US & Canada Archives - Page 91 of 185

June 20, 2014

A good week for the S&P 500 but not the ASX

Summary:

Good week for US markets.
China continues to threaten further down-side.
The ASX 200, pulled in opposite directions, is range bound for the present.
Momentum strategies require persistence.

The S&P 500 broke through 1950 and is expected to test the next resistance level at 2000*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow signals medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1925 is unlikely at present but would warn of a correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1900 + ( 1900 – 1800 ) = 2000

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues its downward path, indicating low risk typical of a bull market.

S&P 500 VIX

The Shanghai Composite Index rebounded Friday after a tough week and continues to test primary support at 1990/2000. Breach of support would signal a decline to 1850*. 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow oscillating above zero indicates buying support; a fall below zero would suggest selling pressure. The primary trend is expected to continue its downward path, but this is a managed descent and an abrupt fall seems unlikely.

Shanghai Composite

* Target calculation: 2000 – ( 2150 – 2000 ) = 1850

After a strong surge on Thursday the ASX 200 retreated below 5450 on Friday, suggesting another test of support at 5400. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support is likely and would indicate a correction to 5300. Recovery above 5500 is unlikely at present, but the long-term trend remains upward.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 5000 ) = 5800

Resist the urge to avoid discomfort

Momentum stocks have suffered a fair degree of turbulence since April, after a strong first quarter. Investors unfortunately have to endure periods like this, when the market appears hesitant or lacks direction, in much the same the same way as travelers can expect turbulence during an air flight. It is important is to resist the urge to avoid discomfort by exiting positions. Enduring uncomfortable parts of the journey are necessary if you want to reach your intended destination. Our research on both the ASX and S&P 500 has shown that attempting to time secondary movements in the markets does not enhance but erodes performance: the average (re-)entry price is higher than the average exit price after accounting for brokerage.

A basic rule of thumb in investing is that investors need to endure higher volatility in order to achieve higher returns. If your investment time frame is long-term, it is important to focus on the end result and not be overly concerned by weekly fluctuations.

June 18, 2014

Robert Shiller: CAPE should not be used for market timing

From an interview with Robert Shiller in January 2013:

Blodget: ….one frustration a lot of people have with the cyclically adjusted P/E and others is that it’s not particularly helpful for the timing mechanism, do you think it’s good to use as a sort of projected 10-year return, where when P/Es are high the return tends to be low, and vice versa?

Shiller: John Campbell, who’s now a professor at Harvard, and I presented our findings first to the Federal Reserve Board in 1996, and we had a regression, showing how the P/E ratio predicts returns. And we had scatter diagrams, showing 10-year subsequent returns against the CAPE, what we call the cyclically adjusted price earnings ratio. And that had a pretty good fit. So I think the bottom line that we were giving – and maybe we didn’t stress or emphasize it enough – was that it’s continual. It’s not a timing mechanism, it doesn’t tell you — and I had the same mistake in my mind, to some extent — Wait until it goes all the way down to a P/E of 7, or something.

Blodget: Right, perfectly safe, so then you can buy.

Shiller: But actually, the lesson there is that if you combine that with a good market diversification algorithm, the important thing is that you never get completely in or completely out of stocks. The lower CAPE is, as it gradually gets lower, you gradually move more and more in. So taking that lesson now, CAPE is high, but it’s not super high. I think it looks like stocks should be a substantial part of a portfolio.

June 16, 2014

Canada: TSX 60 Ichimoku trend

Canada’s TSX 60 again shows a strong trend, trading high above a strong green cloud, with no recent crosses of blue (Tenkan) below the red (Kijun) line. Expect a test of the 2008 high at 900. Reversal below support at 830 is unlikely.

TSX 60

June 16, 2014April 18, 2024

S&P 500: Strong Ichimoku trend

Today we take a look at long-term trend strength in North American markets using a great trend tool, Ichimoku Cloud, with weekly charts. Ichimoku is only available on the latest beta version of Incredible Charts (Help >> Upgrade To Latest Beta Version), but will soon be released with Incredible Charts 7.0.

Ichimoku offers a number of trend signals:

The trend is upward when price is above the Cloud (and downward when price is below).
A green cloud indicates an up-trend, while a red cloud indicates a down-trend.
Long trades are taken when the blue line crosses above the red. In strong trends, blue may hold above red for extended periods.

The S&P 500 encountered resistance and is consolidating below its target of 1950*. The trend above a green cloud is further strengthened by the blue (Tenkan) holding above the red (Kijun) for an extended period. Continuation of the up-trend is likely and breakout above 1950 would signal an advance to 2000.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

Dow Jones Industrial Average displays a similar strong trend with few blue (Tenkan) dips below the red (Kijun) line. Breakout above resistance at 17000 would signal an advance to 17500*. Reversal below 16500 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 16500 + ( 16500 – 15500 ) = 17500

The Nasdaq 100 recovery of blue (Tenkan) above the red (Kijun) line offers a fresh entry signal. Resistance at 3800 is unlikely to hold and follow-through would confirm the target of 4000* for the advance. Reversal below 3700 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3700 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 4000

Another indication of trend strength is the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), currently trading at levels last seen in 2005/2006, which indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

June 10, 2014

Canada: TSX 60 targets 900

A monthly chart shows Canada’s TSX 60 headed for its 2008 high of 900 after breaking resistance at 820. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow appears secondary, in line with the medium-term consolidation, but a further decline would warn of a correction. Reversal below support at 830 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would indicate that the primary trend is slowing.

TSX 60

June 10, 2014

S&P 500 advancing towards 2000

The S&P 500 has reached its initial target of 1950*. Steeply rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Retracement to test support at 1925 is expected. Respect of 1920 would suggest a strong up-trend and an advance to 2000.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 12 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 broke resistance at 3700/3750, signaling an advance to 4000*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow again indicates strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 3700 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3700 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 4000

June 9, 2014

Creating a Learning Society | Joseph Stiglitz | Project Syndicate

By Joseph Stiglitz:

The Nobel laureate economist Robert Solow noted some 60 years ago that rising incomes should largely be attributed not to capital accumulation, but to technological progress – to learning how to do things better. While some of the productivity increase reflects the impact of dramatic discoveries, much of it has been due to small, incremental changes. And, if that is the case, it makes sense to focus attention on how societies learn, and what can be done to promote learning – including learning how to learn.

Stiglitz also includes an observation particularly relevant to Australia, with its shrinking manufacturing sector.

The great economist Kenneth Arrow emphasized the importance of learning by doing. The only way to learn what is required for industrial growth, for example, is to have industry. And that may require ….ensuring that one’s exchange rate is competitive….

June 3, 2014

TSX bullish consolidation

Canada’s TSX 60 is consolidating in a narrow range on the weekly chart. Upward breakout is likely and would signal contuation of the advance to the 2008 high of 900. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow appears secondary, in line with the medium-term consolidation, but a further decline would warn of a correction. Reversal below support at 830 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would indicate that the primary trend is slowing.

TSX 60

June 3, 2014

S&P 500 bullish, Nasdaq tests resistance

After early skittishness over some dud Institute for Supply Management (ISM) data, the S&P 500 recovered lost ground by the close. Expect an advance to 1950*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero indicate strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1900 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1850 + ( 1850 – 1750 ) = 1950

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 12 indicates low risk typical of a bull market.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 is testing resistance at 3740/3750. Breakout would signal an advance to 4000*. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow troughs above zero again indicate strong medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 3700, however, would warn of another correction.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3700 + ( 3700 – 3400 ) = 4000

May 29, 2014

Gold tumbles as Treasury yields fall

Overview:

Treasury yields fall
The Dollar strengthens slightly
Stocks are rising
Gold breaks support

Interest Rates and the Dollar

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes broke primary support at 2.50 percent, warning of a decline to 2.00 percent*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero confirms weakness. Recovery above 2.80 is most unlikely at present, but would indicate another advance.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 2.50 – ( 3.00 – 2.50 ) = 2.00

The Dollar Index is testing resistance at 80.50. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero would increase the chances of a double-bottom reversal (to a primary up-trend), but respect of resistance remains as likely and would test primary support at 79.00. Another 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line would signal continuation of the primary down-trend.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79.0 – ( 81.5 – 79.0 ) = 76.5

Stocks and Housing

Falling long-term interest rates are likely to boost the housing sector and the broader stock market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is heading for a test of the recent high at 16750. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow signals medium-term buying pressure. Retracement that respects support at 16500 would confirm an advance to 17000*.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 16.5 – ( 16.5 – 16 ) = 17

Gold and Silver

Gold faces conflicting forces: low inflation reduces demand for precious metals, but low interest rates and a weaker Dollar increase demand. At present low inflation seems to have the upper hand, driving gold through support at $1300/$1280 per ounce. Expect a test of primary support at $1200. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero reinforces the bear signal. Recovery above $1300 is most unlikely, but would warn of a bear trap and rally to $1400.

Spot Gold