Countries & Regions Archives - Page 193 of 383

December 21, 2013

Productivity Commission report says Australian car makers can’t compete on labour costs

An increasing amount of the world’s cars are now built in countries such as Brazil, China, India, Mexico and Thailand, while countries such as Australia, the US, the UK and Belgium have shed workers since 2008.

The [Productivity Commission] report finds labour costs in Australia “relatively high”, although not substantially different to Germany or Japan. “But [they] are four times or more those of China, Thailand and other developing countries where motor vehicle production is expanding,” it found.

December 20, 2013

What Happens When Unemployment Benefits Are Cut? North Carolina Offers a Clue | WSJ

Cutting out benefits can reduce the jobless rate in two ways, says Mr. Feroli [Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at J.P. Morgan], pointing to past economic literature. Under the employment effect, people will take jobs even if the work pays less than the job seekers want. In the participation effect, people will drop out of the measured workforce since actively seeking a job (a criterion for being labeled officially unemployed) no longer carries an advantage of receiving jobless benefits.

December 17, 2013

Aussie Dollar leads ASX lower

The falling Aussie Dollar continues to reflect local market weakness. Breach of primary support at $0.89 against the greenback would indicate a primary decline, with a long-term target of $0.81*. The recent Twiggs Momentum peak below zero also suggests a primary down-trend. Respect of support, and recovery above the descending (orange) trendline, is unlikely but would indicate another rally.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.89 – ( 0.97 – 0.89 ) = 0.81

The ASX 200 correction halted above medium-term support between 4900 and 5000, but there are no signs yet of a reversal. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow continues to warn of selling pressure. Breach of support at 4900 would warn of a test of primary support at 4650. Respect of support (4900) and Twiggs Money Flow respect of the zero line are both unlikely, but would suggest continuation of the primary up-trend.

ASX 200

Low values on the ASX 200 VIX continue to reflect low market risk.

December 17, 2013

Japan & India hesitate after breakout

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing its new support level around 15000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of long-term selling pressure. Respect of support would confirm a primary advance, with a long-term target of 17500*. But breach of the rising trendline is as likely, and would warn of a correction to the base of the formation at 12500/13000.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

India’s Sensex made a false break through resistance at 21200, warning of selling pressure. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow also indicates medium-term selling pressure. Retreat below support at 20200 would warn of a test of primary support at 18000. Recovery above 21200 is unlikely at present, but would confirm a primary advance to 24000*.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

December 17, 2013

China and Hong Kong retreat

China’s Shanghai Composite retreated from resistance at 2260 on the daily chart, breach of short-term support at 2180 signaling a correction. Reversal of 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow holding below zero would signal selling pressure, while respect of the zero line would reflect a healthy (primary) up-trend.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index retreated to 23000 on the weekly chart. Penetration of the rising trendline suggests a correction to primary support at 22500. Recovery above 23500 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to 24500*.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 22500 ) = 24500

December 16, 2013

Footsie lags behind

The FTSE 100 continues to display selling pressure, with a large bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of primary support at 6400, and breach of the rising trendline, would warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. Follow-through below 6300 would confirm. Recovery above the descending trendline is less likely, but would signal continuation of the primary up-trend.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

December 16, 2013

Euro and DAX lead recovery

European recovery is highlighted by performance of the euro. Breakout above $1.38 would confirm a primary up-trend, with an immediate target of $1.43*. 13-Week Twiggs Momentum troughs above zero indicate a healthy primary up-trend. Reversal below $1.37 is now unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at $1.33.

Euro

* Target calculation: 1.38 + ( 1.38 – 1.33 ) = 1.43

Germany’s DAX found support at 9000. Breakout above 9400 would signal an advance to 9800*. Reversal below 9000 is as likely, however, and would test medium-term support at 8500. Short retracements suggest strong buying pressure — also indicated by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow oscillating high above zero.

DAX

* Target calculation: 9400 + ( 9400 – 9000 ) = 9800

December 16, 2013

Canada: TSX 60 finds support

Canada’s TSX 60 found support at 750. Recovery above 780 would signal an advance to 810*. Another 13-week Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would confirm strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 remains unlikely, but would warn of a test of primary support at 675/680.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 780 + ( 780 – 750 ) = 810

Low TSX 60 VIX readings suggest a bull market.

TSX 60 VIX

December 16, 2013

S&P 500 correction over?

The S&P 500 found support at 1775, but declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns the correction is not yet over. Breach of 1775 would indicate a test of the ascending trendline and medium-term support at 1730. Recovery above 1810 is less likely, but would suggest an accelerating up-trend — with sharper gains and shorter retracements.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) readings below 20 are indicative of a bull market.

VIX Index

December 11, 2013

S&P 500 threatens correction

The S&P 500 is again testing support at 1780; breakout would warn of a correction. Initial support is at 1710, with primary support and the long-term trendline at 1630. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates medium-term selling pressure. Recovery above 1810 is now unlikely.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1725 + ( 1725 – 1650 ) = 1800

The ASX 200 is already undergoing a correction after breaking support at 5300. Failure of support between 4900 and 5000 would warn of a test of primary support at 4650. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates far more severe selling pressure. A fall below zero would suggest reversal to a primary down-trend, but only breach of 4650 would confirm.

ASX 200