More Noise, No Signal

Key Points

• Following the breakdown of ceasefire talks, President Trump initiated a naval blockade on Monday to pressure Iran to restore access to the Strait of Hormuz.
• Central Command reported that nine oil tankers from Iran followed orders to turn around since the blockade began.
• On Wednesday, Iran’s military threatened to block trade through the Red Sea if the United States continues its naval blockade.
• The White House says the US remains “engaged” in “productive and ongoing” discussion with Iran.
• President Trump insists the war is “close to over” and  the stock market is “going to boom.”
• The S&P 500 makes a new high above 7000.
• Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt says the US “feels good” about the prospect of a deal, but says no date has been set for further negotiations.

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Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.