Colin Twiggs, Author at the patient investor

March 24, 2012

India & Singapore

India’s Sensex found support at 17000. Failure would signal another test of primary support at 15000, but 13-week Twiggs Money Flow remains above zero and respect of support is more likely. Recovery above 18000 would confirm tthe primary up-trend, with a target of 21000*.

BSE Sensex Index

* Target calculation: 18 + ( 18 – 15 ) = 21

The NSE Nifty Index is similarly testing medium-term support at 5200. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum holding above zero indicates a primary up-trend. Respect of support at 5200, by say recovery above 5500, would confirm the signal. Failure of support is less likely, but would signal another test of 4500.

NSE Nifty Index

* Target calculation: 5400 + ( 5400 – 4500 ) = 6300

Singapore’s Straits Times Index twice penetrated resistance at 3000, confirming the primary up-trend, but each time retreated. Expect softness until quarter-end followed by another breakout attempt. Target for the advance is 3300*.

Singapore Straits Times Index

* Target calculation: 2900 + ( 2900 – 2500 ) = 3300

March 24, 2012

Bill Gates investing in nuclear power

Bill Gates talks about his investment in Generation IV nuclear power.

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March 24, 2012

Europe hesitates

Dow Jones Europe Index retreated below 260, indicating a correction to test support at 247. Respect would indicate a healthy up-trend, while a fall below 240 would signal reversal. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure, suggesting continuation of the up-trend.

Dow Jones Europe Index

* Target calculation: 260 + ( 260 – 210 ) = 310

The FTSE 100 is also retracing to test support, at 5600. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates long-term buying pressure. Respect of the long-term trendline would signal continuation of the primary up-trend.

FTSE 100 Index

* Target calculation: 5700 + ( 5700 – 5100 ) = 6300

March 24, 2012

Canada: TSX 60

Canada’s TSX 60 index found strong support at 700. Rising 13-week Twiggs Money Flow signals buying pressure. Recovery above 720 would indicate a primary advance to 820*; follow-through above 730 would confirm.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 720 + ( 720 – 620 ) = 820

March 24, 2012

Secondary correction, but watch Fedex

The weekly S&P 500 chart suggests retracement to the new support level at 1370. No major deviation on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow indicates this is merely a secondary correction. Respect of 1350 would signal a primary advance. Long-term target for the breakout is 1600*.

S&P 500 Index

* Target calculation: 1350 + ( 1350 – 1100 ) = 1600

Nasdaq 100 Index similarly displays a bearish divergence on 21-day Twiggs Money Flow but no major deviation on the 13-week indicator, suggesting a secondary correction to the long-term rising trendline.

Nasdaq 100 Index

* Target calculation: 2400 + ( 2400 – 2050 ) = 2750

Bellwether transport stock Fedex, however, displays a stronger bearish divergence, on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow. Failure of support at 88.00 would indicate reversal to a primary down-trend; follow-through below 86.00 would confirm. A Fedex down-trend would warn that economic activity is slowing.

Fedex

March 22, 2012

Gold Bugs warn of a primary down-trend

Amex Gold Bugs Index, representing un-hedged gold stocks, followed through below 480, after breaking primary support at 500, confirming a primary down-trend. Peaks below the zero line on 63-day Twiggs Momentum also signal a primary down-trend. The Gold Bugs index often acts as a leading indicator of trend changes in spot gold prices. Expect further weakness in the yellow metal; breach of support at $1500/ounce would confirm a primary down-trend.

Amex Gold Bugs Index

March 22, 2012

Pimco Eyes Aussie Bond Boom – WSJ

“We really are in a secular shift for greater demand for fixed income securities in Australia,” John Wilson, the head of the global bond giant’s [Pimco’s] Australia operations told Deal Journal Australia. “That’s why you will see increasing issuance in the domestic market by domestic issuers.”

“We are seeing this notably in our flows in the wealth management business. Private investors are seeking recurring income and capital stability,” he said.

In recent weeks some of Australia’s national champions–such as retailing giant Woolworths and conglomerate Wesfarmers–have issued local currency debt even as some of the country’s other big corporates have skipped local investors and borrowed elsewhere.

via Pimco Eyes Aussie Bond Boom – Deal Journal Australia – WSJ.

March 22, 2012

China Factory Activity Slows – WSJ.com

Data in recent weeks has painted an increasingly gloomy picture of slowing manufacturing, weak exports and tepid bank lending in China. The latest indicator to spook markets came Thursday with the flash HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index, an initial reading on manufacturing activity in March. The PMI fell to a preliminary reading of 48.1, down from 49.6 in February.

The March PMI reading marks the fifth straight month the index has indicated contraction, signaling extended difficulties for the nation’s manufacturers. A reading below 50 indicates contraction from the previous month, while anything above that indicates growth.

via China Factory Activity Slows – WSJ.com.

March 22, 2012

Playing Pyongyang's Games – WSJ.com

MICHAEL AUSLIN: It took barely two weeks for North Korea to play its old game of bait and switch, this time gutting the Feb. 29 “Leap Day Agreement” with the Obama administration that promised a moratorium on nuclear and missile testing. In an Ides of March announcement, Pyongyang revealed it would conduct a “satellite launch” on April 15, which coincides with the 100th anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, founder of the North Korean regime.

….In a sense, the Obama administration has only itself to blame for this mess. For three years, it wisely avoided playing Pyongyang’s games. Unlike the Bush administration, which became increasingly desperate to patch holes in a flawed policy of making ever more concessions for little in return, the Obama team kept contact with former leader Kim Jong Il at a minimum, and refused to enter the Alice in Wonderland world of reaching agreement with the North only to face provocation and demands for more concessions.

via Michael Auslin: Playing Pyongyang's Games – WSJ.com.

March 22, 2012

Beijing On Edge Amid Coup Rumors – CNBC

Jamil Anderlini: Jon Huntsman, a former Republican presidential hopeful and US ambassador to China who met Mr Bo [Xilai, Communist Party chief of Chongqing] a number of times, said his demise revealed serious rifts among the top leadership of the country.

“The splits in the standing committee [over reform] are as pronounced now as they were during the [1989] Tiananmen Square period,” Mr Huntsman said. “Politics in China is a rough and tumble business. This is an open and public evidence of this and what happens behind the velvet curtain that the world never sees.”

via Beijing On Edge Amid Coup Rumors – Asia Business News – CNBC.