Category: Countries & Regions

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UK & Europe: Madrid in trouble

The monthly chart of the Madrid General Index highlights the extent of Spain’s problems, with the index breaking support at 750 and headed for its 2009 low of 700. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line warns of a strong down-trend. Failure of 700 would signal a decline to 600*.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 750 – ( 900 – 750 ) = 600

The broader Dow Jones Europe Index is undergoing a correction on the weekly chart. The sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of medium-term support at 240 is likely and would suggest another test of primary support at 210. Respect of support is unlikely but would indicate that the primary up-trend is intact.

Dow Jones Europe Index

The FTSE 100 is testing support at 5600. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, indicating an advance to 6400*.
A 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above the zero line would signal continued buying pressure. Failure of support, however, would warn that the up-trend is weakening.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 6000 + ( 6000 – 5600 ) = 6400

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Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 Index broke the band of support at 700, warning of a correction to 650. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns the earlier primary up-trend was a false signal. Expect a test of primary support at 650. Recovery above 700 is unlikely but would indicate resumption of the primary up-trend.

TSX 60 Index

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Selling pressure on S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100

The S&P 500 is testing support at 1350 after penetrating its rising trendline. Failure of support would indicate a correction with an initial target of 1300. Respect of 1300 — and of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow — would signal that the primary up-trend is intact and may present a buying opportunity for the more adventurous.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart

On the daily chart, recovery of the S&P 500 above 1400 would suggest a new primary advance, while breach of support at 1350 would signal a correction. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure.

S&P 500 Index Daily Chart

A similar (21-day Twiggs Money Flow) bearish divergence on the Nasdaq 100 warns of a correction. Breach of the rising trendline strengthens the signal. Follow-through below 2700 would confirm, offering an initial target of 2400.

Nasdaq 100 Index

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Fedex double top

Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal with a break through the neckline at $88. Retracement found resistance at $90 and reversal below the original neckline at $88 would signal a primary down-trend. Follow-through below Tuesday’s low would confirm. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. A primary down-trend on Fedex normally warns of slowing activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

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Forex: Euro, Pound Sterling and Yen

The Euro is again testing support at $1.30. The short weekly candle at the support level warns of a downward breakout to test primary support at $1.26. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would suggest continuation of the primary down-trend. In the long term, failure of $1.26 would signal a decline to $1.18*.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.34 – 1.26 ) = 1.18

Pound Sterling ran into resistance at $1.60 and failure of short-term support at $1.58 would test $1.56. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests reversal to a primary up-trend; but this would only be confirmed by breach of resistance at $1.62.

Pound Sterling

The US Dollar is correcting against the Japanese Yen, headed for a test of support at ¥80. Respect would indicate a primary up-trend; confirmed if resistance at ¥84 is broken. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would strengthen the signal.

Japanese Yen

* Target calculation: 85 + ( 85 – 80 ) = 90

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Forex: Canadian Loonie and Aussie Dollar

Canada’s Loonie continues its narrow consolidation between $0.995 and $1.01 but falling crude prices warn that a correction is likely. Breakout below $0.995 and reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would both signal a correction. Upward breakout is currently unlikely but would signal a primary advance to $1.06*.

Canadian Loonie

* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06

On the daily chart, the Aussie Dollar found short-term support at $1.025 and is now rallying to test resistance at $1.045. Respect would indicate continuation of the correction, with a target of parity. Weaker commodity prices increase the likelihood of a strong correction. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero would strengthen the signal.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.04 – 1.02 ) = 1.00

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Robert Shiller: Financial capitalism "Taking over the world"

Yale professor Robert Shiller discusses his book “Finance and the Good Society”.

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Bruce Bartlett: How to Really Simplify the Tax Code – NYTimes.com

BRUCE BARTLETT: Prof. Michael Graetz of Columbia Law School has proposed what I believe is a MacArthur-like solution to tax reform. He would abolish the income tax for the vast bulk of Americans and replace the revenue with a 12.5 percent value-added tax. People would pay their taxes when they buy things and wouldn’t need to worry about keeping records or filing tax returns at all.

The brilliance of the Graetz plan is that no tax expenditures need to be repealed. He would simply give every family a tax exemption of $100,000, which would eliminate the income tax for 90 percent of those now filing returns.

via Bruce Bartlett: How to Really Simplify the Tax Code – NYTimes.com.

Comment:~ Why not abolish the income tax entirely? Retaining a partial system would leave taxpayers vulnerable to bracket creep as inflation pushes them into higher tax brackets. Income tax is a highly inefficient tax to administer and collect compared to broad-based taxes such as VAT. The argument that VAT increases the burden on the poor can be overcome by a subsidy (not an exemption) on basic foodstuffs and other essentials. Switching to a VAT-based system also makes the issues of income-splitting and use of tax havens redundant. One of the few negatives I can think of is that replacing income tax with a VAT may encourage offshore consumption — taking an overseas holiday for example rather than holidaying locally — in order to avoid consumption tax. I would welcome suggestions as to how this could be countered, as well as any further negatives you may think of.

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Fedex warns of economic slow-down

Bellwether transport stock Fedex completed a double top reversal, breaking through the neckline at $88. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow already warns of strong selling pressure. Follow-through below medium-term support at $85 would confirm a primary down-trend. A declining Fedex is associated with lower transport volumes and slowing activity in the broader economy.

Fedex

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"The Big Easing" by Daniel Gros | Project Syndicate

The banks that are parking their money [about €1 trillion] at the ECB receiving only 0.25% interest are clearly not the same ones that are taking out three-year loans [€1.15 trillion] at 1%. The deposits come largely from northern European banks mainly German and Dutch, and LTRO loans go largely to banks in southern Europe mainly Italy and Spain. In other words, the ECB has become the central counterparty to a banking system that is de facto segmented along national lines. The real problem for the ECB is that it is not properly insured against the credit risk that it is taking on. The 0.75% spread between deposit and lending rates yielding €7.5 billion per year does not provide much of a cushion against the losses that are looming in Greece, where the ECB has €130 billion at stake.

via “The Big Easing” by Daniel Gros | Project Syndicate.

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