Mr Oliver Gopoly, Australian banking executive. Originally aired on ABC TV’s The 7.30 Report: 4/11/2010:
Clarke and Dawe – Important new research reveals enterprise doomed from the start
Clark and Dawe draw parallels between the Australian parliamentary system and the Titanic:
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Reserve Bank Governor greets Clarke and Dawe ~ ABC 7.30
Glenn Stevens, Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, meets Clarke and Dawe and responds to criticism from union leader Paul Howes.
BRYAN DAWE: Mr Howes says the Reserve Bank has the wrong interest rate policy and fears for job in industry.
JOHN CLARKE: Does he? Does he say why?
BRYAN DAWE: He says the cost of Australian goods are too high.
JOHN CLARKE: Is the term “cost of labour” used at any point in his no-doubt-penetrating analysis of what the adults are thinking about in the other room?…..
via 7.30 – ABC.
Forex: Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar
Canada’s Loonie continues its narrow consolidation, having withstood falling crude oil prices over the last two weeks. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal a primary advance to the 2011 high of $1.06*. Failure of support at $0.995 is less likely but would warn of a correction to primary support at $0.95.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
Weaker commodity prices are dragging the Aussie Dollar lower. On the weekly chart we can see the Aussie testing medium-term support at $1.02. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggest a strong up-trend. In the longer term, breakout above $1.085 would offer a target of $1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20
On the daily chart, the Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at $1.045. Breach of its descending trendline indicates that the correction has weakened. Recovery above $1.045 would indicate the start of a fresh advance to test the 2012 high of $1.085.
The Aussie Dollar is also retracing for another test of support against the South African Rand — at R7.90/R8.00. Momentum has fallen sharply and failure of support would warn of a correction to the long-term ascending trendline, around R7.50.
ASX 200 bullish ascending triangle
The weekly chart of the ASX 200 shows the index testing resistance at 4350/4400 in a bullish ascending triangle. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. We need to be cautious because of bearish sentiment in the US and Europe but breakout above 4400 would signal the start of a primary up-trend, with an initial advance to 5000*.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 3800 ) = 5000
Forex: Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar
Canada’s Loonie continues its narrow consolidation between $0.995 and $1.01 but falling crude prices warn that a correction is likely. Breakout below $0.995 and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would both signal a correction. Upward breakout is currently unlikely but would signal a primary advance to $1.06*.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
On the daily chart, the Aussie Dollar found short-term support at $1.025 and is now rallying to test resistance at $1.045. Respect would indicate continuation of the correction, with a target of parity. Weaker commodity prices increase the likelihood of a strong correction. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.04 – 1.02 ) = 1.00
Australia's Surplus Dreams Are Just That – WSJ.com
Cynthia Koons: Not only were [Australian] exports down, but imports declined too. Imports of goods for consumption fell 7%, reflecting caution in Australian households. Capital goods imports fell by 5%, a number that should be a particular concern for policy makers: A slowdown in purchases of machinery and equipment could be an early sign that investment in Australia’s resources boom is weakening.
via Heard on the Street: Australia’s Surplus Dreams Are Just That – WSJ.com.
Forex: Aussie Dollar & Canada's Loonie
The Aussie Dollar broke medium-term support at $1.04 — in response to lower than expected resources exports to China and RBA hints at further rate cuts. Expect a strong correction, testing parity and possibly primary support at $0.97. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would indicate trend weakness but suggests a ranging market, with the indicator oscillating around zero, rather than a primary down-trend.
Canada’s Loonie is more resilient because of stronger crude oil prices. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.01 would signal an advance to $1.06. Reversal below $0.995 is less likely but would warn of another correction — especially if crude oil weakens.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
Australia: ASX 200 advances
The ASX 200 broke medium-term resistance at 4300, indicating an advance to 4400. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 4400 would confirm, offering an initial target of 4800*.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800
The biggest obstacle to an ASX up-trend is weakness in China. Signs that a bottom is forming would boost the ASX but that is not evident at present.
Australia: Super fund returns
Overall, for the 15 years to June 2011, the average ROR for the superannuation industry was positive, with a 15-year average ROR of 5.2 per cent per annum. The average industry-wide ROR, when adjusted for the 2.7 per cent per annum inflation, provided a real return of 2.5 per cent per annum.
Most funds which existed for the whole period had a 15-year average fund-level ROR of between 3.9 and 6.5 per cent per annum.