Key Points
- Brent crude futures are trading below $100 per barrel, as President Trump says Iran wants to “work a deal.”
- However, the physical market shows signs of distress, with Forties Blend close to $149 per barrel on Monday.
- The “genie is out of the bottle,” and the Gulf states are unlikely to settle for a deal that leaves Iran with the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
- A US blockade of Iranian ports could escalate tensions with China.
- Lithium miners jumped on sharp increases in EV sales in Europe and other countries that saw steep increases in energy prices.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.