Countries & Regions Archives - Page 194 of 383

December 3, 2013

ASX correction despite Asian bulls

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is likely to retrace to test its new support level at 15000. Respect would negate the bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow and confirm the long-term target of 17500*. Reversal below the rising trendline, however, would warn of a correction to 13000.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite is consolidating between 2100 and 2250. Upward breakout would suggest a test of the descending trendline at 2450 on the monthly chart. Momentum remains weak and reversal below 2100 is as likely, which would test primary support at 1950.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing this year’s high of 24000. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 24000 is likely and would signal a primary advance to 24500, with a long-term target of 25500*. Reversal below 23500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 22500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

India’s Sensex is headed for a test of 21200 after respecting support at 20200. Breakout above its 2007/2010 highs at 21000 would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 20200 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

The ASX 200 is undergoing a correction after breaching the rising trendline and support at 5290/5300. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure, but a trough above zero would indicate a healthy (primary) up-trend. There are plenty of support levels evident on the chart, but I would expect strongest support around 4900 and the 2009/2011 highs of 5000.

ASX 200

The ASX 200 VIX index, below 15, continues to indicate low market risk.

ASX 200

December 3, 2013

DAX leads the way

The FTSE 100 continues to test support at 6600. Upward breakout from the recent flag formation would signal an advance to the December 1999 high of 6950/7000*. Falling 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure, but a trough above zero would be a long-term bull signal. Breach of 6600 would warn of a correction to primary support and the rising trendline at 6400.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 continues its test of resistance at 3100 on the monthly chart. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 3100 would signal an advance to 3500*. Reversal below 3000 is unlikely, but would indicate a correction to the rising trendline.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500

Germany’s DAX leads the way with a strong advance to 9500*. Steeply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals strong buying pressure. Respect of the target at 9500 would suggest a correction to the rising trendline and support at 8500.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

December 3, 2013

TSX tests resistance

Canada’s TSX 60 is testing resistance at 780 on the monthly chart. Breakout would signal an advance to 800* — and possibly the 2011 high of 820. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to 740.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

December 3, 2013

Bullish outlook despite retracement

Dow Jones Industrial Average retraced to test short-term support at 16000. Breach would suggest a correction to test the rising trendline at 15500. Mild bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Target for the advance is 16600* and respect of support at 15500 would suggest another advance.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The S&P 500 is also testing short-term support, but at 1800*. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of medium-term selling pressure. Breach of support would signal a correction to the rising trendline around 1730. Respect of the trendline would indicate a healthy up-trend.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) below 15 continues to indicate low market risk.

VIX Index

Bellwether transport stock Fedex displays a huge surge on the monthly chart, with rising Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. A bullish sign for the US economy.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 100 + ( 100 – 70 ) = 130

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with higher troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Reversal below 3350 would warn of a correction. Short corrections and narrow consolidations are typical of an accelerating trend. Unsustainable in the long-term, accelerating trends almost inevitably lead to a sharp correction.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550

Overall, I am bullish on the US market. Attempting to time entries and exits from secondary movements is expensive and our strategy at Research & Investment is to remain in the market unless risks become elevated.

November 28, 2013

Aussie down-trend

The Aussie Dollar found short-term support at $0.91 against the greenback. Expect a rally to test the descending trendline and resistance at $0.93. Respect of the trendline is likely and would warn of a down-swing to primary support at $0.89. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum signals continuation of the down-trend. Breakout above $0.93 is unlikely, but would suggest that the down-trend is ending. The RBA needs a weaker Aussie Dollar, without lowering interest rates, and will do all it can to assist the decline.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.91 – ( 0.93 – 0.91 ) = 0.89

Aussie breach of support at $1.12 against its Kiwi neighbor, warns of a primary down-trend. Retracement is likely to respect the new resistance level and would confirm the down-trend. Follow-through above $1.13 is unlikely but would warn of a bear trap. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum signals continuation of the down-trend. Target for the decline is $1.08*.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.12 – ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.08

November 26, 2013

Muted ASX response to Asian bulls

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

Narrow consolidation at China’s Shanghai Composite upper trend channel suggests continuation of the rally. Follow-through above 2210 would signal a test of 2270. Reversal below 2180 is less likely, but would indicate a down-swing to the lower channel. The 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero suggests medium-term buying pressure. Breakout above 2270 would signal a primary up-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is likely to retrace to test the new support level at 23500. Respect would confirm an advance to 25500*, signaling a primary up-trend. Follow-through above 24000 would confirm. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 23500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of 22500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

India’s Sensex is again rallying after testing support at 20200. Breakout above its 2007/2010 highs at 21000 would confirm the primary advance, offering a target of 24000*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would strengthen the signal. Reversal below 20200 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the rising trendline and primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is struggling with resistance at 3250/3300. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero continues to warn of selling pressure. Breakout above 3300 is unlikely at present, but would signal a primary advance to 3600*. Reversal below 3120 would warn of another correction to primary support at 3000.

Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 3300 + ( 3300 – 3000 ) = 3600

The ASX 200 continues to encounter selling pressure, with 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero. Reversal below the rising trendline and short-term support at 5290 would signal a correction. Breakout above 5400 is less likely, but would suggest an advance to 5600*. Follow-through above 5450 would confirm.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5450 + ( 5450 – 5300 ) = 5600

Readings on the ASX 200 VIX index are more bullish, suggesting relatively low market risk.

ASX 200

November 25, 2013

FTSE flags further gains

Upward breakout from the recent flag formation on the FTSE 100 would signal an advance to the December 1999 high of 6950/7000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure, but the specter of a long-term bearish divergence remains. Expect strong resistance at 7000. Reversal below 6600 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to primary support and the rising trendline at 6400.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

Narrow consolidation on Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 above support at 3000 is also a bullish sign. Rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 3100 would confirm an advance to 3500*. Reversal below 3000 is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the rising trendline.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500

Germany’s DAX is heading towards its target of 9500*, with steeply rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signaling strong medium-term buying pressure. Breach of the latest trendline is not likely, would indicate a correction to support at 8500.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7500 ) = 9500

November 25, 2013

TSX advance

Canada’s TSX 60 respected support at 772/775, indicating an advance to 800*. Bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow reflects selling pressure during the recent consolidation. A trough above zero would indicate buying pressure, but reversal below zero would warn of a correction — as would breach of short-term support at 772.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX at historic lows signals a bullish outlook for stocks.

TSX 60 VIX

November 25, 2013

Dow leads US climb

Dow Jones Industrial Average is advancing strongly, with rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating medium-term buying pressure. Target for the advance is 16600*. Retracement to test the new support level remains likely, however, and respect would confirm the advance. Reversal below 15700 is unlikely, but would test the secondary rising trendline around 15500.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The S&P 500 is testing resistance at the target of 1800*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 1750 would warn of a correction to the secondary trendline at 1700. Short corrections are indicative of strong buying pressure.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) continues below 15, indicating low market risk.

VIX Index

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend. Rising Twiggs Money Flow, with higher troughs above the zero line, indicates strong buying pressure. Target for the advance is 3550*. Reversal below the latest trendline would warn of a correction. Short corrections and narrow consolidations reflect an accelerating trend, or blow-off. Steep gains, however, almost inevitably end with a sharp fall.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 3400 + ( 3400 – 3250 ) = 3550

November 22, 2013

Why does QE taper spook the market if it will have no real impact?

Question received from CG about the impact of QE and Fed taper:

I’m not arguing against the data presented on the graph, but if true that most of the QE bond purchases are being parked by banks in interest-bearing, excess reserve deposits at the Fed, why do the markets get spooked every time there are whispers that the Fed is going to reduce QE?

The comment CG is referring to:

Currently, there is evidence of expansive monetary policy from the Fed, but the overall impact on the financial markets is muted. Most of the QE bond purchases are being parked by banks in interest-bearing, excess reserve deposits at the Fed. The chart below compares Fed balance sheet expansion (QE) to the increase in excess reserve deposits at the Fed.

A classic placebo effect, the Fed is well aware that the major benefit of their quantitative easing program is psychological: there is little monetary impact on the markets.

My answer:
The markets have no real reason to fear a QE taper. I think this is more psychological than physical. The current mind-set is:

If the Fed begins to taper, that marks the end of the bull market in bonds. Rising bond yields and higher long-term interest rates may slow industry investment and recovery of the housing market and this would be bad for the economy.

In other words, they still have a bearish outlook. At some point they will shift to the counter-argument:

QE taper and rising interest rates indicate Fed faith in the recovery and are a bullish sign for stocks. It also means the economy is reverting to a sustainable path.

The bottom-line is that markets are driven as much by emotion as by logic.