CPI shock upsets markets

The consumer price index (CPI) dipped to 8.25% (seasonally adjusted) for the 12 months to August but disappointed stock and bond markets who were anticipating a sharp fall.

CPI

The S&P 500 fell 4.3% to test support at 3900. Follow-through below 3650 would confirm earlier bear market signals.

S&P 500

Services CPI — which has minimal exposure to producer prices and supply chains — climbed to 6.08%. Rising services costs indicate that inflation is growing embedded in the economy.

CPI Services

Fueled by strong growth in average hourly earnings.

CPI & Wage Rates

But it is not only services that present a problem.

Food prices are growing above 10% p.a. — signaling hardship for low income-earners.

CPI Food

The heavily-weighted shelter component — almost one-third of total CPI — climbed to 6.25%. We expect further increases as CPI shelter lags actual home prices — represented by the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index (pink) on the chart below — by 6 to 12 months.

CPI Shelter

CPI energy is still high, at 23.91% for the 12 months to August, but the index has fallen steeply over the past two months (July-August).

CPI Energy

The decline is likely to continue until the mid-term elections in November, as the US government releases crude from its strategic reserves (SPR) in order to suppress fuel prices.

SPR Levels

The reduction in strategic reserves is unsustainable in the longer-term and reversal could deliver a nasty surprise for consumers in the new year.

SPR Lowest since 1984

Conclusion

Strong CPI growth for the 12-months to August warns that inflation will be difficult to contain. Services CPI at 6.08% also confirms that inflation is growing embedded in the economy.

Energy costs are falling but this may be unsustainable. Releases from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) are likely to end after the mid-term elections in November.

The Fed is way behind the curve, with the real Fed funds rate (FFR-CPI) at -5.92%, below the previous record low of -4.97% from 1975.

Real Fed Funds Rate (FFR-CPI)

We expect interest rates to rise “higher for longer.” A 75 basis-point hike is almost certain at next weeks’ FOMC meeting (September 20-21).

Long-term Treasury yields are rising, with the 10-year at 3.42%. Breakout above resistance at 3.50% is likely, signaling the end of a four decade-long secular bull trend in bonds.

10-Year Treasury Yields

Stocks and bonds are both falling, with the S&P 500 down 18.0% year-to-date compared to -25.4% for TLT.

S&P 500 and iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (TLT)

The best short-term haven is cash.

CPI dips but rate hikes likely to continue

CPI dipped to 8.5% for the 12 months to July. But this still leaves the Fed way behind the curve, with a real Fed funds rate of -6.0% (8.5%-2.5%).

CPI

Monthly CPI figures, however, show a sharp slowdown, with CPI falling 0.01% in July (-0.14% annualized rate).

CPI Monthly

The primary cause is energy prices, which fell 4.53% in July (-54.7% annualized rate).

CPI Energy (Monthly Annualized)

Food CPI continues to climb, up 1.06%for July (12.75% annualized rate).

CPI: Food

CPI Shelter, heavily weighted at 32.1% of the total CPI basket, remains a major source of upward pressure on CPI. The Shelter index tends to lag home prices by up to 12 months and the Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index grew at 20.8% for the 12 months to May.

CPI: Shelter

The Rents component of CPI shelter shows a similar lag, a long way behind the Zillow rent index which is up 14.8% over the 12 months to June.

CPI: Rent

Wages & consumer expectations

Consumer expectations for inflation were unchanged, at 5.3% in June.

University of Michigan: Inflation Expectations

While average hourly wage rates moderated slightly, growing 6.2% in the 12 months to July.

Average Hourly Earnings

Upward pressure on wages is likely to continue for as long as job openings exceed unemployment, with a current shortfall of 5 million workers.

Job Openings & Unemployment (U3)

The Fed

The real Fed funds rate (FFR adjusted for CPI) rose to a weak -6.0% after the latest rate hike, still lower than any previous trough in the past sixty years. Real FFR (red below) should be positive when unemployment (blue) is below 5%. Past lows, circled on the chart below, were in response to high unemployment — when the economy had spare capacity. We now have the opposite, with a tight labor market, and negative real rates are likely to give rise to high inflation.

Unemployment (U3) & Fed Funds Rate - CPI

Conclusion

Some are calling this “peak inflation” but the decline in CPI growth is due to a large monthly drop in energy prices. Food and shelter costs are still rising.

The energy crisis is not over, with Winter approaching in Europe while gas storage levels are at record lows and Russia is restricting pipeline flows in an attempt to create division within the European Union. Energy prices are likely to remain volatile.

The Fed is way behind the curve, with a real Fed funds rate of -6.0%. We expect them to continue hiking interest rates despite the recent fall in energy prices.

According to Larry Summers and Olivier Blanchard, the Fed will only be able to bring inflation down when unemployment is well above 5%. The danger is if the Fed is forced to halt rate hikes before it has tamed underlying inflation. We are then likely to end up with both low growth and high inflation.

Our strategy remains defensive: overweight Gold, critical materials, defensive stocks which enjoy strong pricing power, and cash.

Acknowledgements