All Ordinaries Gold Index Archives - Page 7 of 7

September 7, 2016

Gold rallies

Spot Gold rallied to test resistance at $1350/ounce. Momentum above zero continues to indicate a primary up-trend. Short retracement (short candles and short duration) would signal a test of the July 2016 high at $1375. Breakout above $1375 would offer a target of $1450*. Breach of support at $1300 is unlikely but would warn of a test of primary support at $1200/ounce.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1375 + ( 1375 – 1300 ) = 1450

In Australia the All Ordinaries Gold Index ($XGD) found support at 4500. Expect a test of the recent highs around 5500. The Index is likely to follow the spot gold price, provided the Australian Dollar/US Dollar remains fairly stable. Breakout above 5500 would signal a fresh advance, with a target of 6500*. Breach of 4500 is unlikely but would warn of trend reversal.

All Ordinaries Gold Index $XGD

* Target calculation: 5500 + ( 5500 – 4500 ) = 6500

June 8, 2016

Gold strengthens as Dollar weakens

Long-term interest rates continue their decline, with 10-year Treasury yields testing support at 1.65 to 1.70 percent. Breach would signal a test of the all-time (July 2012) low of 1.40 percent.

10-year Treasury yields

Gold rallied in response, breaking initial resistance at $1250/ounce to signal a test of $1300.

Gold

The Chinese appear to have resumed selling foreign reserves to support the Yuan, with USDCNY running into resistance at 6.60. PBOC sale of reserves would weaken the Dollar, boosting demand for Gold. Failure to support the Yuan is unlikely, but would increase safe haven demand for Gold from Chinese investors.

USDCNY

The Dollar Index, representing predominantly the Euro and Yen crosses, fell sharply. Breach of support at 93 would confirm the primary down-trend earlier signaled by 13-week Momentum below zero.

Dollar Index

The Australian All Ordinaries Gold Index broke through 4500 to signal another advance, with the weakening Australian Dollar adding further impetus. Gaps between trough lows (orange line) and preceding highs (brown line) indicate strong buying pressure.

All Ordinaries Gold Index

Disclosure: Our Australian managed portfolios are invested in gold stocks.

May 24, 2016

Gold: Is it flagging?

Gold is now in the fourth week of a flag formation and is testing support at $1250/ounce. The best flag signals are in weeks 3 or 4. With no immediate prospect of a breakout, this raises the question: is gold losing momentum?

Gold

Increased likelihood of a Fed interest rate hike has certainly taken some wind from the sails …..as has recent Chinese stimulus which at least postponed (but not averted) Yuan devaluation against the Dollar. While this affected short to medium-term prospects, factors driving long-term demand for gold are unaltered. From a technical view, narrow candle ranges over the last 4 days suggest increased buying at the $1250 support level. And breakout above the flag remains a buy signal ……at least into the fifth week.

Silver experienced a much sharper sell-off, but on the weekly chart still looks likely to respect support at $16.00/ounce. Respect would suggest another test of resistance at $18.00 to $18.50.

Silver

On the weekly chart gold remains on track for a test of $1300/ounce. For as long as support at $1200 holds, we retain our bullish view on gold.

Gold

* Target calculation: 1300 + ( 1300 – 1050 ) = 1550

With the added incentive of a weakening Aussie Dollar, Australian gold stocks, represented here by the All Ords Gold Index (XGD), remain in a strong primary up-trend. A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero and breakout above the recent trend channel are both bullish signs.

All Ords Gold Index (XGD)

Disclosure: Our Australian managed portfolios are invested in gold stocks.

May 12, 2016

Aussie gold stocks shine

Australian gold stocks have had a good run since the index (XGD) broke resistance at 2800. At some stage there is bound to be a correction but the up-trend now looks pretty robust, rising 13-week Money Flow confirming buying pressure.

XGD