The dial on the left indicates bull or bear market status, while the one on the right reflects stock market drawdown risk.
Bull/Bear Market
The ASX Bull-Bear Market indicator is at 46%, signaling a bear market. Three of the six leading indicators signal risk-off, while the US bull-bear index remains at 40% (with a 40% weighting).
The ASX 200 Financials Index (XFJ) rallied to above its 50-week weighted moving average, but remains in a downtrend unless there is a breakout above the recent high at 9250.
Stock Pricing
ASX stock pricing rose to 73.86 percent, compared to 67.85 two weeks ago and a high of 85.83 in February.
Conclusion
The ASX bull-bear indicator signals a bear market, while the risk of a significant drawdown remains high.
Acknowledgments
- NAB Monthly Business Survey: January 2025
- ABS: Private Dwelling Approvals
- Trading Economics: China Business Indicators
- Morningstar: ASX All Ords & ASX 20 Statistics
- Market Index: ASX Statistics
- ABS: National Accounts
- ASX: Historical Market Statistics
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.