle class is likely to exhibit strong demand for:

  • Consumer durables (housing, appliances, home furnishing and motor vehicles);
  • Communications and infrastructure;
  • Food, especially protein sources like meat and dairy;
  • Beverages;
  • Personal products;
  • Iconic consumer brands;
  • Travel and tourism; and
  • Energy and technology.

Deflation

Trade wars are class wars

Thucydides trap

Pandemic

  • Work-from-home
  • Decline of mass transport
  • Vaccinations
  • Vaccine passports