Countries & Regions Archives - Page 192 of 378

November 3, 2013

Nasdaq accelerates while Dow and S&P500 hesitate

The Nasdaq 100 continues its accelerating up-trend — as indicated by successively steeper trendlines and a rising trendline on 13-week Twiggs Momentum. Accelerating trends, or blow-offs, are well-known for rapid gains but inevitably end with a sharp fall.

Nasdaq 100

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3400

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) remains below 15, indicating low market risk.

VIX Index

The S&P 500 is edging higher on the weekly chart, but bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of rising selling pressure. Reversal below the secondary trendline at 1700 would indicate a correction to the primary trendline and primary support at 1630.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1730 + ( 1730 – 1650 ) = 1810

Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing resistance at 15700. Breakout would offer a target of 16600*. Respect of the descending trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow, however, would confirm the earlier bearish divergence and warn of a correction to primary support at 14800. Breach of 14800 remains unlikely, but would signal a reversal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

Canada’s TSX 60 is retracing after a strong spurt. Duration of retracements reflect trend strength. Another trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would suggest strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is most unlikely, but would warn of trend weakness.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

TSX 60 VIX below 15 also reflects low market risk.

TSX 60 VIX

October 31, 2013

Forex: Euro & Aussie test support

The Euro is retracing to test the new support level at its February high of $1.37. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm a long-term advance to $1.46*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy up-trend. Reversal below the trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the primary trendline and support at $1.31.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.28 ) = 1.46

Sterling broke medium-term support at €1.175, signaling a correction to test primary support at €1.14. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the warning. Recovery above resistance at €1.19 is unlikely, but would suggest an advance to €1.24*.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.19 + ( 1.19 – 1.14 ) = 1.24

A higher trough on the Greenback against the Yen suggests buying pressure. Breakout above ¥99 would strengthen the signal, offering a target of ¥101. 21-Day Twiggs Momentum appears to have leveled out and a trough above zero would indicate a primary up-trend. Reversal below support at ¥97 is unlikely, but would test primary support at ¥96.

USD/JPY

Canada’s Loonie retreated below support at $0.96 against its US neighbor. Breach of primary support at $0.9450 would signal continuation of the primary down-trend, as would another 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero. Recovery above $0.96 is unlikely, but would warn of a trend reversal.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar retraced to test medium-term support at $0.95* against the Greenback. Recovery above $0.9550 is likely and would indicate a test of parity*. Two doji candles suggest support and follow-through below $0.9450 is unlikely, indicating a fall to $0.93.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.975 + ( 0.975 – 0.95 ) = 1.00

The Aussie encountered resistance at $1.16 against its Kiwi neighbour, suggesting a test of medium-term support at $1.14. Respect of $1.14 would be bullish and breakout above $1.16 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*. Failure of $1.14 is now unlikely, but would threaten primary support at $1.12.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.16 + ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.20

October 30, 2013

Will dollar support stem gold & silver rise?

The Dollar Index found support at the 2012 low of 79 and is likely to test resistance at 80.50. Respect would confirm the primary down-trend, with a medium-term target of 77.50*. Breakout above 80.50 is unlikely, but would indicate strong support. The falling dollar is expected to boost gold and commodity prices.

Dollar Index

* Target calculation: 79 – ( 80.5 – 79 ) = 77.5

The yield on ten-year Treasury Notes found support at 2.50 percent and is expected to rally to test the descending trendline at 2.60 percent. Respect would signal a decline to 2.40 percent. Falling yields depress the dollar while lowering the opportunity cost of holding precious metals; both increasing upward pressure on gold. Respect of primary support at 2.40, however, would warn of an advance to 3.60 percent.

10-Year Treasury Yields

* Target calculation: 3.00 + ( 3.00 – 2.40 ) = 3.60

Gold

Spot gold is testing resistance at $1350/ounce. Breakout would indicate a primary advance to $1600*, while follow-through above $1425 would confirm. Respect of resistance is less likely, but would warn of another test of primary support at $1250.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1425 + ( 1425 – 1250 ) = 1600

Silver is similarly testing resistance at $22.50/ounce. Follow-through above $23 would indicate a primary advance — confirmed if resistance at $25 is broken — while a fall below $22 would re-test primary support.

Spot Silver

Crude Oil

Nymex crude below medium-term support at $98/barrel and 13-week Twiggs Momentum crossing to below zero both warn of reversal to a primary down-trend. But recovery above resistance at $103 would negate this. Divergence of Brent crude reflects both a strengthening European recovery and continued supply threats in the Middle East.

Brent Crude and Nymex Crude

Commodity Prices

China, a primary driver of commodity prices, continues to offer mixed signals. The Shanghai Composite Index recovered above medium-term support at 2150, suggesting another test of the upper trend channel. A failed swing, or downward breakout from the trend channel, would warn of correction to test primary support at $1950; a bearish sign for commodity prices.

Shanghai Composite Index

Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index continues to test medium-term support at 126. Breach would indicate a test of the primary level at 124. Recovery above 130 still seems more likely — and would signal a primary up-trend. A 13-week Twiggs Momentum peak below zero, however, would warn of a continuing down-trend.

Dow Jones UBS Commodities Index

* Target calculation: 130 + ( 130 – 125 ) = 135

Copper prices, bellwether for the global economy, tested 2011 lows at $6800/tonne over the last few months. Prices are now rallying to test resistance — and the descending trendline — at $7500/tonne. Breakout would signal a primary up-trend, as would recovery of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero; a bullish sign for the global economy.

Copper

October 28, 2013

Shanghai weakens, ASX unaffected

China’s Shanghai Composite index broke support at 2150, signaling a correction to test primary support at 1950. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Follow-through below 2100 would confirm. Recovery above 2150 is less likely, but would suggest a bear trap.

Shanghai Composite Index

Japan’s Nikkei 225 respected resistance at 15000. Declining 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term selling pressure. Monday has so far posted gains and breakout above 15000 would signal an advance to 17500*, but reversal below the October low is as likely and would test primary support at 13200. Penetration of the rising trendline would warn of trend weakness.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

India’s Sensex respected its 2007 and 2010 highs at 21000, retracing to test support at 20500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure and breakout above 21000 would offer a long-term target of 24000*. Reversal below 20500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

The ASX 200 posted a strong blue candle on Monday, but mild bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow warns the index is nearing its target and is due for retracement to test support at 5250/5300. In the longer term, however, troughs above zero reflect a healthy primary up-trend.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5300 + ( 5300 – 5150 ) = 5450

October 28, 2013April 18, 2024

Footsie breakout while Europe hesitates

The FTSE 100 broke resistance at 6700, indicating an advance to 7000*. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure. Reversal below 6600 is unlikely, but would test primary support at 6400.

FTSE 100

* Target calculation: 6700 + ( 6700 – 6400 ) = 7000

Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 hesitated with a doji star above long-term resistance at 3000. Expect a test of the new support level, but rising 13-week Twiggs Momentum continues to suggest a healthy up-trend. Penetration of the secondary trendline would warn of a correction to the primary trendline — around 2750.

Euro Stoxx 50

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2500 ) = 3500

Spain’s Madrid General Index warns of a correction, with an evening star accompanied by strong volume. The sharp fall on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term selling pressure. Respect of the rising trendline would confirm the primary up-trend, offering a target of 1050*. Reversal below 900 is unlikely, but would indicate the up-trend is weakening.

Madrid General Index

* Target calculation: 900 + ( 900 – 750 ) = 1050

Germany’s DAX, however, is a lot more bullish. Respect of the new support level at 8500 offers a medium-term target of 9300*. Reversal below 8500 is now unlikely, but would warn of a correction to the primary trendline at 8000.

DAX

* Target calculation: 8500 + ( 8500 – 7700 ) = 9300

October 27, 2013

US & Canada: Rising buying pressure

The S&P 500 short retracement at 1750 is a bullish sign, confirming the advance to 1800*. Rising 21-Day Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Reversal below 1730 is most unlikely at present, but would warn of a test of primary support at 1650.

S&P 500

* Target calculation: 1730 + ( 1730 – 1650 ) = 1810

VIX below 15 flags low market risk.

VIX Index

Dow Jones Industrial Average is headed for a test of resistance at 15700; breakout would offer a target of 16600*. Recovery above the descending trendline on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would negate the earlier bearish divergence. Breach of 14800 is unlikely, but would warn of a reversal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

* Target calculation: 15700 + ( 15700 – 14800 ) = 16600

The Nasdaq 100, with 13-week Twiggs Money Flow troughs well above zero, indicates strong buying pressure.

Nasdaq 100

Canada’s TSX 60 is advancing toward its target of 800*, the trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicating strong buying pressure. Reversal below 740 is now most unlikely.

TSX 60

* Target calculation: 740 + ( 740 – 680 ) = 800

October 24, 2013

Forex: Euro breakout, Aussie strengthens

The Euro broke through its February high of $1.37, signaling a long-term advance to $1.46*. Troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Momentum indicate a healthy up-trend, but expect retracement to test the new support level. Reversal below support at $1.34 is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

Euro/USD

* Target calculation: 1.37 + ( 1.37 – 1.28 ) = 1.46

Sterling is testing medium-term support at €1.175. Penetration of the rising trendline warns the trend is weakening and failure of support would signal a correction to primary support at €1.14. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum below zero strengthens the warning. Recovery above resistance at €1.20 is unlikely, but would signal an advance to €1.225*.

Sterling/Euro

* Target calculation: 1.20 + ( 1.20 – 1.175 ) = 1.225

The greenback is pretty directionless against the Japanese Yen, reflecting indecision. Declining 13-week Twiggs Momentum warns of trend weakness. Breakout above ¥101 would signal another advance, while breach of support at ¥96 would indicate a reversal.

USD/JPY

Canada’s Loonie is back at parity against the Aussie Dollar. Expect some support at this level. A breach of the descending trendline would alert us to a potential rally, as would reversal of 13-week Twiggs Momentum above zero.

Canadian Loonie

The Aussie Dollar encountered resistance at its target of $0.97* against the greenback. Short retracement would indicate strong momentum, while respect of the new support level at $0.95 would suggest a healthy up-trend. Failure of support is unlikely, but would warn the up-trend is weakening.

Aussie Dollar

* Target calculation: 0.95 + ( 0.95 – 0.93 ) = 0.97

The Aussie Dollar is strengthening against its Kiwi neighbour, breaking resistance at $1.14 to signal another test of $1.16. Bullish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Momentum favors a primary up-trend. Breakout above $1.16 would complete a double-bottom reversal with a target of $1.20*. Reversal below $1.14 is now unlikely, but would warn of another decline; confirmed if primary support at $1.12 is broken.

Kiwi Dollar

* Target calculations: 1.16 + ( 1.16 – 1.12 ) = 1.20

October 23, 2013

Asian recovery bullish for ASX

India’s Sensex is testing long-term resistance at its all-time high of 21000. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 20500. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure and breakout above 21000 would offer a long-term target of 24000*. Reversal below 20500 is unlikely, but would warn of another test of primary support at 18000.

Sensex

* Target calculation: 21000 + ( 21000 – 18000 ) = 24000

Rising troughs on Japan’s Nikkei 225 weekly chart suggest buying pressure; 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above 30% would strengthen the signal. Breakout above 15000 would signal an advance to 17500*. Reversal below 14000 is unlikely, but would warn of a bull trap.

Nikkei 225

* Target calculation: 15000 + ( 15000 – 12500 ) = 17500

China’s Shanghai Composite is consolidating below resistance at 2250. Reversal below the lower channel border at 2180, however, would warn that the trend is slowing and breach of support at 2150 would signal another correction. Declining 21-day Twiggs Money Flow indicates short-term selling pressure, but oscillation above the zero line indicates buyers are dominant in the longer term.

Shanghai Composite Index

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is testing resistance at 23500 on the weekly chart. Breakout would be a strong bull signal, offering a target of 25500*. Follow-through above 24000 would confirm the advance. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow suggests medium-term buying pressure. Reversal below 22750 is unlikely, but would indicate a correction to 21500.

Hang Seng Index

* Target calculation: 23500 + ( 23500 – 21500 ) = 25500

Rising Asian markets are bullish for the ASX. The ASX 200 index followed through above 5300, confirming an advance to 5850*. Expect retracement to test the new support level at 5250/5300. Failure of support is unlikely, but would warn of another correction.

ASX 200

* Target calculation: 5250 + ( 5250 – 4650 ) = 5850

October 22, 2013

The EU should take inspiration from Switzerland in its attempts to increase democratic legitimacy | EUROPP

Joseph Lacey explains why the EU should follow the Swiss example:

Three major factors help to explain how Switzerland is possible. First, there are national elections and nationally-held referendums connected to the workings of a national government. Second, though national elections only take place every five years, referendums are far more frequent. On average, usually on three scheduled dates, Switzerland holds seven referendums annually. Some of these are constitutionally mandated, though the majority are demanded at the initiative of at least 100,000 citizen signatures. Third, unlike the case of Belgium where national consciousness is fragmented by two party systems divided along linguistic lines (French and Flemish), Switzerland has a single party system where the dominant cleavage is ideological, cutting across linguistic barriers and thereby allowing parties to draw common support from all public spheres.