Category: Australia & NZ

Posted on

Brazilian Real and South African Rand

The Brazilian Real has fallen sharply against the greenback since the government took measures to stem the inflow of funds on capital account. Breach of medium-term support at $0.56 would indicate respect of the descending trendline and another test of primary support at $0.52. In the long-term, failure of primary support would warn of a fall to $0.40.

Brazilian Real

* Target calculation: 0.52 – ( 0.64 – 0.52 ) = 0.40

The South African Rand is weakening against both the US and Aussie dollar. The Aussie (another resources currency) shows an accelerating up-trend against the Rand. Breakout above R8.30 would signal an advance to R9.00*. Accelerating up-trends, however, inevitably lead to blow-offs — as in 2008.

South African Rand

* Target calculation: 7.50 + ( 7.50 – 6.00 ) = 9.00

Posted on

Aussie and Loonie test support

The Aussie is testing support at parity against the greenback. The “iceberg” on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a primary down-trend. Failure of parity would test primary support at $0.94 and, in the long-term, breach of primary support would signal a decline to $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

63-Day Twiggs Momentum indicates a stronger down-trend on Canada’s Loonie. Failure of support at $0.975 would test primary support at $0.94 and, in the long-term, breach of the $0.94 level would signal decline to $0.80*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87

The Aussie and Loonie normally move in sympathy with the CRB Commodities Index and a CRB break of its primary down-trend would warn of a reversal on the above two currencies.

Posted on

ASX 200 runs into resistance

The ASX 200 encountered selling pressure at 4350, as indicated by the tall shadow (or “wick”) on Monday’s candle. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow also indicates medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support at 4150 would signal another test of primary support at 3850. Upward breakout is less likely but would offer a target of 4850*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4350 + ( 4350 – 3850 ) = 4850

Posted on

Aussie and Loonie hurt by dollar surge

The Aussie broke short-term support at $1.02, signaling a test of parity. The descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum “iceberg” warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of parity would indicate another visit to primary support at $0.94. In the long-term, failure of primary support would offer a target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie “peeked” briefly above parity before retreating to test support at $0.975/0.980. Descending 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, indicates a primary down-trend. Breach of support would test $0.94; and failure of primary support at $0.94 would offer a target of $0.88*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.00 – 0.94 ) = 0.88

Posted on

ASX 200 hesitant

The ASX 200 index is testing its descending trendline. Recovery above 4350 would indicate a primary advance, while reversal below 4100 would test primary support at 3850. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure.

ASX 200 Index

The longer term chart displays a bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, indicating long-term buying pressure. Breakout above 4350 would offer a weak advance but a correction that respects primary support would strengthen the signal.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

* Target calculation: 3900 – ( 4400 – 3900 ) = 3400

Posted on

ASX value trap – macrobusiness.com.au

Merrill Lynch reckons growth forecasts for next financial year have now dropped to below 10%, down from 19% last May. That is a pretty sharp fall, suggesting that, amongst other things, the deleveraging of indebted Australian households is having a deep impact. Merrill also notes that resources stocks are yet to be re-rated for the impact of lower commodity prices.

via ASX value trap – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

Posted on

Kiwi Dollar

The Kiwi respected the band of resistance at $0.80/$0.82 against the greenback, warning of a primary decline. Earlier breach of the rising trendline strengthens the signal. Failure of support at $0.75 would offer a target of $0.70.

NZDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.75 – ( 0.80 – 0.75 ) = 0.70

Posted on

Aussie Dollar

The Aussie Dollar is headed for a test of support at $1.01/$1.00. Recovery above $1.08 would complete an inverted head and shoulders, but there is still some way to go.  Breach of support would warn of another primary decline. In the long-term, failure of support at $0.94 would offer a target of $0.80, while breakout above $1.08 would indicate a target of $1.22.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Posted on

China’s leading indicators head south – macrobusiness.com.au

Take a look at the [Chinese] Leading Index’s sharp deterioration recently – there has been a clear and material deterioration in the leading index over the past couple of months. This suggests to us a substantial further fall in Chinese GDP. The last release of a week or so ago showed Chinese GDP growing at 9.1% against expectations of 9.1%. This leading index to us suggests that this growth rate will fall to 8% which is getting dangerously close to the “hard landing” territory.

via China’s leading indicators head south – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

Posted on

There goes the neighbourhood | Steve Keen’s Debtwatch

Housing credit increased by 0.5 per cent over September (see the RBA Release for details), but this involved a further deceleration of mortgage debt…..

….The most recent figures—that prices fell 1.2% over the June to September 2011 quarter, and 2.2% from September 2010 to September 2011 (see the ABS Release for details)—confirm that mortgage debt acceleration, and not “population pressure” etc., is the key determinant of house prices.

via There goes the neighbourhood | Steve Keen’s Debtwatch.

Powered by WordPress / WordPress Maintenance By WPSmart