Eurosis and US window-dressing

Neurosis: Emotional disorder arising from no apparent organic lesion or change and involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety, depression, and irrational fears…… No longer in scientific use.

Eurosis: Economic disorder involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety and depression, arising from rational fears of a collapse of the European monetary and banking system……. No longer of much use.

Europe

Dow Jones Europe index encountered (medium-term) resistance at 240. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Expect a test of primary support at 210. Failure of support would indicate a fall to 160*.

DJ Europe Index

* Target calculation: 210 – (260 – 210 ) = 160

US

The S&P 500 index is stronger, testing resistance at 1300. Breakout would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. We are likely to see significant window-dressing ahead of the November 2012 election. The market may well respond, but the real picture is bleaker with an economy reliant on deficit-spending in order to avoid a slide back into recession. Respect of resistance at 1300 would warn of another test of primary support at 1160.

S&P 500 Index


Australia

ASX 200 index reflects the middle ground. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure but the index is presently testing primary support at 4000. Failure would signal a fall to 3650*. News of a fresh stimulus program in China, however, should help support resources stocks.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4000 – (4350 – 4000 ) = 3650

Asia-Pacific: ASX 200 and DJ South Korea tank

Australia’s ASX 200 index fell sharply Monday. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of medium-term support at 4000 is likely, while breach of the primary level at 3850 would signal a decline to 3350*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3850 – (4350 – 3850 ) = 3350

South Korea shows a similar pattern, with the Dow Jones index testing medium-term support at 380 following bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Breach of primary support at 350 would signal a primary decline to 280*.

DJ South Korea Index

* Target calculation: 350 – ( 420 – 350 ) = 280

ASX 200 tests resistance

The ASX 200 rallied on news of EU progress and is headed for resistance at 4350. Breakout would offer a target of 4850* but weakness in China makes this unlikely.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4350 + ( 4350 – 3850 ) = 4850

On the long-term (quarterly) chart it is clear that we are still in bear territory. Only breakout above 5000 would reverse the trend.

ASX 200 Index Quarterly

ASX buying pressure

The ASX 200 index is once again testing resistance at 4350. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 4700*. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would suggest another test of primary support at 3850.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4350 + (4350 – 4000 ) = 4700

The All Ordinaries is similarly testing resistance at 4400, while rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Breakout would offer a target of 4800*.

All Ordinaries Index

* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800

ASX 200 threatens support

The ASX 200 index is testing medium-term support at 4150. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure. Failure of support would test the primary level at 3850.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3900 – ( 4300 − 3900 ) = 3500

A weekly chart of the All Ords shows a primary down-trend. Failure of support at 4200 would test 3900. Completion of a peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would suggest another decline.

All Ordinaries Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 4000 – ( 4500 − 4000 ) = 3500

ASX 200 runs into resistance

The ASX 200 encountered selling pressure at 4350, as indicated by the tall shadow (or “wick”) on Monday’s candle. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow also indicates medium-term selling pressure. Failure of support at 4150 would signal another test of primary support at 3850. Upward breakout is less likely but would offer a target of 4850*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4350 + ( 4350 – 3850 ) = 4850

Australia retraces to find support

The ASX 200 broke out above its descending trendline — warning that the down-trend was ending — but ran into selling pressure. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow confirms the tall shadow on Friday’s candle. Respect of support at 4100 would suggest a primary up-trend, while failure would re-test primary support at 3850.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 4300 + ( 4300 – 3900 ) = 4700

Support levels are clearer on the weekly chart.

ASX 200 Index Weekly

ASX 200 fails to respond to Dow surge

Dow Jones Industrial Average broke its declining trendline Monday, surging strongly, but light volume indicates hesitancy on the part of buyers.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 11000 – ( 12000 – 11000 ) = 10000

Asian stocks reacted with enthusiasm but Shanghai, after gapping up at the open, fell sharply, giving up most of its gains. The ASX 200 response was muted, with a narrow range and low volume indicating hesitancy from buyers. Reversal below Monday’s low of 4150 would signal another test of 3850. Failure of support would offer a target of 3600*.

ASX 200 Index

* Target calculation: 3900 – ( 4200 – 3900 ) = 3600