Key Points
- We are in the midst of an inflationary boom, driving stock prices and home prices to record highs.
- But that is about to collide with a global oil shock of unprecedented proportions.
The inflationary boom is driven by:
Tax cuts from Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.”
Fed rate cuts. The Fed has two mandates: first, to maintain price stability by keeping inflation in check; second, to keep the economy at full employment. The Unemployment Rate (blue) was already low, below 5.0%, and Core PCE Inflation (red), the Fed’s favored inflation measure, was above its 2.0% target, which did not justify rate cuts.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.
Thanks, makes sense… have you listened to Eric Nuttall? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AtjwbuzKgo8
Feels like the markets are whistling past the graveyard.
Hi Marc,
Thanks for the Eric Nuttall referral. He seems very knowledgeable on potential oil shortages.