Seasonally adjusted retail sales grew by 0.5% in volume terms in the September quarter.
The headline number, however, disguises the underlying stress consumers are experiencing. Per capita retail sales are falling steeply.
The RBA is unlikely to act on this, however. Instead, it will focus on headline numbers like dwelling approvals, which have broken their recent downtrend.
Conclusion
A November rate cut remains unlikely.
Acknowledgments
- ABS: Retail Sales
- ABS: Building Approvals
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.