Weak jobs and falling crude = September rate cut

Key Points

• The Fed will likely cut interest rates in September after a weak jobs report.
• Falling crude oil prices also ease inflationary pressure.
• Long-term Treasury yields fall, anticipating a rate cut.
• The dollar weakened as yields softened, while gold soared to a new high of $3,600 per ounce.

---

The August labor report disappointed with a low 22,000 job growth compared to an expected 75,000.

Growth in total weekly hours worked came to a complete halt in August, with annual growth falling to 0.7%. Real GDP growth will likely follow.

The uptrend in continued claims confirms the August rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.

The unemployment level ( 7.4m ) now exceeds job openings ( 7.2m ), but only by 200K.

Temporary jobs fell to 2.5 million, a level typically seen during recessions.

Layoffs and discharges are in an uptrend.

The 2.0% quit rate indicates that employees are no longer confident in finding new jobs.

Average hourly earnings growth slowed to an annualized rate of 3.3% in August, but year/year growth was steady at 3.9%, indicating a balanced labor market.

Crude Oil

OPEC+ has injected a lot of downside pricing risk into the oil markets this week, fueling speculation that the second wave of voluntary cuts totaling 1.65 million b/d could be unwound much quicker than previously expected. According to news reports, Saudi Arabia is interested in pushing ahead with the unwinding during the September 7 meeting, citing the need to regain market share. (OilPrice.com)

The move has the potential to create a massive oversupply. Brent crude fell to $65.50 per barrel on Friday, but if the Saudis succeed, expect a test of support at $60. Falling crude prices would likely cause a drop in US production as shale producer margins are squeezed.

Lower energy prices would ease inflationary pressures in the US, allowing more room for Fed rate cuts.

ISM Services

The ISM services PMI improved to 52% in August, indicating expansion.

New orders jumped to 56%, signaling an improving outlook.

However, services employment signals contraction, confirming the weak labor report.

A steep 69.2% for the prices sub-index also warns of strong inflationary pressures.

Contracting employment and rising prices in the large services sector warn of stagflation. We expect the Fed to cut in September, but then pause to see how this affects prices.

Stocks

A weak labor report is a bearish sign for stocks despite the prospect of a Fed rate cut. A reversal of the S&P 500 below support at 6400 would warn of a correction.

We expect the Dow Jones Industrial Average to test support at 45,000. Respect of support would confirm another advance. A breach is less likely, but would signal a test of 44,000.

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed Index retreated to -0.526, warning that financial conditions are tightening.

Tighter financial conditions are also highlighted by a decline in bank reserves to below $3.2 trillion.

Bitcoin is testing support at 110K. A breach would warn of a swing to risk-off in financial markets, which would be bearish for stocks.

Treasury Markets

10-year Treasury yields plunged to 4.09%, heading for a test of long-term support at 4.0% as speculators pile into bonds ahead of the expected September rate cut. However, we have warned of the risk that long-term yields rise in response to a Fed cut — as in September last year.

Dollar & Gold

The dollar weakened in response to the poor jobs report, anticipating falling interest rates.

Gold surged to a new high at $3,600 per ounce before closing at $3,587. Expect another test of support at $3,500, but respect will likely confirm another advance — and our year-end target of $4,000.

Silver is retracing to test support at $40, but respect will likely confirm another advance and a target of $44.

Conclusion

Weak jobs growth in August warns that economic growth is slowing, but the ISM services report warns of strong price pressures in the services sector. We expect a Fed rate cut in September but then a pause as the Fed remains wary of stagflation, with low growth and rising prices.

We expect the dollar to weaken in response to rate cuts, with gold and silver soaring to new highs.

The Fed should take care to avoid a repeat of last September, when Fed rate cuts sparked a sell-off in long-term Treasuries, signaling the bond market’s displeasure with monetary and fiscal policy. We believe they will aim for a gradual decline, with a pause after the September cut to assess the impact of tariffs and a slowing economy on prices.

A Saudi move to increase crude oil production would likely drive Brent crude to $60 per barrel or below, giving the Fed more room to cut rates.

Acknowledgments

• CoinDesk: Bitcoin
• Federal Reserve of St Louis: FRED Data
• OilPrice.com: OPEC+ Dials Up Downside Risk as Saudis Eye Further Output Hikes
• BEA: US International Trade in Goods and Services, June 2025
• Institute for Supply Management: ISM Report on Business
• University of Michigan: Consumer Surveys
• Reuters: US trade gap skids to 2-year low; tariffs exert pressure on service sector
• Reuters: Ford raises projected tariff hit to results, shares drop 3%