Key Points
- Headline CPI jumped to 3.8% in April in response to rising energy prices.
- We expect Food CPI to jump sharply as rising costs pass through the supply chain over the next few months.
- 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.46%, a bearish sign for stocks, but the Dow continues to test resistance at 50,000.
- The silver breakout above $80 per ounce continues.
- Surplus Gold and silver inventories in the US have been depleted, which will likely increase upward pressure on prices when the Persian Gulf crisis is resolved.
The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped to 3.8% for the 12 months to April 2026, up from 3.3% in March. Core CPI (excluding food and energy) increased more gradually to 2.7% in April, up from 2.6% in the previous month.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.