Countries & Regions Archives - Page 299 of 380

April 1, 2012

Bearish divergence for US indices

Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure on the S&P 500 index. Expect a correction to test support at 1350/1370 unless we see 21-day Twiggs Money Flow recovering above 30%.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1300 + (1300 – 1150) = 1450

The Nasdaq 100 index encountered resistance at 2800. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow over the last two weeks warns of a correction. Breach of the secondary, rising trendline would indicate a correction to the long-term trendline at 2500.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 -2050 ) = 2750

Bellwether transport stock Fedex warns of a double-top reversal. Longer-term bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Breach of support at 88 would signal a primary down-trend — and declining activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 88 – ( 98 – 88 ) = 78

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

April 1, 2012

India & Singapore

India’s Sensex Index continues to test support at 17000. A trough above the zero line on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate strong buying pressure. Recovery above 18000 would confirm a primary advance to 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18000 + ( 18000 – 15000 ) = 21000

The Nifty Index displays a similar pattern. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Recovery above 5400 would signal an advance to 6200*.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4600 ) = 6200

Singapore Straits Times Index is already in a primary up-trend. Breakout above medium-term resistance at 3040 would confirm an advance to 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Japan selling pressure but South Korea holds firm

Japan’s Nikkei 225 shows medium-term selling pressure on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Expect a correction to test the new support level at 9000.

Nikkei 225 Index

* Target calculation: 10000 + ( 10000 – 9000 ) = 11000

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating below resistance at 2050. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Breakout above 2050 would indicate an advance to 2150*.

Seoul Composite Index

* Target calculation: 1950 + ( 1950 – 1750 ) = 2150

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

China weakens

China’s Shanghai Composite Index broke support at 2300, suggesting continuation of the primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at 2150 would confirm the signal, offering a target of 1800*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero indicates continuation of the primary down-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, however, is correcting to test medium-term support at 20000. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm, offering an initial target of 23000*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 21500 + ( 21500 – 20000 ) = 23000

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

April 1, 2012

Australia: ASX 200 advances

The ASX 200 broke medium-term resistance at 4300, indicating an advance to 4400. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 4400 would confirm, offering an initial target of 4800*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

The biggest obstacle to an ASX up-trend is weakness in China. Signs that a bottom is forming would boost the ASX but that is not evident at present.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 31, 2012

Australia: Super fund returns

Overall, for the 15 years to June 2011, the average ROR for the superannuation industry was positive, with a 15-year average ROR of 5.2 per cent per annum. The average industry-wide ROR, when adjusted for the 2.7 per cent per annum inflation, provided a real return of 2.5 per cent per annum.

Most funds which existed for the whole period had a 15-year average fund-level ROR of between 3.9 and 6.5 per cent per annum.

APRA: Annual Superannuation Bulletin (June 2011)

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 29, 2012

Forex: Euro, Pound & Yen

The Euro is headed for another test of resistance at $1.35. Breakout would signal an initial advance to $1.40. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would signal a primary up-trend.

EUR/USD

* Target calculation: 1.35 + ( 1.35 – 1.30 ) = 1.40

Pound Sterling displays a similar pattern, testing resistance at $1.60. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero signals a primary up-trend. Initial target for the breakout would be $1.64.

GBP/USD

* Target calculation: 1.60 + ( 1.60 – 1.56 ) = 1.64

The Greenback is retracing against the Japanese Yen, testing medium-term support at ¥82. A short retracement is likely and respect of support at ¥82 would signal another strong advance.

USD/JPY

* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 82 ) = 86

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 29, 2012

Forex: CAD, AUD, ZAR

Canada’s Loonie continues a narrow consolidation below $1.01, suggesting an upward breakout in response to higher oil prices. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero indicates a primary advance. Target for the advance would be the 2011 high of $1.06. Breach of the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of reversal.

CAD/USD

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

The Aussie Dollar reflects broader weakness in commodities. Breach of the rising trendline would warn of a decline to test primary support at $0.96, while respect would indicate another test of $1.08 — and suggest an upward breakout.

AUD/USD

Against the South African Rand, the Aussie Dollar continues to test support at R8.00. Narrow consolidation suggests a downward breakout and test of the long-term trendline at R7.50. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.

AUD/ZAR

* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 27, 2012

Budget 2012: George Osborne averts a slow national rot – Telegraph Blogs

Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: The underlying ghastliness of the British predicament remains. [Government] Spending as a share of GDP has ratcheted up from 35pc at the end of the 1990s to the Brownian peak of 51.7pc in 2009 (Eurostat), an all-time high in peace-time. It came back slightly to 50.4pc in 2010.

This debacle happened over a decade when a string of countries were slimming down the Leviathan state. Germany and Holland are now leaner than Britain.

Eurostat’s total government spending as a share of GDP for 2010 (the latest available) shows:

France 56.6
Sweden 52.7
UK 50.4
Italy 50.3
Germany 47.9
Norway 45.8
Switzerland 34.2

The US, Japan, Canada, and Korea are all much lower, and China is much lower yet.

This state burden is the macro-economic killer. It is a far more relevant than the tax take as a share of the economy, since it includes borrowing (ie deferred taxation).

via Budget 2012: George Osborne averts a slow national rot – Telegraph Blogs.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

March 26, 2012

ASX 200 response

Australia’s ASX 200 opened with a strong blue candle on the hourly chart but is now retracing to find support. Respect of short-term support at 4290 would suggest follow-through to 4320, while failure would test medium-term support at 4240/4250.

ASX 200 Index

Breakout above 4320 would indicate another test of 4400. Though we are unlikely to see a primary up-trend until China signals that it has formed a bottom.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.