Tag: ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator

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ASX Market Snapshot

Bull-Bear Market Leading Index
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Leading Index is at 54, down from 64 last week, signaling a bear market. Two of four Australian indicators signal risk-off after the 3-month moving average of NAB Forward Orders fell to -2 for May 2026. One of two Chinese indicators signals risk-off, and the ASX 200 Financials Index is testing primary support, so we are on bear watch. ASX Bull/Bear Market Indicator Australian leading indicators carry a 40% weighting in the ASX Leading Index, China 20%, and the US Leading Index the remaining 40%.

Financial Sector

The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is below its 50-week weighted moving average, and testing primary support at 9000. A breach of 9000, confirmed by follow-through below 8900, would flag a primary downtrend — a risk-off signal. ASX 200 Financials Index

Housing Approvals

Activity in the Australian housing sector is improving, with the 3-month moving average of private housing approvals rising to 17.4K in April. A cross of 3-month MA values (navy) to below the 20-year MA (red) would signal risk-off. Australian Private Housing Approvals

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing fell sharply to 73.96 from 76.31 percent last week, largely due to falling forward Price-Earnings Ratios. Our highest reading was 92.23 percent in August 2025, with a low of 67.85 percent in April 2025.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator's current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Conclusion

The Bull-Bear indicator suggests that the Australian economy is slowing. Two Australian indicators — NAB Forward Orders and the ASX 200 Financial Index — are close to the threshold but do not yet signal risk-off. However, they keep us on bear alert.

Meanwhile, valuations remain high, increasing the risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Managing Risk

To find out more, go to Managing Risk on the top menu, or see:

Posted on

ASX Market Snapshot

Bull-Bear Market Leading Index
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Leading Index is at 54, down from 64 last week, signaling a bear market. Two of four Australian indicators signal risk-off after the 3-month moving average of NAB Forward Orders fell to -2 for May 2026. One of two Chinese indicators signals risk-off, and the ASX 200 Financials Index is testing primary support, so we are on bear watch. ASX Bull/Bear Market Indicator Australian leading indicators carry a 40% weighting in the ASX Leading Index, China 20%, and the US Leading Index the remaining 40%.

Financial Sector

The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is below its 50-week weighted moving average, and testing primary support at 9000. A breach of 9000, confirmed by follow-through below 8900, would flag a primary downtrend — a risk-off signal. ASX 200 Financials Index

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing fell sharply to 73.96 from 76.31 percent last week, largely due to falling forward Price-Earnings Ratios. Our highest reading was 92.23 percent in August 2025, with a low of 67.85 percent in April 2025.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator's current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Conclusion

The Bull-Bear indicator suggests that the Australian economy is slowing. Two Australian indicators are falling, and, while not yet signaling risk-off, they keep us on bear alert.

On the other hand, valuations remain high, increasing the risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Managing Risk

To find out more, go to Managing Risk on the top menu, or see:

Posted on

ASX Market Snapshot

Bull/Bear Market Leading Index
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Leading Index is at 54, down from 64 last week, signaling a bear market. Two of four Australian indicators signal risk-off after the 3-month moving average of NAB Forward Orders fell to -2 for May 2026. One of two Chinese indicators signals risk-off, and the ASX 200 Financials Index is testing primary support, so we are on bear watch. ASX Bull/Bear Market Indicator Australian leading indicators carry a 40% weighting in the ASX Leading Index, China 20%, and the US Leading Index the remaining 40%.

Financial Sector

The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) is below its 50-week weighted moving average, and testing primary support at 9000. A breach of 9000, confirmed by follow-through below 8900, would flag a primary downtrend — a risk-off signal. ASX 200 Financials Index

China

The OECD Composite Leading Indicator for China lifted to 98.91 in May, from 98.8 in April. Values below 99.0, or a fall of more than 3 points from the preceding peak, signal risk-off.

China: OECD Composite Leading Indicator

China is Australia's largest export market, and the performance of the Chinese economy directly impacts the ASX.

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing jumped to 76.72 percent, from 73.92 percent last week. The highest reading was 92.23 percent in August 2025, compared with a low of 67.85 percent in April 2025.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Conclusion

The ASX bull-bear indicator at 64% signals a mild bull market, while stock market pricing remains high, increasing the risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Managing Risk

To find out more, go to Managing Risk on the top menu, or see:

Posted on

ASX Market Snapshot

Bull-Bear Market Indicator
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, from 66% nine weeks ago. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. When combined with the US Bull/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator signals a mild bear market.

ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator

The ASX 200 Financials Index is retracing to test primary support at 9000. A breach would indicate reversal to a primary downtrend, signaling risk-off.

ASX 200 Financials Index

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing declined to 76.24 percent, from 77.79 percent last week. The August 2025 high was 92.23 percent, with an April low of 67.85 percent.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Conclusion

The ASX bull-bear indicator at 56% signals a mild bear market, while stock market pricing remains high, increasing the risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

ASX Market Snapshot

Bull-Bear Market Indicator
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, from 66% nine weeks ago. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. When combined with the US Bull/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator signals a mild bear market.

ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator

NAB Forward Orders fell to -1 in March, but the 3-month moving average remains at 2.33. Values above zero signal risk-on.

NAB Forward Orders

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing declined to 77.79 percent, from 79.17 percent last week. The August 2025 high was 92.23 percent, with an April low of 67.85 percent.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

The ASX 20 Price-to-Sales ratio (20% trimmed mean) declined to 4.37 from 4.46 last week, but remains above its long-term average of 4.17.

ASX 20 Price-to-Sales 20% Trimmed Mean

Conclusion

The ASX bull-bear indicator at 56% signals a mild bear market, while stock market pricing remains high, with elevated risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

ASX Market Snapshot

Bull-Bear Market Indicator
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, from 66% eight weeks ago. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. When combined with the US Bull/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator signals a mild bear market.

ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator

The ASX 200 Financials Index broke resistance at 10,000, indicating a strong uptrend, signaling risk-on.

ASX 200 Financials Index

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing improved slightly to 79.17 percent, from 78.87 percent last week. The August 2025 high was 92.23 percent, with an April low of 67.85 percent.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

The ASX stock market capitalization to GDP ratio fell to 1.10 at the end of March, but is still above the long-term average of 1.02.

ASX Stock Market Capitalisation to GDP

Conclusion

The ASX bull-bear indicator at 56% signals a mild bear market, while stock market pricing continues to warn of the elevated risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

ASX Market Snapshot

Bull-Bear Market Indicator
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, from 66% eight weeks ago. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. When combined with the US Bull/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator signals a mild bear market.

ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator

Australian monthly building approvals continue their uptrend, with the 3-month moving average at 16.0, above the 20-year moving average, signaling risk-on.

Australian Building Approvals

The ASX 200 Financials Index weakened to 9440, but long tails on weekly candles indicate strong primary support at 9000, and the signal remains risk-on.

ASX 200 Financials Index

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing fell dramatically to 78.87 percent, from 84.47 percent last week, as the market retreated. The August 2025 high was 92.23 percent, with an April low of 67.85 percent.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

The All Ordinaries trailing dividend yield has increased to 3.41% as the market corrects, but is way below the 4.5% to 5.0% that would signal a buy opportunity.

All Ordinaries Index Dividend Yield

Conclusion

The ASX bull-bear indicator at 56% signals a mild bear market, while stock market pricing continues to warn of an elevated risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

ASX Market Snapshot

Bull-Bear Market Indicator
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, from 66% eight weeks ago. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. When combined with the US Bull/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator signals a mild bear market.

ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator

The ASX 200 continues its long-term downtrend relative to gold (in Australian Dollars).

ASX 200/Gold in AUD

The ASX 200 Financials Index weakened to 9475 but still signals risk-on. We expect a correction to test primary support at 9000.

ASX 200 Financials Index

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing increased to 84.47 percent, from 83.79 percent last week, as the market retreated. The August 2025 high was 92.23 percent, with an April low of 67.85 percent.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Conclusion

The ASX bull-bear indicator at 56% signals a mild bear market, while stock market pricing continues to warn of an elevated risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

ASX Market Snapshot

Bull-Bear Market Indicator
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, from 66% eight weeks ago. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. When combined with the US Bull/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator signals a mild bear market.

ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator

The ASX 200 Financials Index weakened to 9548.6 but continues to signal risk-on. The retracement will likely test primary support at 9000.

ASX 200 Financials Index

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing eased to 83.79 percent, from 85.01 percent last week, as the market retreated. The August 2025 high was 92.23 percent, with an April low of 67.85 percent.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Conclusion

The ASX bull-bear indicator at 56% signals a mild bear market, while stock market pricing is extreme, suggesting an elevated risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

Posted on

ASX Market Snapshot

Bull-Bear Market Indicator
Stock Market Pricing Indicator

The gauge on the left indicates whether the market is in a bull or bear phase, while the one on the right reflects the current valuation of the stock market. Stock market pricing indicates whether stocks are cheap or expensive in relation to earnings, but it is a poor indicator of market timing. We do not recommend selling stocks when market valuations are high, but we advise caution when adding new positions.

Bull/Bear Market

The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator remains at 56%, from 66% seven weeks ago. One of four Australian indicators and one of two Chinese indicators signal risk-off. When combined with the US Bull/Bear indicator, which has a 40% weighting, the composite indicator signals a mild bear market.

ASX Bull-Bear Market Indicator

NAB forward orders maintained their uptrend, rising to +6 in February. The 3-month moving average increased to 2.33; values above zero signal risk-on.

NAB Forward Orders

China, however, is slowing. The NBS Manufacturing PMI slipped to 49.0 in February; a further decline would add another risk-off signal.

China: NBS Manufacturing PMI

Stock Pricing

ASX stock pricing eased to 85.01 percent, from 86.04 percent last week, as the market retreated. The August 2025 high was 92.23 percent, with an April low of 67.85 percent.

ASX Stock Market Value Indicator

We use z-scores to measure each indicator’s current position relative to its historical data, with results expressed in standard deviations from the mean. We then calculate an average of the five readings and convert that to a percentile. The higher stock market prices are relative to their historical mean, the greater the risk of a sharp drawdown.

Conclusion

The ASX bull-bear indicator at 56% signals a mild bear market, while stock market pricing remains extreme, suggesting an elevated risk of a drawdown.

Acknowledgments

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