Coverage of all major currencies and the US Dollar Index.
Brexit uncertainty is likely to continue for an extended period, with Sterling testing primary support at 1.13 against the Euro. Breach would signal a test of the 2016 low at 1.10.
The FTSE 100 retraced to test support at 7400, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term selling pressure. Respect would confirm the target of 7700*. But breach of the rising trendline is as likely, and would warn of a test of primary support at 7100.
* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700
The Dollar Index continues to test support at 96.50. The primary trend is down and breach of support is likely, signaling a decline to test the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold found support at $1250. A weaker Dollar and rising political uncertainty both favor an up-trend but rising interest rates are expected to weaken demand. Respect of support at $1250 would confirm the up-trend, while breach of $1200 would warn of another decline.
The Dollar Index is finding support at 96.50/97; the latest long tail on the weekly chart signaling buying pressure. But the primary trend is down and breach of support would signal a decline to test the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold is testing support at $1250. Fundamentals, like a weaker Dollar and rising political uncertainty, still favor an up-trend. Respect of support at $1250 would confirm. Breach of $1200 is unlikely but would warn of another decline.
Strange week on the ASX, with strong jobs numbers from the ABS causing a surge in the Aussie Dollar and a more optimistic outlook on the ASX.
But Iron ore continues to fall, headed for a test of 50.
The ASX 300 Metals & Mining index respected resistance at 3000 and is headed for a test of primary support at 2750. Breach would confirm the primary down-trend.
The ASX 300 Banks index respected resistance at 8500 and is likely to test primary support at 8000. Again, breach would confirm the primary down-trend.
The ASX 200 has formed a broadening wedge consolidation, in a down-trend. Declining Twiggs Money Flow indicates some selling pressure. Expect a test of primary support at 5600. Again, breach would warn of a primary down-trend. But a failed swing (that respects 5700) would warn that all bets are off and the index may be preparing for a rally.
The Dollar Index found short-term support at 96.50/97 but the primary trend is down. Breach of support is likely and would signal another decline. The medium-term target is the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold encountered resistance at $1300/ounce and is retracing to test support at $1250. Fundamentals, like a weaker Dollar and rising political uncertainty, still favor a continued up-trend. Respect of support at $1250 would confirm.
Sterling continues to test primary support at 1.140 Euro. Breach would signal a decline to the 2016 low at 1.100.
The FTSE 100 advance stalled, signaled by a doji on the weekly chart, with bearish divergence on Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term selling pressure. Retracement that respects support at 7400 would re-affirm the target of 7700*.
* Target: 7400 + ( 7400 – 7100 ) = 7700
The Dollar Index continues its downward slide. Breach of support at 97 indicates another decline. The medium-term target is the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold is advancing strongly, having broken resistance at $1260. The immediate target is $1300.
Iron ore is falling.
And the broader DJ-UBS Commodity Index is testing support at 82. Breach would signal a decline to test the 2015 low at 74.
But the Aussie Dollar rallied Friday, the large engulfing candle suggesting another test of resistance at 75 US cents.
Miners finished strongly, with the ASX 300 Metals & Mining index reflecting short-term buying pressure. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow recovered above zero.
The ASX 200 is testing resistance at 5800. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 5800 is likely and would suggest another test of 5950/6000.
Banks also rallied, with the ASX 300 Banks index headed for a test of 8500. Expect strong resistance.
Perhaps this UBS report had something to do with it.
I believe that the latest rally is a secondary reaction and that the ASX is headed for a down-turn, with miners and banks leading the way. But it’s no use arguing with the (ticker) tape.
A prudent speculator never argues with the tape. Markets are never wrong, opinions often are.
~ Jesse Livermore
The Dollar Index continues its downward spiral. Narrow consolidation at 97 is a bearish sign. Breach of support is likely and would indicate another decline. The primary down-trend has a medium-term target of the 2016 low at 92/93.
Spot Gold broke resistance at $1260, signaling another advance, with a target of $1300. Reversal below $1250 is unlikely but would warn of trend weakness.
The Dollar Index crashed on this week’s Trump turmoil. Follow-through below 98.50 confirms a primary down-trend with a medium-term target of the 2016 low at 93.
* Target: 99 – ( 104 – 99 ) = 94
Spot Gold found support at $1250 after Thursday’s retracement. Follow-through above $1260 would indicate another primary advance, with a target of $1300. Reversal below $1220 is unlikely but would signal a primary down-trend.
