Category: India & Singapore

India’s Sensex is holding above 18500, confirming the primary up-trend. Rising troughs above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicate buying pressure. Follow-through above 19000 would signal an advance to 21000*.

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is testing resistance at 3100. Narrow consolidation indicates buying pressure and breakout above 3100 would signal an advance to 3300*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum trough above zero would signal a strong primary up-trend.

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is headed for a test of support at 8650. Failure would complete a double top reversal, signaling a test of primary support at 8200. Respect of zero (from below) by 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates selling pressure. Breach of 8200 would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of 7200*.

* Target calculation: 8200 – ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 7200

South Korea’s Seoul Composite Index is consolidating below 2000 on the daily chart. Rising 21-day Twiggs Money Flow, high above zero, indicates medium-term buying pressure. Expect a test of this year’s high at 2050. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 2350*.

* Target calculation: 2050 + ( 2050 – 1750 ) = 2350

Chinese exchanges are closed the entire week for Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day. The Shanghai Composite Index is headed for a re-test of 2150. Oscillation of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow around zero indicates hesitancy. Respect of resistance is likely and would signal a decline to 1800*.

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index is closed Monday/Tuesday but will re-open Wednesday. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates strong buying pressure. Expect retracement to test 20000 but respect is likely and would signal an advance to 22000.

* Target calculation: 20 + ( 20 – 19 ) = 21

Dow Jones China index is retracing to test primary support at 245. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum, below zero, continues to indicate a primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of 200*.

* Target calculation: 250 – ( 300 – 250 ) = 200

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng penetrated the descending trendline at 22000, indicating an advance to 22000. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend. Breakout above 22000 would confirm.

India’s Sensex broke through 18500, confirming the primary up-trend. The trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates buying pressure. Expect retracement to test the new support level.

* Target calculation: 18.5 + ( 18.5 – 16.0 ) = 21.0

Singapore’s Straits Times Index respected support at 3000. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum, above zero, indicates a primary up-trend.  Follow-through above 3100 would indicate an advance to 3300*.

* Target calculation: 3000 + ( 3000 – 2700 ) = 3300

Japan’s Nikkei 225 is testing resistance at 9200. Breakout would signal a primary advance to 10200. Recovery of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow above zero indicates rising buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 9200 + ( 9200 – 8200 ) = 10200

 

Markets jumped Friday on announcement by the ECB of government bond purchases and China unveiling further stimulus measures. The Shanghai Composite is testing  the first line of resistance at 2150. Respect of 2250 would warn of another down-swing, while penetration of the (secondary) descending trendline would indicate the primary down-trend is weakening. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum, a long way below zero, continues to reflect a primary down-trend.

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is again testing resistance at 20000. Upward breakout plus 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovery above zero would indicate an advance to 22000. Respect of resistance is unlikely, but would test primary support at 18000.

India’s Sensex recovered above 17500, indicating an advance to 18500. A trough above zero on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow would indicate buying pressure.

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

Singapore’s Straits Times Index found support at 3000. Respect would indicate a test of the upper trend channel, but the lower peak on 63-day Twiggs Momentum suggests a ranging market. Breach of support at 3000 would re-test the lower trend channel.

The long tail on last week’s Nikkei 225 candle indicates short-term buying pressure and recovery above 9200 would signal an advance to 10200. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, however, continues to indicate long-term selling pressure. Recovery above zero would reverse the signal, while failure of primary support at 8200 would confirm another down-swing.

China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to a nine-month low in August, below 50 at 49.2; steel prices are at their lowest level since 2009 and rail cargo volumes have experienced their sharpest fall since 2008. In the circumstances, stocks have held up surprisingly well, with a gradual rather than vertical descent. The Shenzhen Composite index is headed for a test of support at 800 and declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero indicates a primary down-trend, but the index is still a long way above its 2008 low of 450.

* Target calculation: 800 – ( 1000 – 800 ) = 600

The Shanghai Composite is a lot closer to its 2008 low of 1660. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero indicates selling pressure and follow-through below 2100 offers a target of 1800*.

* Target calculation: 2150 – ( 2500 – 2150 ) = 1800

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng is drifting sideways, approaching the apex of its large triangle, but failure of 63-day Twiggs Momentum to cross above zero warns of downside risk. Breach of primary support at 18000 would signal a decline to 16000*.

* Target calculation: 18 – ( 20 – 18 ) = 16

India’s Sensex retreated below its new support level at 17500, warning of a false break. Penetration of the rising trendline would suggest a bull trap, while respect would test 18500*. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero would indicate selling pressure.

* Target calculation: 17.5 + ( 17.5 – 16.5 ) = 18.5

The NSE Nifty Index also retreated below its new support level and 63-day Twiggs Momentum is above zero. Respect of the rising trendline would indicate a test of 5600, while penetration would warn of a bull trap.

Singapore’s Straits Times Index is retracing to test support at 3000. The up-trend appears weak and failure of support would signal a test of the lower trend channel. It is unclear whether 63-day Twiggs Momentum will oscillate around zero, indicating a ranging market, or above zero, indicating a healthy up-trend. The next trough should clarify this: respect of zero indicating a primary up-trend.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 index retreated below 9000, indicating a false breakout. Matching peaks below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum and 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow warn of a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support at 8200 would confirm.

South Korea’s Seoul Composite index retraced to test support after breakout above 1900. Declining peaks on 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow depict rising selling pressure. Failure of support at 1900 would suggest another test of primary support at 1750.