Gold is testing resistance at $1300/ounce and is likely to follow-through to the long-term (LT) ceiling at $1350. Trend Index on the LT monthly chart displays a large triangular consolidation, indicating uncertainty. Upward breakout would signal a primary up-trend but this is unlikely, for three reasons. First, this is a bear market. A decline is more likely for that reason alone. Target for a decline is the 2015 low at $1050/ounce.
Second, a strengthening Dollar is likely to weaken Gold. I have inverted the LT chart of the Dollar Index (and Trend Index) below so that it is easier to relate to gold. As the Dollar strengthened, denoted by a LT fall on the inverted chart, Gold has weakened. The Dollar index shows a broadening consolidation since 2015, with bull and bear traps, again indicating uncertainty. At present, the Dollar is testing resistance at 97 but is likely to follow through to test LT resistance at 100. Rising Trend Index troughs above zero (remember the scale is inverted) signal buying pressure.
Third, falling Crude Oil prices are bearish for Gold. The LT chart below compares spot crude to spot gold, both adjusted for inflation to bring earlier peaks into proper perspective. The LT relationship is clear: gold and crude tend to rise and fall together. Crude prices have recently tumbled, exerting downward pressure on Gold.
Conclusion: We are witnessing a rally in Gold because of global uncertainty but the LT outlook is bearish.