The Aussie dollar recovered above parity, breach of the declining trendline indicating that the correction is over. Breakout of the CRB Commodities Index above 325 would be a bullish sign, suggesting another test of $1.08 against the greenback. Breakout above $1.08 remains unlikely, but would offer a long-term target of 1.20*.
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20
As we know, the Western world has passed an historic moment when credit driven growth is no longer viable. We are in the early years of a decades long deleveraging. And, as we know from the sectoral balances of macroeconomics, an economy can only grow through the expansion of the external sector or by expanding credit in either the government or private sectors. Is it useful, therefore, to be comparing Treasury’s triumphant victory over the seventies bogies of wage breakouts and inflation via a tradable goods destroying currency appreciation when the world is now set on a course in which the ONLY economic growth that has lasting value in this new milieu is that driven by expansion in the external sector?
For me the answer is absolutely not.
Treasury is busy fighting the last war. The new war is for export revenues to drive investment and growth to offset the enormous debt stocks that exist in the public and private sectors of Western economies, including Australia. That’s why destroying parts of your tradable goods sector in order to make room for other tradable goods is about as sensible as cutting off a leg so that you’ve lost weight. Sure you have, but now you just gonna sit there and eat.
via Canberra is fighting the last war – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
The ASX 200 rallied off support at 4000, headed for a test of medium-term resistance at 4150 — and the descending trendline. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow remains below zero and respect of the zero line would warn of strong medium-term selling pressure. In the longer term, breach of primary support at 3850 would signal a primary decline to 3350*.
* Target calculation: 3850 – ( 4350 – 3850 ) = 3350
DAVID MURRAY: The lending system for housing has resulted in a house price which is higher than it should be and part of the net foreign liabilities that are higher than they should be.
I believe that will be worked through by a stabilisation of house prices and steady increase in incomes and hopefully that’s the outcome but based on a price to income test, house prices in Australia are higher than they should be.
The regulations in the banking sector significantly promoted that outcome because the risk weight on housing is very low, so the gearing for housing is high. Historically the write-off rate’s been low. People believe that will last forever, which is always a worry. And this is purely with the benefit of hindsight, particularly on my part.
Commodities are weakening and dragging the Aussie and Loonie lower. The Aussie dollar shows a similar iceberg pattern on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, warning of a primary down-trend. Breakout below primary support at $0.94 would offer a long-term target of $0.80*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80
Canada’s Loonie is also headed for a test of $0.94 against the greenback. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support (0.94) would offer a target of $0.87*.
* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87
The SMH has [a] very important story this morning on the funding crisis that is bearing down on the major banks:
Australian banks are preparing for a potential freeze in global funding markets as Europe’s worsening stresses threaten to send the world’s financial markets into a tailspin. Renewed funding pressures for the big banks, which need to raise $16.3 billion over the next two months, are likely to make it tougher for business and some consumers to access credit.
via The credit crunch is coming – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
HSBC issued the preliminary “flash” version of its monthly manufacturing purchasing managers index survey – a closely watched non-government view on how China’s economy is faring. The survey fell to a contractionary reading of 48 for November, compared to a mildly expansionary reading of 51 last month. A reading of 50 separates expansion from contraction.
via Australian sharemarket extends losses after weak China survey | The Australian.
European banks in recent years dramatically boosted lending to emerging markets and were among the biggest cross-border lenders in these countries. Their retreat has tightened credit in industries—from aircraft to media to mining — squeezing economies already feeling the effects of reduced demand from the developed world for their exports….”We’re in a very vulnerable position that’s definitely impacting global growth,” Gail Kelly, chief executive of Australia’s Westpac Bank said at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council last week. “It’s certainly impacting in my country and in Asia.”
The ASX 200 index is testing medium-term support at 4150. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of support would test the primary level at 3850.
* Target calculation: 3900 – ( 4300 − 3900 ) = 3500
A weekly chart of the All Ords shows a primary down-trend. Failure of support at 4200 would test 3900. Completion of a peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would suggest another decline.
* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 − 4000 ) = 3500
[Economist Stephen King] is generally quick to remind us that regulation creates markets. Without property law and contract law, markets, as we know them, won’t be able function at all. The framework in which to understand regulation is that good regulation creates functional markets and balances benefits between market players and society at large. Bad regulation creates dysfunctional markets, or none at all, and can impede production by market agents by creating new risks, and costly hurdles.
via Praise for good regulation – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.
