Australian CPI disappoints

CPI disappointed, coming in at 1.0% for the March quarter, against expectations of 0.8%. The year-on-year measure declined to 3.6% but there are some worrying signs for the RBA.

Australian CPI

Non-tradable inflation — reflecting domestic goods and services as opposed to imports — remains high at 5.0%.

Australian CPI - Non-Tradable

That includes rent inflation which jumped to a year-on-year rate of 7.8%.

Australian CPI - Rent

It is also distorted by low electricity price inflation at 2.0% which has been adjusted downwards by inclusion of government Energy Bill Relief Rebates. The increase before rebates is 17.0% according to the ABS.

Australian CPI - Electricity

Alex Joiner from IFM Investors shows the Sticky Inflation rate for Australia, calculated using the Atlanta Fed methodology, is at a similar rate to non-tradable inflation:

Australian CPI - Sticky Inflation

Conclusion

Prospects of rate cuts from the RBA in 2024 are fading. Long-term government bond rates jumped on release of the report, with the 10-year AGB yield rising to 4.38%. Rising long-term rates are bearish for stocks but particularly for A-REITs.

ASX 200 A-REITs

Acknowledgements

Markets move to Risk-Off

Bitcoin broke support at $64K, warning that financial markets are moving to risk-off . Traders and investors reduce their exposure to risk and focus on protecting their capital. Follow-through below $62K would confirm, warning of a sharp fall (in BTC) and a stock market correction.

Bitcoin

The 10-Year Treasury yield has climbed to 4.67%, confirming our target of 5.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The Japanese Yen fell to 154 against the Dollar, increasing pressure on the Bank of Japan to loosen the cap on long-term JGB yields — to protect the Yen. The result of such a move would be an outflow of Japanese investors from the US Treasury market, increasing upward pressure on UST yields and downward pressure on the Dollar.

USDJPY

Fed Monetary Policy

From CNN:

The US economy’s enduring strength and a “lack of progress” on inflation means the central bank likely won’t cut interest rates at its upcoming policy meeting just two weeks away, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Tuesday.

“The recent data have clearly not given us greater confidence” that inflation is headed toward the central bank’s 2% goal, Powell said during a moderated discussion hosted by the Wilson Center. Instead, he said, there are indications “that it is likely to take longer than expected to achieve that confidence.”

Stocks

The S&P 500 broke support at 5100, warning of a correction. Lower Trend Index peaks reflect selling pressure. Our target is 4950.

S&P 500

The Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) continued its downward path after breaking support at 6650, presenting a target of 6250.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

US Consumers

Real retail sales ticked up in March to remain on trend.

Real Retail Sales

Light vehicle sales also remain reasonably strong, at 15.5 million units (annualized) in March.

Light Vehicle Sales

Gold & the Dollar

The Dollar Index climbed above 106, strengthened by safe haven demand and the appeal of higher long-term yields. Our target is the October 2023 high at 107.

Dollar Index

Gold is again testing resistance at our target of $2400 per ounce, currently at $2383. The Shanghai Gold Exchange continues to display a premium on its international gold contract (iAu99.99) at 558.3 Yuan which translates to $2399 per Troy ounce (31.10348 grams). The domestic contract trades at an even higher price of 569 per gram but is subject to capital controls. The price premium should ensure a constant inflow of physical gold from other exchanges to China for as long it is maintained.

Spot Gold

Silver retraced from resistance at $29 per ounce and is testing support at $28. The lower Trend Index peak warns of selling pressure. Breach of $28 would warn of a correction to $26. Breakout above $29 is less likely in the short-term but would signal a fresh advance, with a medium-term target of $34.

Spot Silver

Crude & Commodities

Brent crude is in a narrow consolidation (pennant) at $90 per barrel. Continuation is likely and would test resistance at $96 per barrel.
Brent Crude

Nymex crude has retraced to test short-term support at $85 per barrel. Respect is likely and would indicate an advance to our target at $90.
WTI Light Crude

Conclusion

Geopolitical risk dominates, with an Israeli retaliatory attack on Iran expected before the end of the month.

Rising crude oil prices are likely to increase inflationary pressure and the yield on long-term Treasuries, with the 10-year yield expected to test 5.0%.

Safe haven demand from investors is concentrated on Gold, with bond prices falling and stocks warning of a correction. We expect a short retracement to test support levels but respect is likely and would signal another advance.

Bitcoin is diverging from Gold as investors grow more risk averse. Breach of support at $62K would confirm a correction, with support expected at $52K.

Acknowledgements



Iran attacks Israel

Markets are overshadowed by news that Iran directly attacked Israel in retaliation for the bombing of its embassy in Damascus which killed two high-ranking Iranian generals.

Iran

This is a significant escalation in Iran’s on-going proxy war against Israel.

Russia and its allies are emboldened by the US failure to support Ukraine and are stepping up their attacks on Western allies.

Iran

Mick Ryan (retired Australian Maj. General) writes:

…What is Iran’s ultimate goal here and its strategy to achieve it? This is a major shift in the way the Iranians have attacked Israel for years. Proxy forces are normally Iran’s preference in order to keep it at arm’s length from a potential Israeli response. Why has it decided on such a drastic course change in its strategy to confront Israel?

He lays out four options for retaliation — ranging from no direct response to a massive hammer blow to deter a repeat — and concludes:

All of these are possible in the hours and days ahead. All have advantages, as well as considerable disadvantages, for the Israelis. But one thing is certain, the concept of ‘re-establishing deterrence’ against Iran will be an important guiding idea.

And, it is uncertain whether the Iranians are really prepared for what they may have unleashed against their country and the wider region.

Flight to Safety

Given the high level of uncertainty, we can expect a significant flight to safe haven assets. Stocks are expected to weaken, with the S&P 500 breaching support at 5100 to signal a secondary correction.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) has already warned of a market move to risk-off after breaching support at 6650. A test of support at 6400 is likely.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX)

The Russelll 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) has similarly breached support at 200, warning of a correction to 190.

Russelll 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM)

Brent crude is expected to test resistance at $96 per barrel.

Brent Crude

10-Year Treasury yields are already retracing and headed for a test of new support at 4.35%. Respect is likely, however, and would confirm an advance to test resistance at 5.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The Dollar Index may not follow 10-year Treasury yields, with safe haven demand fueling a test of 107.

Dollar Index

Gold saw significant profit-taking on Friday after reaching our target of $2400 per ounce earlier in the day. Retracement is likely to respect support at $2300, followed by a strong advance fueled by safe-haven demand.

Spot Gold

The international contract on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (iAu99.99) is trading at 562 Yuan/gram. This equates to a USD price of $2415 per troy ounce — a sizable premium over Friday’s close at $2344.

Silver has retraced to test support at $28 per ounce. Respect is likely, signaling a test of resistance at $29 per ounce. Breakout above $29 would offer a long-term target of $36 per ounce.

Spot Silver

Bitcoin is consolidating below resistance at $72K. Breakout is likely and would offer a target of $92K, while reversal below support at $64K would warn of a correction to test $52K.

Bitcoin

Conclusion

Escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict is likely to drive crude oil prices to new highs as geopolitical risk rises. Inflationary pressures are expected to climb as a result, reducing the possibility of Fed rate cuts this year.

Other geopolitical factors could intervene, including the Saudis increasing production to hold crude oil prices below $100 per barrel. Above $100 is considered unsustainable by many producers and believed to lead to sharp falls in demand as the global economy contracts in response.

Financial markets, stocks and precious metals are likely to be dominated by safe-haven demand in the weeks ahead. A shift from small caps — and even the broad S&P 500 to the largest “magnificent seven” tech stocks — is expected as investors grow increasingly risk averse. Demand for Gold & Silver is expected to rise. The Dollar is likely to strengthen, along with short-/medium-term Treasuries. But long-term yields are unclear because of conflicting inflation/safe-haven pressures.

Acknowledgements

 

Australian consumer sentiment

The Westpac Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index declined 2.4% to 82.4 in April, from 84.4 in March.

Consumer Sentiment Index

The pessimism that has dominated the consumer mood for nearly two years now is still showing few signs of lifting. The latest Index read is well below the ‘neutral’ level of 100, meaning pessimists outnumber optimists by over 15ppts. It is also in line with the average recorded over the last 24 months, marking an extended period of bleak sentiment reads by historical standards. Indeed, outside of the deep recession of the early 1990s, this is easily the second most protracted period of deep consumer pessimism since we began surveying in the mid-1970s, with all other sentiment slumps lasting nine months or less.

Source

Westpac: Consumer sentiment sinks back towards historic lows, 9 April 2024

Rising Crude and Gold warn of inflation

Brent crude continued its advance, closing at almost $89 per barrel on Tuesday. Our target is $94 per barrel would increase inflationary pressure in the months ahead and possibly delay Fed rate cuts.

Brent Crude

Rising crude oil prices have forced cancellation of plans to restock the strategic petroleum reserve (Bloomberg). US crude and petroleum inventory (including SPR) is testing the lows from January 2023.

Crude & Petroleum Inventory

Treasury Market

10-Year Treasury yields broke resistance at 4.35% but is retracing to test the new support level. Respect would confirm an advance to test resistance at 5.0%. Failure of support is less likely but would warn of another test of 4.05%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Federal debt at 120% of GDP, deficits of 6% of GDP, and a growing interest rate burden limit the available options.

Federal Debt/GDP

The Fed can suppress long-term interest rates but the cost — in terms of inflation — is likely to be high.

Federal Debt Interest Burden

The US is well along the path to fiscal dominance as explained in this 2023 paper from the San Francisco Fed:

Fiscal dominance refers to the possibility that the accumulation of government debt and continuing government deficits can produce increases in inflation that “dominate” central bank intentions to keep inflation low….If global real interest rates returned tomorrow to their historical average of roughly 2 percent, given the existing level of US government debt and large continuing projected deficits, the US would likely experience an immediate fiscal dominance problem. Even if interest rates remain substantially below their historical average, if projected deficits occur as predicted, there is a significant possibility of a fiscal dominance problem within the next decade.

The essence of fiscal dominance is the need for the government to fund its deficits on the margin with non-interest-bearing debts. The use of non-interest-bearing debt as a means of funding is also known as “inflation taxation.” Fiscal dominance leads governments to rely on inflation taxation by “printing money” (increasing the supply of non-interest-bearing government debt).

The rise in Gold — currently at $2270 per ounce — reflects bond market fears of an inflation rebound.

Spot Gold

The same inflation fears are also driving demand for stocks.

S&P 500

US Economy

The US economy continues to display resilience, with job openings holding steady at 8.8 million in February, exceeding unemployment by a wide margin of 2.3 million.

Job Openings & Unemployment

Light vehicle sales remain robust at a seasonally-adjusted 15.8 million annual rate in February, reflecting consumer confidence.

Light Vehicle Sales

However, heavy truck sales (41.6K in February) are trending lower — with the 6-month moving average crossing below the 12- month MA — reflecting declining business confidence.

Heavy Truck Sales

Conclusion

The economy remains robust but fears of an inflation rebound are growing, fueled by rising crude oil prices and large fiscal deficits. The odds of Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year are shrinking but there are still two possible scenarios:

  1. A sharp decline in economic activity could still prompt the Fed to cut rates despite inflationary fears. That would be a strong bear signal for stocks.
  2. Fiscal dominance, with the deliberate use of inflation as a tax in order to restore the ratio of debt-to-GDP to more sustainable levels. This involves shrinking the public debt in real terms by expanding GDP through inflation. A strong bull signal for real assets such as Gold, Stocks and Commodities.

Acknowledgements

Solid-state Lithium batteries: the next generation

Money is pouring into research into solid-state lithium batteries (SSBs) which promise to leapfrog existing lithium-ion battery technology.

A battery consists of three parts: a cathode, an anode, and the electrolyte. The cathode releases electrons which are then transported through the electrolyte and received by the anode. Current lithium-ion batteries use a graphite-silicon anode with a liquid electrolyte. Solid-state batteries replace the liquid with a solid electrolyte (SE), normally in a thin film — made from either an oxide, sulfide, a halide or a polymer.

Solid-State Battery

Metal-halides are gaining more attention due to their excellent compatibility toward oxide cathode materials, acceptable ionic conductivity and wide electrochemical stability. (Science Direct)

SSB Advantages

Solid-state batteries promise greater energy density, better performance at low temperatures, greater safety, faster charging, longer range, and longer battery life.

Enhanced thermal performance is expected to improve operation at low temperatures — a key weakness in cold climates. Safety is also improved by the solid electrolyte which is unlikely to leak if the battery casing is punctured — for example in a car accident — reducing the risk of a fire.

Anodes

There are still problems that have to be solved. A key stumbling block is the anode.

Lithium-metal anodes show promise but development has been plagued by dendrites which accumulate on the anode and rapidly reduce its effectiveness. Dendrites are also likely to cause a fire if they grow to the point that they pierce the barrier between the anode and the cathode.

Other developers have opted for silicon anodes but these present a different problem. Silicon is highly conductive, making it suitable for use in battery construction, but the silicon expands and contracts with each charging cycle, causing deterioration over time.

State of Progress

Toyota, one of the leading developers, has pushed back the planned introduction date for their new SSBs until 2028.

Another developer, California-based QuantumScape (NYSE:QS), seems to be making progress:

In January, Volkswagen announced successful testing on a solid-state battery developed by QuantumScape achieved more than 1,000 charging cycles and maintained 95% of its capacity. (The Guardian)

Acknowledgements

Australian jobs & GDP

Great research note by Gareth Aird at Commbank, where he predicts that the unemployment rate in Australia will rise to 4.5% by the end of 2024.

The latest ABS report showed unemployment dropped to 3.7% in February, while the trend remained at 3.8%.

Australian Unemployment Rate

Aird says the sharp rise in employment (green below) in February is at odds with Commonwealth Bank data on the number of salary payments transferred into CBA accounts. The annual percentage change (blue) is declining steeply.

Australia: CBA Salary Payments (Number)

He says that the labor market should not be viewed in isolation but assessed against GDP data. GDP growth is falling and negative per capita GDP growth — indicating a per capita recession in the last three quarters — reinforces that the economy is growing below trend.
Australian Quarterly GDP

It is unusual to have such strong growth in employment in a slowing economy that is running well below trend. But it’s not unprecedented.

However, the trend in employment (blue) is still declining and ABS research (according to Aird) has previously shown that trend data is “superior” to seasonally-adjusted data (red).

Australian Employment Trend

Declining Seek job ads (blue below) since May ’22 also show that the tight labor market is now easing.

Australia: Seek Job Ads

Conclusion

The Australian labor market is expected to weaken in 2024, with the unemployment rate rising.

Poor employment growth is likely to drag GDP growth even lower.

Commbank project three RBA rate cuts of 25 basis points each, commencing in September 2024, based on a deteriorating employment market. Our own view is  less certain, given the potential of higher crude oil prices to increase inflationary pressures and slow RBA monetary easing.

Acknowledgements

Strong liquidity and a weak Yuan boost stocks & Gold

The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) closed at a new record high above 6800. The advance signals that the current rally is finding broader support and is not as concentrated on the top 7 mega-cap technology stocks.

S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index ($IQX)

Retracement on the Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM) respected support at 200, signaling a fresh advance. Our target is the 2021 high at 240. The breakout again signals that investors are growing more comfortable with risk,

Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM)

Financial Markets

Bitcoin retraced slightly. Respect of support at $68K is likely, however, and would confirm an advance to test $72K.

Bitcoin

The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index eased to -0.556, indicating plenty of liquidity in financial markets.

Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index
The Corporate Bond Market Distress Index reflects healthy credit markets, with Investment Grade (brown below) slightly above the 25th percentile and the High Yield Index (ocher) near record lows, below the 5th percentile on the right-hand scale.
Corporate Bond Market Distress Index

Gold & the Dollar

The Dollar Index continues to test resistance at 104.5. Follow-through above 105 would offer a target of 107.
Dollar Index

Gold is strengthening despite a relatively strong Dollar, with demand from China driving up prices. Breakout above $2200 would confirm our target of $2400 per ounce.

Spot Gold

Crude Oil

Crude is retracing, with Nymex Light Crude testing support at $80 per barrel. Respect is likely and would confirm our target of $90. High crude prices are caused by (a) the Red Sea threat to shipping, forcing tankers to take the longer route to Europe around the Cape of Africa; (b) Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries; and (c) OPEC extension of production cuts through June.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

Russian Gasoline Production

Conclusion

Strong liquidity in financial markets maintains upward pressure on stocks, with advances widening to include the broad S&P 500 index and small cap stocks.

Gold continues to test resistance at $2200 per ounce, driven by demand from China in response to a weakening Yuan. Breakout is likely and would confirm our target of $2400 per ounce.

Crude is retracing to test support, but respect is likely and would confirm another advance. Rising crude prices would increase inflationary pressures in the months ahead, making it difficult for the Fed to cut rates. This would add upward pressure to long-term Treasury yields and erode demand for stocks.

Acknowledgements

Gold & Oil – a new paradigm

The expanding BRICS bloc is moving away from the PetroDollar, looking to settle oil imports in their domestic currencies. But that is unlikely to be achieved without the use of an alternative reserve asset that can be used to settle trade imbalances. The only likely candidate is Gold.

But first let’s start with a review of financial markets.

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index fell to -0.53, signaling further monetary easing.

Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin found support above $60K and recovery above $68K would signal a re-test of resistance at $72K, indicating ample liquidity in financial markets.

Bitcoin

10-Year Treasury yields respected resistance at 4.35%. Breach of support at 4.20% would signal another test of 4.05%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Janet Yellen at Treasury is doing her best to keep a lid on long-term Treasury yields in order to ensure a smooth run-up to the November elections. This includes limiting the supply of long-term Treasuries by issuing short-term T-Bills in their place.

Keeping long-term yields low helps to support stock prices. High stock prices in turn boost tax revenues which reduce the deficit and new issuance of USTs.

The S&P 500 weekly chart shows how the index has been rising since late-2023. Shallow corrections, of less than 3%, indicate exceptional buying pressure. That and a strong rise in the Trend Index (above zero) suggest that stocks are getting overheated.

S&P 500

The magnificent 7 technology stocks have been leading the advance but now two — Apple (AAPL) and Tesla (TSLA) — are falling behind. A stumble in more key stocks would be cause for concern.

Top 7 Technology Stocks

The Dollar

The Dollar Index, shown on the weekly chart below, is headed for a test of resistance at 105. Breakout would signal an advance to 107. The sharp rise on Friday is attributed to a surprise rate cut by the Swiss central bank.

Dollar Index - Weekly

The PBOC also relaxed its managed float, allowing the exchange rate to rise above 7.2 Yuan to the Dollar.

USDCNY

It is unusual to see the Dollar strengthening while long-term Treasury yields are falling. We need to monitor this closely.

Crude Oil

Brent crude is retracing to test support at $84 per barrel. But respect is likely and would confirm our target of $94 per barrel. If that occurs, we expect upward pressure on inflation in the months ahead.

Brent Crude

Gold

Spot Gold in London is retracing to again test support at $2150 per ounce. Respect would signal another advance and follow-through above $2200 would confirm our target of $2400.

Spot Gold

A New Paradigm

The global crude oil market dwarfs other commodities, with production of more than 100 million barrels per day (EIA). Gold production is only 5000 metric tonnes per year — a fraction of the crude market — but the two have close historic links.

High crude prices often coincided with high gold prices. It was believed that oil producers increased purchases of gold when they made excess profits but in the last decade, there has been greater divergence between Gold and Crude.

10-Year Treasury Yield minus CPI & Gold 12-Month Percentage Gain

Another historic factor was the relationship between gold and real interest rates. The chart below shows how gold made large 12-month gains (orange) whenever the real 10-year Treasury yield (adjusted for CPI) fell below zero.

Negative real yields were the perfect signal to go long Gold, in expectation of rising inflation, funded by negative real interest rates. But that relationship too broke down, with negative real yields of -5.0% accompanied by falling Gold prices after August 2020.

10-Year Treasury Yield minus CPI & Gold 12-Month Percentage Gain

Gold bulls have long accused the Fed/Treasury of manipulating the gold price. In the 1960s, it was done openly by the London Gold Pool, a consortium of 8 major central banks, led by the Fed, who collaborated to maintain a fixed gold price of $35 per ounce. The Gold Pool collapsed in 1968, allowing gold to appreciate above the fixed exchange rate. This led to Richard Nixon to end US Dollar convertibility to gold in 1971.

It makes sense for central banks to suppress the price of Gold — this would increase demand for US Treasuries and other sovereign debt as reserve assets.

We have also observed unusual activity on Comex futures, with heavy selling into rallies. Any rational seller would sell in smaller quantities and avoid off-peak times — when bids are thin — in order not to interrupt the trend and maximize prices achieved. Large sellers generally take pains to avoid alerting the market as to their intentions. The opposite of some of the “shock and awe” selling in futures markets that we suspect is intended to destroy momentum built up in preceding days.

Gold Futures - Dump

Typical Gold Dump in Futures Market, February 2nd 12:36 PM to 12:45 PM

These are merely suspicions. We have no definitive proof. But those suspicions are now being put to the test.

BRICS+

China and Russia have been uncomfortable with US dominance of the global financial system and have long been making efforts to establish an independent reserve currency as an alternative to the Dollar. Their efforts failed to gain much traction until Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. US and European sanctions — blocking Russian assets held by European banks and removing Russian banks from the SWIFT payments system — alerted non-aligned countries to their vulnerability should they ever offend the US or its European allies.

The response has been an expansion of the BRICS bloc, with Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Argentina, Egypt and Ethiopia invited to join in August 2023. Argentina has since declined the invitation — after the election of Javier Millei — and the Saudis are “still considering”. The shift is motivated by a desire to reduce dependence on the US Dollar for trade — and US Treasuries as a reserve asset.

Central bank (CB) gold purchases are growing.

Central Bank Gold Purchases

Jan Nieuwenhuijs recently suggested that CB purchases may be far higher than official declarations (red below). He estimates that 80% of unreported purchases are made indirectly on behalf of CBs.

Central Bank Gold Purchases including estimates of Undisclosed Purchases

PBOC purchases account for a large percentage of unofficial buying.

PBOC Gold Purchases & Holdings

Crude Oil Payments

Major oil importers like India and China have signed agreements to pay for oil in their own currencies but that is likely to leave exporters like Russia and the Saudis holding excess Rupees and Yuan that they do not need and are unlikely to want to hold as reserves.

Non-USD trade in oil would only be viable if net trade imbalances are settled by transfer of gold between trading partners, with surplus countries like the Saudis purchasing gold from the Chinese with Yuan that are surplus to their needs. Demand for gold is expected to rise exponentially as the BRICS bloc expands and oil trades are increasingly settled in domestic currencies. Major oil importers like India and China are likely to require larger gold holdings in order to settle trade imbalances with oil exporters like the Saudis and Russians. Oil exporters are expected to recycle gold to fund purchases of goods and services from non-BRICS trading partners but the total “float” of gold in the system is likely to increase.

We continue to see a growing pile of evidence that gold is re-becoming an oil currency, which by virtue of the oil market alone being some 12-15x the size of the global physical gold market annually, suggests a continued relentless bid for gold in coming quarters and years that will puzzle many on Wall Street. ~ Luke Gromen

Physical Gold Flows

Physical gold is flowing out of London and Zurich as Asian buyers bid up prices.

A recent Doomberg interview pointed out that Gold quoted on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is at a premium of between $20 and $40 per ounce above the London Gold price. Friday’s PM Benchmark of CNY 511.40 per gram converts to $2200 per troy ounce, compared to the London spot price of $2165 per ounce — a premium of $35.

Arbitrage will ensure a steady flow of physical gold out of London and Zurich for as long as that premium is maintained.

Shanghai Gold Exchange: Yuan/Gram of Gold

Gold in CNY/gram as quoted on Shanghai Gold Exchange
(red = AM, blue = PM benchmark price).

Conclusion

Stocks continue their bull run, supported by strong liquidity in financial markets and weakening long-term Treasury yields.

The Dollar has diverged, however, rising sharply against the Euro and China’s Yuan. Dollar Index breakout above 105 would warn of an up-trend with an immediate target of 107.

Gold is retracing to test support at $2150 per ounce. Respect would signal another advance. But we need to be careful of the rising Dollar. Breakout above 105 would be likely to weaken demand for Gold.

Brent crude is testing support at $84 per barrel. Respect is likely and would confirm our target of $94. High crude oil prices would be expected to increase inflationary pressures in the months ahead and force the Fed to delay rate cuts. The resultant rise in long-term Treasury yields would be bearish for stocks.

We expect a new paradigm to emerge, where the Gold price is no longer determined by Western buyers seeking an inflation hedge to protect against erosion of currency purchasing power and as a safe haven when risk is high. Marginal buyers are likely to be BRICS+ (the expanded BRICS bloc) central banks, seeking to use gold to settle trade imbalances from oil and gas imports paid for in non-USD currencies. The supply of Gold is inelastic, so the price is expected to rise steeply until a new equilibrium is reached.

Acknowledgements

What really drives inflation?

Every month, after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chairman Jay Powell fronts the media and tells everyone how the Fed is determined to maintain the fed funds rate in the same 5.25% – 5.50% range in order to contain inflation. But he is well aware that the Fed funds rate has had close to zero impact on inflation.

CPI peaked in June 2022 when the fed funds rate was an eye-watering (sic) 1.25%. CPI then plunged sharply when the Fed was still in the early stages of hiking rates. The lag between rate hikes and the resultant decline in inflation is normally 12 to 18 months. Now the Fed would have us believe that CPI declined in anticipation of rate cuts.

CPI & Fed Funds Rate Target (Minimum)

Financial conditions did tighten when the Fed introduced QT, with the Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index (FCI) rising to -0.1%. But then FCI started a sharp decline in June 2023, when the Fed was still hiking rates, indicating monetary easing.

Chicago Fed Financial Conditions Index

Rising interest rates and tighter financial conditions had even less than usual impact on consumer spending because of a strong upsurge in personal savings during the pandemic. A large percentage of government transfers were not spent but went to increase bank deposits.

Government Transfers & Commercial Bank Deposits

Energy is driving inflation

The primary cause of the strong upsurge in CPI in ’21/22 was energy prices. The chart below shows how energy CPI (orange) led CPI (red) higher, reaching a peak of 41.5% in June 2022 — the same month that CPI peaked at 9.0%. Energy prices then plunged to a low of -16.7% in June 2023. CPI followed, reaching a low of 3.1% in the same month. Since then, CPI energy has recovered to close to zero, producing a floor in the annual CPI rate.

CPI & Energy CPI

Energy CPI is a relatively small component of CPI — 6.6% of total CPI — but it is a major cost component of most other variables. Food, for example, requires energy for planting, irrigation, harvesting, processing, refrigeration and transport. Cement requires energy for heating limestone in kilns, crushing and transportation. Steel needs energy for extraction and transport of iron ore, smelting and transportation. Even online services. The latest AI data centers require up to 1 GW of electricity capacity — enough to power 300,000 homes.

The most important determinant of energy prices is crude oil. Nymex light crude peaked between March and June 2022 at prices of $100 to $120 per barrel before commencing a prolonged decline to between $70 and $80 by December of the same year.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

Conclusion

Raising the fed funds rate has had little impact on actual inflation. Rate hikes are more about restoring the Fed’s credibility as an inflation hawk after a disastrous performance in 2021. High energy prices and easy monetary policy and were a recipe for inflation.

CPI & Fed Funds Rate Target (Minimum)

The sharp decline in CPI in the 12 months to June ’23 was caused by falling energy prices. Energy CPI fell from an annual increase of 41.5% in June 2022 to a low of -16.7% a year later.

Nymex light crude has now broken resistance at $80 per barrel. Expect retracement to test the new support level but respect is likely and would confirm another advance, with a target of $90 per barrel.

Nymex WTI Light Crude

A sharp rise in crude prices would be likely to cause a significant upsurge in CPI — and long-term interest rates. With bearish consequences for stocks and long-duration bonds.