The ASX 200 index respected its rising trendline on the weekly chart, indicating continuation of the advance to test 4400. Breakout above 4400 would indicate the start of a primary up-trend, while recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800
Bullish divergence on the daily chart shows medium-term buying pressure signaled by 21-day Twiggs Money Flow. Breakout above 4300 would indicate a test of 4400.
The ASX 200 broke through support at 4220 on the hourly chart, signaling a correction to test primary support at 4040. Retracement to test the new resistance level is weak and follow-through below intra-day support at 4180 would confirm the signal.
The ASX 200 index has been hesitant since the breach of its descending trendline. A bottom may be forming, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow reversal below zero warns us not to expect much upside any time soon. Respect of the rising (green) trendline would indicate another test of 4400, while penetration would mean another test of primary support at 4000*.
A 2-hour chart shows the index headed for another test of resistance at 4310 on Monday. But momentum is falling and respect of 4310 would suggest a correction to 4000.
The ASX 200 breched its descending trendline, indicating that the primary down-trend is over. Breakout above 4400 would signal the start of a new up-trend. Twiggs Money Flow (13 week) continues to oscillate around the zero line, however, suggesting weakness.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800
The ASX 200 is headed for a test of resistance at 4400. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 4400 would complete a higher trough, signaling the start of a primary up-trend, but selling pressure in US and Chinese markets may prevent this.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800
Australia’s ASX 200 index is lagging other resources markets, but penetration of the descending trendline on Monday suggests that a bottom is forming. Breakout above 4400 would signal a primary up-trend, with an initial target of 4800*.
* Target calculation: 4400 + ( 4400 – 4000 ) = 4800
Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for a test of 9100, but still has some way to go. Cross-over of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would be a bullish sign.
Dow Jones South Korea Index is testing resistance at 420. Respect of the zero line by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Breakout above 420 would complete a higher trough, signaling a primary up-trend. Target for the initial advance would be 460*.
* Target calculation: 420 + ( 420 – 380 ) = 460
Australia’s ASX 200 index continues to range between 3850 and 4350. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects medium-term selling pressure, but the long-term rise reflects buying support. Failure of support at 4000 would suggest another test of 3850, but only breakout from the range will offer a clear long-term signal.
China’s Shanghai Composite index respected resistance at 2300, suggesting a decline to 2000*. Deep negative values on 63-day Twiggs Momentum are evidence of a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2300 – 2150 ) = 2000
India’s Nifty Index is headed for a test of the upper border of its downward trend channel at 5200. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding below zero continues to indicate a strong primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 5600 + ( 6600 – 5600 ) = 5100
Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index fell sharply Monday to test short-term support at 8360. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure. Breakout below 8200 would warn of another primary decline, with a target of 7400*.
* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9000 – 8200 ) = 7400
Neurosis: Emotional disorder arising from no apparent organic lesion or change and involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety, depression, and irrational fears…… No longer in scientific use.
Eurosis: Economic disorder involving symptoms such as insecurity, anxiety and depression, arising from rational fears of a collapse of the European monetary and banking system……. No longer of much use.
Europe
Dow Jones Europe index encountered (medium-term) resistance at 240. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow below zero warns of selling pressure. Expect a test of primary support at 210. Failure of support would indicate a fall to 160*.
* Target calculation: 210 – (260 – 210 ) = 160
US
The S&P 500 index is stronger, testing resistance at 1300. Breakout would signal resumption of the primary up-trend. We are likely to see significant window-dressing ahead of the November 2012 election. The market may well respond, but the real picture is bleaker with an economy reliant on deficit-spending in order to avoid a slide back into recession. Respect of resistance at 1300 would warn of another test of primary support at 1160.
Australia
ASX 200 index reflects the middle ground. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure but the index is presently testing primary support at 4000. Failure would signal a fall to 3650*. News of a fresh stimulus program in China, however, should help support resources stocks.
* Target calculation: 4000 – (4350 – 4000 ) = 3650
Australia’s ASX 200 index fell sharply Monday. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of strong selling pressure. Failure of medium-term support at 4000 is likely, while breach of the primary level at 3850 would signal a decline to 3350*.
* Target calculation: 3850 – (4350 – 3850 ) = 3350
South Korea shows a similar pattern, with the Dow Jones index testing medium-term support at 380 following bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Breach of primary support at 350 would signal a primary decline to 280*.
* Target calculation: 350 – ( 420 – 350 ) = 280
The ASX 200 rallied on news of EU progress and is headed for resistance at 4350. Breakout would offer a target of 4850* but weakness in China makes this unlikely.
* Target calculation: 4350 + ( 4350 – 3850 ) = 4850
On the long-term (quarterly) chart it is clear that we are still in bear territory. Only breakout above 5000 would reverse the trend.
