A Lull in Hostilities

Key Points

  • Hostilities in Lebanon faded.
  • Tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased.
  • Brent Crude futures fell to $77.64 per barrel.
  • 2-year Treasury yields rose above 4.20% amid expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy.

Brent Crude futures (Aug’26) fell to $77.64 per barrel on reports of a lull in hostilities in Lebanon.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE August'26)

Prices fell more than 3% on Monday after ​the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks, ​and as officials reported a lull in hostilities in Lebanon under the ⁠broader agreement.

“The gradual increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh ​on the market,” said ING analysts in a note.

Two crude tankers with just under 2 ​million barrels of oil sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, ship-tracking data showed, in a sign that traffic was picking up following weaker flows on Sunday due to concerns over passage through the ​waterway. (Reuters)

The text of the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran can be separated into two parts. The MOU is mostly “talks about talks” where the parties merely agree to negotiate the terms of a Final Deal, but it contains an agreement to cease hostilities while negotiations take place, including:

  • Immediate termination of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.
  • Ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
  • The US to lift its blockade of Iranian shipping.
  • The US to waive existing sanctions against Iranian crude oil and petroleum exports.
  • The US to release frozen or restricted funds and assets belonging to Iran.
  • Iran will make its “best efforts” to ensure the safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The MOU offers Iran a financial reward in exchange for allowing safe passage through the Strait. The deal is tenuous, and already the IRGC has threatened to close the Strait due to ongoing hostilities in Lebanon.

Israel is not a signatory to the MOU, and will not readily agree to the first two terms if it feels that they compromise their national defense. The Gulf States are also not signatories, and will similarly defend their national interests.

Financial Markets

2-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.209%, more than 45 basis points above the Fed funds target range, in expectation of tighter Fed monetary policy.

2-Year Treasury Yield (CNBC)

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index below -0.50 continues to signal easy monetary conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin1 is testing primary support at 60,000, signaling a shift in financial markets to risk-off. A breach of support would warn of a market-wide contraction.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

10-year Treasury yields firmed to 4.51%, suggesting another test of resistance at 4.75%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Stocks

SpaceX retreated to test its June 12 opening price of 150.

SpaceX

The Magnificent 7 also lost ground, with the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) retreating below support at 68 on the weekly chart below. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of a correction.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

The S&P 500 also shows signs of secondary selling pressure.

S&P 500

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar strengthened amid expectations of higher short-term interest rates. Breakout of the US Dollar Index above 100.50 indicates an advance to 103, but first expect retracement to test support at 100.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce, with declining Trend Index peaks warning of selling pressure. A breach of $4,000 would indicate another decline, but beware of a bear trap. Gold is in a secular uptrend that we expect to last for decades.

Spot Gold

Energy

The Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index broke support at 575, signaling a primary downtrend.

Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index

Uranium

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF2 (URNM) broke primary support at 58, also signaling a downtrend.

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)

Copper

Copper is testing support at 13,500, and declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. A breach of support would warn of a bull trap, with a decline to test the 50-week moving average.

Copper

Sprott Copper Miners ETF2 (COPP) reinforces the bearish copper chart, retreating from resistance between 44 and 45 while Trend Index peaks below zero warn of persistent selling pressure.

Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)

Lithium

Sprott Lithium Miners ETF2 (LITP) is also retreating, and a fall below 13 would test primary support at 11.

Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)

Critical Minerals

Sprott Critical Materials ETF2 (SETM) shows similar signs of selling pressure, and another test of primary support at 30 is likely.

Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)

Conclusion

Brent Crude and oil and gas stocks are falling as the Strait of Hormuz is tentatively reopened, but the real test will be the impact of global strategic reserves. A continued decline would cause a rebound in energy prices.

Financial markets are shedding high-risk assets amid expectations of tighter monetary policy. Declining Trend Index peaks on the S&P 500 signal a correction.

The Dollar is strengthening, and Gold is headed for another test of support at $4,000 per ounce, but these moves run counter to their secular trends where we expect Dollar weakness and Gold strength.

Energy metals are experiencing a broad sell-off amid expectations of lower oil and gas prices if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Uncertainty remains high, and we expect elevated volatility in the months ahead. We adopt a defensive stance, with minimal exposure to high-multiple growth stocks and long-duration financial assets. Value stocks with stable income streams and short-duration financial assets are a haven in times of volatility, but we still expect a secular uptrend in Gold and maintain our position.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
  2. We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.

PPI Shock But Optimism Over Rate Cut Grows

Key Points

  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) grew by 1.06% in May, for the second straight month, at an annualized rate of 12.7%.
  • Annual PPI growth rose to 6.4%.
  • Bank credit growing faster than real GDP reflects rising inflationary pressure.
  • Bitcoin continues to test support at 60,000, signaling risk-off across financial markets.
  • Stocks and Gold are rising as optimism over a peace deal grows.

The monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) grew 1.06% in May, matching the April figure, with an annualized rate of 12.7%.

Producer Price Index (PPI) - Monthly

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Bond Market Deja Vu from 2022

Key Points

  • Investors are dumping long-term government bonds, with the yield on 30-year Treasuries rising to 5.13%.
  • Sovereign bonds across the UK, the EU, and Japan are all affected by the sell-off.
  • The S&P 500 and the Dow retreated on Friday by 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively.
  • Gold and silver fell steeply.
  • Copper, Lithium, Critical Materials, and Uranium are also experiencing a sell-off.
  • President Trump hinted at another major strike on Iran, with his Sunday “The Clock is Ticking” post on Truth Social.
  • Brent futures jumped to above $111 per barrel early Monday.

Investors are dumping long-term government bonds. The 30-year Treasury yield broke resistance at 5.0%, rising to 5.13% on Friday before easing slightly to 5.12% early Monday.

30-Year Treasury Yield

High bond yields, above the rate of inflation, increase the risk of a solvency crisis where the borrower can’t meet its interest payments. Issuing new debt to cover interest payments accelerates debt growth, causing debt-to-GDP to spiral out of control.

UK Gilts 30-year yield jumped to 5.85%.

30-Year UK Gilts Yield

The French 30-year climbed to 4.67%.

30-Year UK Gilts Yield

Italian 30-year yields are at 4.75%.

30-Year UK Gilts Yield

France and Italy have higher debt-to-GDP ratios than the UK. The primary reason they enjoy lower yields is that their long-term yields are suppressed. The Bank of England, on the other hand, is shrinking its balance sheet to restore fiscal stability.

The yield on the 30-year German Bund is even lower because of Germany’s strong fiscal position, with much lower debt levels.

30-Year German Bund Yield

The Japanese 30-year yield is shooting upwards. JGB yields should be much higher because of Japan’s precarious debt-to-GDP ratio. However, the Bank of Japan buys government bonds (JGBs) to suppress the yield and avoid a solvency crisis.

Adding to the selloff on Monday was news that Japan’s government will likely issue fresh debt as part of funding for a planned extra budget to cushion the economic blow from the war, worsening already strained government finances. Yields on ​the 30-year Japanese government bond (JGB) jumped more than 10 bps to their highest on record at 4.200% while the 10-year yield touched its highest since October 1996 ​at 2.800%. (Reuters)

The yield on the 30-year JGB has since weakened slightly to 4.10%.

30-Year JGB Yield

The chart below, by Robin Brooks, compares long-term government bond yields (on the left axis) to countries’ debt-to-GDP ratios (on the bottom axis). Yields in Japan (JP), Greece (GR), and Italy (IT) are being suppressed, while yields in Australia (AU), New Zealand (NZ), and the UK (GB) are higher due to more conservative central bank policies.

JGB Yield & Debt-to-GDP Ratio

Why are Long-term Yields Rising?

There are several overlapping reasons why long-term yields are rising:

Increased defense spending expands government deficits and raises debt-to-GDP ratios, increasing the risk of fiscal dominance.

Fiscal dominance is where the central bank prioritizes bond market stability over currency stability, lowering interest rates while tolerating higher inflation, to prevent a solvency crisis in the bond market.

The US-Iran conflict has caused oil shortages, driving crude oil prices higher. High oil prices are fueling a steep rise in inflation, increasing the risk of capital erosion for bond investors.

The US Fed has entered into a $100 billion currency swap agreement with the United Arab Emirates. The facility will help the UAE to survive the loss of oil revenues while the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Further currency swaps with other Gulf States will likely follow. The currency swaps are effectively a medium-term loan from the Fed, but risk becoming a standing facility if the conflict in the Gulf is not quickly resolved. Their primary purpose is to avoid the Gulf States selling reserves to make up for lost oil revenue. The sell-off of hundreds of billions of US Treasuries would flood the market and drive up yields.

The AI boom has driven a massive surge in capital spending by mega-cap technology companies as they vie for market share in a rapidly expanding market. Much of the capital spending is funded through long-term debt issuance, leading to a steep increase in the supply of high-quality long-term debt.

US-Iran Conflict

President Donald Trump on Sunday again threatened Iran:

“For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!” (CNBC)

Trump’s post caused a sharp jump in Brent crude futures prices when the market opened on Monday.
Brent Crude Futures (ICE July'26)

Stocks & Financial Markets

The S&P 500 retreated below 7500, falling 1.2% on Friday.

S&P 500

The Dow similarly retreated below 50,000, falling 1.1%. A decline below support at 49,000 would signal a correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Bitcoin1 retreated below support at 80,000, warning of further market risk aversion.

Bitcoin (BTC)

10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.6%. The breakout above 4.5% offers a short-term target of 4.75%. Rising Trend Index troughs indicate strong upward pressure on long-term yields.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

A Dollar shortage is driving up the US Dollar Index as global markets struggle with crude oil shortages and rising prices, a fiscal crisis among Gulf States that have lost their primary source of revenue, and lower US trade deficits.

Dollar Index

The Dollar enjoyed similar strong demand after Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, followed by a steep fall in November, when energy markets had stabilized.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing support at 4500. A breach of 4400 would signal a test of 4000, but respect of support remains more likely.

Spot Gold

In 2022, Gold initially shot up after Russia’s 24 February invasion of Ukraine, but then declined for 6 months until energy markets stabilized and the Dollar weakened.

Spot Gold

Silver fell steeply last week and is headed for a test of support at 71.

Spot Silver

Energy

Brent crude continues its uptrend, and another test of resistance at $120 per barrel is likely.

Brent Crude

The Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index respected support at 580, headed for a test of resistance at 620. Trend Index troughs above zero signal buying pressure.

Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index

Uranium

Uranium is taking a beating, with the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF2 (URNM) breaking secondary support at 64. A breach of support at 58 would signal a primary downtrend.

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)

Lithium

All strategic materials are under pressure, even Lithium, which has enjoyed strong demand from booming EV sales. Sprott Lithium Miners ETF2 (LITP) broke its new support level at 16.50. Follow through below 15 would signal a correction.

Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)

Critical Minerals

Critical materials show similar selling pressure, with Sprott Critical Materials ETF2 (SETM) testing support at 35.50, while a lower Trend Index peak warns of selling pressure.

Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)

Copper

Copper retreated below 14,000 after a strong run-up.

Copper

Sprott Copper Miners ETF2 (COPP) reflects similar selling pressure, breaking initial support at 42, while a lower Trend Index peak signals selling pressure.

Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)

Conclusion

We expect a similar playbook to 2022, after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine: rising energy prices, followed by rising long-term bond prices, and a stronger Dollar.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 suffered a 26% drawdown in 2022, and stock prices will likely weaken, though partly cushioned by the AI boom. We also expect weakness in Gold, Silver, and strategic materials like Uranium, Lithium, Critical Minerals, and Copper — until energy markets stabilize.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
  2. We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.

Silver and Lithium Shine

Key Points

  • Silver broke through resistance at $80 per ounce, signaling a fresh advance.
  • Gold remains rangebound.
  • Oil & Gas stocks are weak, while crack spreads are widening.
  • Copper, Uranium, and Critical Materials show signs of buying pressure, following the Lithium breakout.

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S&P 500 Rallies on Job Gains, But Peace Deal Hopes Crash

Key Points

  • President Trump rejects Iran’s peace proposal.
  • Iran continued attacks on its Gulf neighbors.
  • Brent crude July futures jump to $104.50 per barrel.
  • Confidential intelligence sources say that Iran can survive a US blockade for at least 3-4 months.
  • The US labor market added 115,000 jobs in April 2026, while unemployment held steady at 4.3%.
  • The S&P 500 reached a new high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average threatens a breakout.

DUBAI/WASHINGTON, May 10 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump on Sunday rejected Iran’s response to a US proposal for peace talks, dashing hopes for an imminent end to the 10-week-old conflict….

“I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, without giving further detail. Oil prices rose $3 a barrel after the United States and Iran failed to reach agreement.

Iran’s proposal includes a demand for compensation for war damages and an ​emphasis on Iranian sovereignty over the strait, state media said. It also calls on the US to end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and end a US ban on Iranian oil ​sales, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said.

Brent Crude July’26 (Nymex) futures jumped to $104.50 per barrel while December’26 futures (orange) rallied to $89.25 per barrel. December prices reflect the oil market’s longer-term assessment of crude shortages. Damage to existing production and shipping facilities will take time to repair, even if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Brent Crude Nymex Futures (July'26 & Dec'26)

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Trump Talks “Peace Deal” But Nothing Stops This Train

Key Points

  • President Trump again baits financial markets with the prospect of a peace agreement.
  • Brent Crude (July’26 futures) is testing support at $100 per barrel.
  • However, the crude market faces critical shortages even if a peace deal is signed.
  • The S&P 500 rallied to a new high at 7365, while the Dow threatens a breakout above 50,000.
  • The ISM Services PMI warns that growth is slowing, while soaring prices signal inflationary pressures.
  • Lithium is in a strong uptrend, while Copper, Critical Materials, and Uranium show signs of a recovery.
  • The RBA hiked rates this week and would like to hold for a while, but rising prices may force further hikes.

ISLAMABAD/WASHINGTON/TEL AVIV, May 7 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump predicted a swift end to the ​war with Iran as Tehran considered a U.S. peace proposal that sources said would formally end the conflict while leaving unresolved key U.S. demands that Iran suspend ‌its nuclear program and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

An Iranian foreign ministry spokesperson cited by Iran’s ISNA news agency said Tehran would convey its response, while Iranian lawmaker Ebrahim Rezaei, a spokesperson for parliament’s powerful foreign policy and national security committee, described the proposal as “more of an American wish-list than a reality.”

“They want to make a deal. We’ve had very good talks over the last 24 hours, and it’s very possible that we’ll make ​a deal,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office on Wednesday, saying later “it’ll be over quickly.”

Trump has repeatedly played up the prospect of an agreement to end the war ​that started on February 28, so far without success. The two sides remain at odds over a variety of difficult issues, such as Iran’s nuclear ⁠ambitions and its control of the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war handled one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply.

A Pakistani source and another source briefed on the mediation ​said an agreement was close on a one-page memorandum that would formally end the conflict. That would kick off discussions to unblock shipping through the strait, lift U.S. sanctions on Iran and set ​curbs on Iran’s nuclear program, the sources said.

A separate senior Pakistani official involved in the talks told Reuters on Thursday that negotiators were hopeful of reaching a deal but noted gaps between the sides remained.

Brent Crude (July futures), buoyed by optimism over a prospective peace deal, is retracing to test support at $100 per barrel.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE July'26)

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S&P 500 Uptrend Against Gold

Key Points

  • The S&P 500 index made a new high at 7230, reversing its long-term downtrend against Gold.
  • However, the Dow is struggling to break resistance at 50,000.
  • The ISM Manufacturing PMI indicates the sector is expanding, but producer prices are soaring.
  • Lithium is in a strong uptrend, while Copper remains rangebound.
  • Japanese intervention to support the Yen underlines the long-term reason for buying Gold.

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Crude Up, Gold Down

Key Points

  • President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait and discusses an extended US naval blockade.
  • Brent crude futures (June’26) jump to more than $120 per barrel.
  • The Fed kept interest rates on hold in Jerome Powell’s last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.
  • Powell says he will stay on as governor for “an undetermined period of time.”

During a Tuesday meeting with oil executives, President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait and discussed extending the US naval blockade. (GroundNews)

WASHINGTON, April 29 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump met with top officials from Chevron (CVX.N) and other energy companies on Tuesday to talk about possible steps to calm oil markets if the blockade of Iranian ports continues for months, a White House official said on Wednesday.

The talks focused on U.S. oil production, oil futures, ​shipping and natural gas, the official said.

“They discussed the steps President Trump has taken to alleviate global oil markets ​and steps we could take to continue the current blockade for months if needed and minimize ⁠impact on American consumers,” the White House official said.

Talk of an extended blockade and a sharp fall in US inventories drove June’26 Brent crude futures to above $120 per barrel.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE June'26)

The EIA report for the week ended April 26 showed an accelerating decline in crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

EIA Crude Inventory (incl. SPR)

The inventory chart above includes the SPR, shown separately below.

EIA Crude Inventory (incl. SPR)

No Change at the Fed

The Fed left its target range for the funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting. There were four dissenting votes on the FOMC, with three opposing language that signaled possible future rate cuts, while Trump appointee Stephen Miran called for an immediate reduction. (AP/EuroNews)

Jerome Powell’s term as Chair ends on May 15, with his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, likely to be sworn in before the next meeting, following approval by the Senate Banking Committee.

Powell indicated that he intends to remain on the Federal Reserve’s governing board for “an undetermined period of time”, citing concerns about what he described as “unprecedented” legal attacks by the Trump administration on the central bank.

Mr Powell said he would wait for the conclusion of an investigation into the Fed’s building renovations before stepping down fully.

“I’m waiting for the investigation to be well and truly over, with finality and transparency,” he said. “I will leave when I think it appropriate to do so.” His term as governor expires in January 2028.

Powell’s decision to stay on forces the resignation of Stephen Miran, a temporary Trump appointee, to make way for the appointment of Warsh as governor. The move denies President Trump the opportunity to nominate a replacement, which would give him greater influence over Fed monetary policy.

Long-term Treasury yields are rising in response to higher oil prices and the improved prospect of an independent Fed. 10-Year yields are expected to test resistance at 4.5%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

We expect the S&P 500 to retrace to test new support at 7000 as a looming global oil shortage overshadows robust quarterly earnings.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated below short-term support at 49K, suggesting another correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Gold found support at $4,500 per ounce, but the rally may be short-lived if oil prices keep rising.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

An early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely. We expect a prolonged closure, with shortages driving crude oil prices to between $140 and $150 per barrel by the end of May.

Higher crude prices increase upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields, which would be bearish for stocks.

We also expect Gold to test support at $4,000 per ounce as Gulf states and major oil importers draw on their reserves.

Acknowledgments

Rising Crude is Bearish for Gold

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures (June’26) rose to $103.68 per barrel.
  • The S&P 500 reached a new high. However, the bull signal has not been confirmed by the Dow and the S&P 1500 Transportation Index.
  • The Fed has injected $170 billion of liquidity into financial markets since December 2025.
  • 10-year Treasury yields found support at 4.25%, while gold is headed for another test of support at $4,500 per ounce.

Brent crude futures (June’26) broke resistance at $100 per barrel and are now testing $104.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE June'26)
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Dire Straits

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures are trading below $100 per barrel, as President Trump says Iran wants to “work a deal.”
  • However, the physical market shows signs of distress, with Forties Blend close to $149 per barrel on Monday.
  • The “genie is out of the bottle,” and the Gulf states are unlikely to settle for a deal that leaves Iran with the capability to close the Strait of Hormuz.
  • A US blockade of Iranian ports could escalate tensions with China.
  • Lithium miners jumped on sharp increases in EV sales in Europe and other countries that saw steep increases in energy prices.

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