Eurosis and US window-dressing

Neurosis: Emotional disorder arising from no apparent organic lesion or change and involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety, depression, and irrational fears…… No longer in scientific use.

Eurosis: Economic disorder involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety and depression, arising from rational fears of a collapse of the European monetary and banking system……. No longer of much use.

Europe

Dow Jones Europe index encountered (medium-term) resistance at 240. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Expect a test of primary support at 210. Failure of support would indicate a fall to 160*.

DJ Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – (260 – 210 ) = 160

US

The S&P 500 index is stronger, testing resistance at 1300. Breakout would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. We are likely to see significant window-dressing ahead of the November 2012 election. The market may well respond, but the real picture is bleaker with an economy reliant on deficit-spending in order to avoid a slide back into recession. Respect of resistance at 1300 would warn of another test of primary support at 1160.

S&P 500 Index


Australia

ASX 200 index reflects the middle ground. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure but the index is presently testing primary support at 4000. Failure would signal a fall to 3650*. News of a fresh stimulus program in China, however, should help support resources stocks.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – (4350 – 4000 ) = 3650

The significance of tax components within your SMSF – Warrick Hanley

Have you ever taken note of the tax components within your SMSF? Behind the balance of your member account are two main components that make up your superannuation savings – these are the Taxable Component and the Exempt (or Tax Free) Component.

The Taxable bucket consists of contributions made to superannuation where a tax deduction has been claimed (i.e. SGC, salary sacrifice, personal deductible contributions) and the Exempt bucket is made up of after-tax contributions. Contributions where a tax deduction has been claimed are officially referred to as Concessional Contributions and after-tax contributions referred to as Non-Concessional Contributions.

Whilst your member balance is in accumulation phase (i.e. where you are not drawing an income) all positive and negative investment earnings will effectively be allocated to or from the Taxable Component. Then, once you eventually commence an income stream, the proportion of your components will freeze and the income stream will forever maintain the same proportion to each component.

For example, if you had an accumulation balance of $440,000 in year 1 made up of a $375,000 Exempt Component (85% of balance) and a $65,000 Taxable Component (15% of balance) and during that year earnings allocated to your balance amounted to $60,000, then your new account balance would be $500,000 and the $60,000 would be added to your Taxable Component – $125,000 (25% of balance). The Exempt Component would remain at $375,000 (75% of balance).

Let’s say at the beginning of year 2, you retire and decide to commence an income stream with your total balance. When you commence an income stream, the proportions of your income stream balance will remain as they were when it started (25%/75%) and all earnings will also be allocated proportionately. Furthermore, any withdrawals will need to be made proportionately. The effect of this is that your income stream account will always remain 25% Taxable/75% Exempt.

The significance of tax components is that it determines how tax will be paid on any withdrawals made from your account. For instance, if you are between the ages of 55 and 60 and in receipt of a superannuation income stream (using the same 25%/75% split above), 25% of the pension payment will be taxed at your marginal tax rate and 75% will not be assessed for tax at all. A 15% rebate will also be applied to reduce the tax on the Taxable portion. Under current legislation, all income received by those over age 60 is not assessed, so tax components are irrelevant in this instance – however legislation has been known to change.

The tax components are also important when you pass away. If you were to pass away, irrespective of age, and your member balance is paid as a lump sum to a ‘tax dependant’ (including spouse, child under 18, someone financially dependant – to name a few) your balance will be paid out completely tax free regardless of tax components. However, where your member balance is paid as a lump sum to a ‘non-tax dependant’, such as a child over 18, only the Exempt Component will be received by them tax free, with the remainder being taxed at 15%. So, based on our $500,000 account balance above, $18,750 in tax would be paid if you were to pass away and leave your balance to a ‘non-tax dependant’.

This highlights the benefits of having more of your account balance made up of the Exempt Component. If you are over 60 you may have the ability to withdraw some or all of your account balance without paying tax and then re-contribute it as a Non-Concessional contribution – thereby converting your total balance to Exempt component or at least watering down the Taxable Component.

However, if this strategy would cause you to breach contribution caps, or if you are between age 55 and 60 and would incur tax from employing such a strategy, then there may be another way to eliminate your taxable component, provided you have the ability to commence an income stream.

Let’s go back to year 1, where your account balance was $440,000 and instead of earning $60,000, lets say your balance declined by $65,000. Remember, we are in accumulation phase; so all earnings are effectively added to or subtracted from the taxable component. Based on our initial 85%/15% split – our new balance would be $375,000 and would be made up 100% of the Exempt component. Knowing that you have the ability to recoup these losses over the next few years, it may be an idea to commence an income stream now, which will forever be 100% Exempt as all earnings to the account are allocated proportionately. Sure, you now need to draw a minimum income stream, but being made up purely of the Exempt component would mean no income tax. If you don’t need the income, why not just contribute it back into super? Better yet, salary sacrifice the equivalent of this income stream from your wage.

Warrick Hanley

Chairman and Founder, SMSF Education

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The information above is general information only and is not intended to be taken as personal advice. It is important that you consider your personal circumstances and seek professional advice from your financial planner and accountant prior to implementing any such strategies, as incorrect implementation may lead to excess taxes, penalties or losses.

Asia-Pacific: ASX 200 and DJ South Korea tank

Australia’s ASX 200 index fell sharply Monday. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of medium-term support at 4000 is likely, while breach of the primary level at 3850 would signal a decline to 3350*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3850 – (4350 – 3850 ) = 3350

South Korea shows a similar pattern, with the Dow Jones index testing medium-term support at 380 following bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Breach of primary support at 350 would signal a primary decline to 280*.

DJ South Korea Index

* Target calculation: 350 – ( 420 – 350 ) = 280

Forex update: Euro breaks support

The euro broke through primary support at $1.32, warning of another primary decline with a target of $1.22*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong primary down-trend.
Euro

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

Pound Sterling is testing primary support at $1.54, while 63-day Twiggs Momentum is below zero. Failure of support would signal a primary decline to $1.46.

Pound Sterling

* Target calculation: 1.54 – ( 1.62 – 1.54 ) = 1.46

The Aussie Dollar retreated below parity, indicating another test of medium term support at $0.97. Failure would test primary support at $0.94/$0.95. Respect of the zero line by 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a continuing primary down-trend. Weakening commodity prices, especially coal and iron ore, should strengthen the down-trend.

Australian Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.97 – ( 1.03 – 0.97 ) = 0.91

The Canadian Loonie is headed for a test of primary support at $0.94/$0.95. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero suggests a continuing primary down-trend.

Canadian Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.00 – 0.95 ) = 0.90

A monthly chart of the Greenback against the Yen shows strong bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, suggesting reversal of the primary down-trend. Breakout above ¥80 and the descending trendline would confirm the signal.

Japanese Yen

The US Dollar continues in a strong up-trend against both the South African Rand and Brazilian Real, helped by falling commodity prices. Breakout above R8.60 would signal a further advance to R9.20.

South African Rand and Brazilian Real

* Target calculation: 8.60 + ( 8.60 – 8.00 ) = 9.20

Westpac bulletin: Consumer sentiment falls

Westpac Melbourne Institute Index of Consumer Sentiment fell by 8.3% in December…….

Risk aversion increased markedly in this survey. When asked about “the wisest place for savings” 26.6% of respondents nominated “pay down debt”. That was an increase from 18.7% in September. Since we started measuring that component in 1997 there has only been one higher measure, in March 2010. Only 6.6% of respondents nominated equities – the lowest percentage since 1993; while the 14% nominating real estate was, apart from 2008, the lowest since the survey began in 1974.

Comment: ~ Equities at their lowest level since 1993 is a great contrarian indicator. There is still risk of further downside, so too early to invest at present, but this will be a good number to watch in 2012.

Australia: The safe haven – macrobusiness.com.au

Yields on the 10-year Commonwealth bond hit a record intraday low of 3.78 percentage points yesterday…….CPI inflation for the September quarter was still running at 3.5%. That means investors are close to giving the Australian government money for free.

On top of that….. Investors seem happy to park their money with the Australian government despite the large risk that the dollar will take a serious tumble (though of course they are themselves mitigating that risk somewhat through their own purchases). If investors are separately hedging, which, frankly, they’re mad if they’re not, that will add further cost to the transaction, enough surely, to push the return negative.

via Australia: The safe haven – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.

ASX 200 tests resistance

The ASX 200 rallied on news of EU progress and is headed for resistance at 4350. Breakout would offer a target of 4850* but weakness in China makes this unlikely.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4350 + ( 4350 – 3850 ) = 4850

On the long-term (quarterly) chart it is clear that we are still in bear territory. Only breakout above 5000 would reverse the trend.

ASX 200 Index Quarterly

Forex update

The euro is likely to re-test primary support at $1.32 against the greenback. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, warns of continuation of the primary down-trend. Breach of support would indicate a primary decline to $1.22*.

EURUSD

* Target calculation: 1.32 – ( 1.42 – 1.32 ) = 1.22

Sterling rallied off primary support at $1.53/$1.54 against the greenback but 63-day Twiggs Momentum again warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of $1.46*.

GBPUSD

* Target calculation: 1.53 – ( 1.60 – 1.53 ) = 1.46

Canada’s Loonie is headed for another test of resistance at $1.01 against the greenback. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, continues to warn of a primary down-trend. Respect of resistance is likely, and would signal another test of primary support at $0.95. Declining commodity prices also favor a down-trend.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.01 – 0.95 ) = 0.89

The Aussie Dollar appears stronger than the Loonie, which is unusual. Both are affected by commodity prices, but the Aussie tends to be more volatile  than its Canadian counterpart. Obviously, higher interest rates in the Southern hemisphere are an attraction. Again, 63-day Twiggs Momentum warns of a primary down-trend. And reversal below parity would warn of another test of primary support at $0.95.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.07 – 0.95 ) = 0.83

The greenback has strengthened sharply against the South African Rand and Brazilian Real. Both volatile, resource-rich currencies are likely to re-test their recent highs: the rand at R8.50 and the real at 1.90 against the dollar.

USDZAR

The greenback shows strong bullish divergence against Japan’s yen on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, warning of a reversal. Breach of the long-term descending trendline would strengthen the signal. Breakout above ¥80 would confirm.

USDJPY

 

Heard on the Street: Australia’s Juggling Act – WSJ.com

Economists expect 2012 will see a slowdown in the economy of China, Australia’s biggest trading partner. China’s gross domestic product growth could slip to around 8% from more than 9% this year, which will lead to lower demand for commodities. Already, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s index of commodity prices—a weighted basket of Australia’s resource sector exports—has fallen sharply this year. The central bank says the economy’s resources-led surplus may have hit its peak and could decline “somewhat” from here.

via Heard on the Street: Australia’s Juggling Act – WSJ.com.

The RBA gets hawkish on asset prices – macrobusiness.com.au

I believe that the RBA is determined to prevent any reinvigoration of the Australian housing bubble……. yesterday we had [] confirmation that the bank is structurally remodelling itself as an asset price hawk, with the appointment of Phil Lowe to the deputy governorship. In 2002, whilst working at the BIS [he] wrote a defining paper on the identification and targeting of asset prices….his history shows both the intelligence and fearlessness needed to be an effective senior governor. Bravo.

via The RBA gets hawkish on asset prices – macrobusiness.com.au | macrobusiness.com.au.