A quick health check from the RBA chart pack:
Our trade balance is in robust good health.
Boosted by record high iron ore prices. Sadly, this is nearing an end.
On the domestic front, we have a decent chance of a bronze medal placing for the biggest housing bubble. But Canada, UK and NZ are vying for gold.
While on the business front, we are competing for the wooden spoon, with the lowest investment rate since the early ’90s.
Conclusion
Economic policy is completely cock-eyed. We are driving up prices in an already over-heated housing market — in an attempt to generate short-term jobs — a ponzi scheme that puts the entire financial system at risk. And starving the one sector that has the potential to generate jobs and grow GDP, ensuring long-term stability.
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.