Tag: All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Falling bond yields fail to tame Gold bears

10-Year Treasury yields retreated below 3.0 percent after threatening a bond bear market for the past week.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Breakout above 3.0 percent would complete a large double bottom reversal in the secular down-trend.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Rising bond yields would be expected to weaken demand for gold as the opportunity cost of holding precious metals increases.

The other major influence on gold prices, the Dollar, continues to strengthen. A strong Dollar would weaken the Dollar-price of gold.

The Dollar Index is rallying to test resistance at 95. Penetration of the long-term descending trendline in April suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure.

Dollar Index

Spot Gold retraced to test the new resistance level at $1300/ounce — the former support level. The declining Trend Index indicates selling pressure and respect of the descending trendline would warn of a test of primary support at $1250/ounce.

Spot Gold

Australian gold stocks fared better, with the All Ordinaries Gold Index finding support at 4950 and the rising Trend Index signaling buying pressure. Respect of the long-term trendline would confirm another primary advance.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

The reason is not hard to find. The Australian Dollar is at a watershed, testing primary support at 75 US cents as the greenback rallies. A Trend Index peak below zero would warn of strong selling pressure. And breach of primary support would signal a decline to 69/70 US cents.

AUDUSD

Offering a potential bull market for Aussie gold stocks.

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Gold stocks retreat

The Dollar rally continues, with the Dollar Index heading for a test of resistance at 95. Penetration of the long-term descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure.

Dollar Index

But rising crude prices still threaten to weaken the Dollar.

WTI Light Crude

Spot Gold broke support at $1300, warning of a test of primary support at $1250/ounce as the Dollar strengthens. The declining Trend Index indicates selling pressure.

Spot Gold

A weakening Australian Dollar continues to test support at 75 US cents as the greenback rallies. Breach would offer a long-term target of 69/70 US cents.

AUDUSD

The weaker Aussie Dollar offered some respite for local gold stocks but the All Ordinaries Gold Index is retracing to test its new support level at 4950/5000. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm a fresh advance and long-term target of 6000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Aussie Gold stocks continue strong run

The Dollar rally is slowing, with the Dollar Index running into resistance at 93, ahead of the anticipated 95. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure. Retracement that respects the new support level at 91 would be a bullish sign. Breach of 88.50 is unlikely but would warn of another primary decline.

Dollar Index

Rising crude prices weaken Dollar demand.

WTI Light Crude

Spot Gold continues to test support at $1300. The declining Trend Index indicates selling pressure and a peak below zero would warn of another test of primary support at $1250/ounce.

Spot Gold

Australian gold stocks continue their strong run. Retracement of the All Ordinaries Gold Index that respects the new support level at 5000/5100 would confirm a fresh advance and long-term target of 6000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

A weakening Aussie Dollar, testing support at 75 US cents, is driving local gold prices. Breach of support would offer a long-term target of 69/70 US cents.

AUDUSD

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Aussie gold stocks breakout

The Dollar rally continues, with the Dollar Index headed for a test of resistance at 95. Penetration of the descending trendline suggests that a bottom is forming. Bullish divergence on the Trend Index indicates buying pressure.

Dollar Index

But rising crude prices weaken Dollar demand.

WTI Light Crude

Despite the Dollar rally, Spot Gold found support at $1300, with a long tail indicating buying pressure. Recovery of the Trend Index above zero would confirm.

Spot Gold

But Australian gold stocks are running ahead. Breakout of the All Ordinaries Gold Index above resistance at 5000/5100 signals a fresh advance with a long-term target of 6000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Helped by a weakening Aussie Dollar, testing support at 75 US cents. Breach of support would offer a long-term target of $0.69/$0.70.

AUDUSD

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Gold: Further weakness likely

US Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year yield breaking through 1.80 percent to signal a test of 2.0 percent. Further rises are likely on the back of stronger GDP figures for the last quarter.

10-year Treasury Yields

The Chinese Yuan continues to depreciate against the Dollar in anticipation of another rate rise from the Fed.

USDCNY

Spot gold displays a weak retracement off support at $1250/ounce, with short candles indicating a lack of conviction. Another primary decline is likely and would test primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index respected the descending trendline, suggesting another decline. Reversal below 4300 would confirm, offering a target of 4000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold selling pressure continues

Selling pressure on gold continues, with the SPDR Gold [GLD] ETF consolidating in a bearish narrow band above support at 119. Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of long-term selling pressure. Continuation of the down-trend is likely and breach of 119 would signal another decline.

SPDR Gold

Spot gold displays a similar narrow consolidation at $1250/ounce. Continuation is likely and would test primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index recovered above resistance at 4500 but has so far respected the descending trendline. Respect is likely and reversal below 4300 would signal a decline to 4000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold: The importance of $1200/ounce

Interest rates are rising, driving gold lower. Long-term Treasury yields are heading for a test of resistance at 2.0 percent but a lot depends on continued stability in financial markets.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Chinese Yuan continues its devaluation against the Dollar. Any sharp movements would spur global instability and increase demand for gold. But at present Dollar appreciation proceeds at a measured pace.

USDCNY

Selling pressure on gold has increased, reflected by the steep fall of Twiggs Money Flow on the SPDR Gold [GLD] ETF. A larger (TMF) peak near zero would warn of a long-term sell-off.

SPDR Gold

Spot gold has paused in its descent, with a short candle on the weekly chart reflecting short-term support at $1250/ounce, but expect a test of primary support at $1200.

Spot Gold

A long-term monthly chart of gold reflects the importance of support at $1200. The high of 2009, the lows of 2013, and the recent lows in April and June, all reinforce strength at $1200. Breach of this level would signal a long-term down-trend.

Spot Gold

The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index retraced to test resistance at 4500 after the recent breakout. Respect is likely and would signal decline to 4000.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold breaches $1300/ounce

Spot gold broke support at $1300/ounce warning of a test of primary support at $1200. The up-trend has lost momentum, reflected by penetration of the rising trendline, but consolidation above $1200 would suggest that the trend is intact. Breach of $1200 is now as likely, however, and would warn of a test of the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.

Spot Gold

The ASX All Ordinaries Gold Index is testing support at 4500. Breach is likely and would warn of a primary down-trend.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

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Gold approaches a watershed

Expectations of interest rate rises are growing, with 10-year Treasury yields advancing towards 2.0 percent after breaking out above 1.60.

10-Year Treasury Yields

The Chinese Yuan is easing against the US Dollar, in a managed process from the PBOC which will use up foreign reserves more slowly than a direct peg. It is also likely to minimize selling pressure on the Yuan, both from capital flight and from Chinese borrowers covering on Dollar-denominated loans.

USDCNY

Spot gold is easing, in a falling wedge formation, towards a test of medium-term support at $1300/ounce. This is a watershed moment. Breach of $1300 would warn of a test of primary support at $1200. But respect of support would suggest another test of the July high at $1375.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1375 + ( 1375 – 1300 ) = 1450

Rising interest rates and low inflation increase downward pressure on gold but uncertainty over US elections, Europe/Brexit, and the path of the Chinese economy contribute to buying support. Gold stocks serve as a useful counter-balance to growth stocks in a portfolio. If there are positive outcomes and a return to economic stability, then growth stocks will do well and gold is likely to underperform. If things goes wrong and growth stocks do poorly, gold stocks are likely to outperform.

In Australia the All Ordinaries Gold Index ($XGD) continues to test support at 4500. Respect (recovery above 5000) would signal another test of the recent highs at 5600. A weakening Australian Dollar/US Dollar would tend to mitigate the impact of a fed rate hike. Breach of 4500 is less likely but would confirm a primary down-trend.

All Ordinaries Gold Index $XGD

* Target calculation: 4500 – ( 5000 – 4500 ) = 4000

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Gold finds support

Spot Gold found support at $1325/ounce after retracing from resistance at $1350. Short candles suggest weak selling pressure. Respect of support at $1325 would signal another test of the July high at $1375. Follow-through above $1350 would confirm. Breakout above $1375 would offer a target of $1450* but expect strong resistance if the Fed appears intent on raising interest rates. Breach of support at $1300 is unlikely but would warn of a test of primary support at $1200/ounce.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1375 + ( 1375 – 1300 ) = 1450

In Australia the All Ordinaries Gold Index ($XGD) is testing support at 4500. Respect is likely and would signal a test of the recent highs around 5600. A weakening Australian Dollar/US Dollar would tend to mitigate the impact of a fed rate hike. Breach of 4500 is unlikely but would warn of trend reversal.

All Ordinaries Gold Index $XGD

* Target calculation: 5500 + ( 5500 – 4500 ) = 6500

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