Key Points
- Iran fires missiles at shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.
- Brent Crude futures (Sep’26) hardly moved.
July 6 (Reuters) – Iran’s Revolutionary Guards fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, Axios reported, citing two U.S. officials.
Two commercial ships suffered significant damage but had no casualties, the report said, citing a U.S. official.
Separately, Britain’s maritime security agency said a tanker caught fire after being hit by an unknown projectile east of Oman’s Limah early on Tuesday.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency (UKMTO) said early on Tuesday that the tanker was struck on its port side while travelling southbound about 8 nautical miles (15 km) east of Limah, causing a fire. No casualties or environmental impact had been reported.
….Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned ships via maritime radio over the weekend that “our missiles and drones are ready to fire at you,” the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday, quoting from a recording it obtained.
Brent Crude (September ’26 Futures) remains close to $70 per barrel.
Crude inventories are falling steeply as the US releases oil from reserves to keep prices low. The EIA chart below shows US crude & petroleum inventories, including strategic (SPR) reserves, fell to 1.53 billion barrels.
However, low prices are not reaching the gas pump. 3-2-1 crack spreads at close to $60 per barrel indicate that refiners have increased their profit margins rather than passing on cost savings to consumers.
Conclusion
There is no final peace deal in sight. Crude oil supplies remain under threat.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are attempting to establish control over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. They see closing the Strait as their best means of deterring future attacks from the US and Israel. However, its potency as a negotiating tool will diminish after the November midterms.
Acknowledgments
- CoinDesk: Bitcoin
- CNBC: Brent Crude ICE Futures
- Reuters: Iran fires missiles at commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz, Axios reports
- HFI Research: The Consensus Is Wrong About The Oil Market
- EIA: Crude & Petroleum Inventories
- Energy Stock Channel: 3-2-1 Crack Spreads
Notes
- Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.