Continued clashes between rival mining unions fueled further weakening of the South African Rand against the greenback.
Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum reflects a strong primary up-trend. Breakout above R9.00 would offer a medium-term target of R9.50. In the long-term, the next major resistance level is the 2008 high of R11.00.
The Euro retreated after encountering resistance at $1.2400/1.2450. Respect of the rising trendline, however, would confirm that the primary down-trend is losing momentum and a bottom is forming. Recovery above $1.2450 would strengthen the signal. Reversal below $1.2150 would warn of another down-swing — confirmed if primary support at $1.2050 is broken — with a target of $1.185.
* Target calculation: 1.215 – ( 1.245 – 1.215 ) = 1.185
Pound Sterling’s up-trend against the Euro continues on the Weekly chart. Respect of support at €1.255 would indicate an advance to €1.315*. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum is evidence of a strong primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.285 + ( 1.285 – 1.255 ) = 1.315
Canada’s Loonie broke above parity, headed for a test of resistance against the greenback at $1.02. Long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum and recovery above zero suggest a primary up-trend.
The Aussie Dollar is similarly headed for a test of resistance at $1.08 against the greenback. Breakout would offer a long-term target of $1.20* but calls for RBA intervention to prevent further appreciation are growing. Professor Warwick McKibbin told The Australian Financial Review:
When a portfolio shift into Australian currency is observed, the exchange rate change should be completely offset so the shock only affects the money markets rather than the real economy. If the shock cannot be observed precisely then the central bank should “lean against the wind”, that is intervene to slow down the extent of appreciation of the exchange rate.
* Target calculation: 1.08 + ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 1.20
The Aussie retreated from resistance at R8.75 against the South African Rand and is testing support at R8.50. Failure of support would signal a primary down-trend with an initial target of $8.25*.
* Target calculation: 8.50 – ( 8.75 – 8.50 ) = 8.25
The Aussie broke medium-term resistance at ¥82.50 against the Japanese Yen, heading for a test of the upper range border at ¥88/¥90. The Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen has been a good reflection of global risk tolerance since 2009, oscillating between ¥72 and ¥90 as risk tolerance rises or falls. Rising 63-Day Twiggs Momentum and recovery above zero suggest a primary up-trend as the Aussie Dollar’s status as a reserve currency grows, attracting capital inflows.
The Euro retreated from resistance at $1.24 to test support at $1.22. Downward breakout would test the 2010 low of $1.19. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to indicate a strong down-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.27 – 1.23 ) = 1.19
Pound Sterling broke short-term support at €1.27 against the Euro, warning of a correction to €1.25. Respect of support at €1.25, however, would suggest a healthy up-trend.
Canada’s Loonie is testing parity against the greenback. Breakout would advance to $1.02. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would indicate a primary up-trend, while a break above $1.02 would confirm.
The Aussie Dollar retreated from resistance at $1.05*. Reversal below $1.045 would test the rising trendline but penetration below $1.03 is unlikely. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero suggests a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 1.05 + ( 1.05 – 1.02 ) = 1.08
The Aussie Dollar respected support at R8.50 South African Rand before rallying to R8.75. Breakout is likely and would offer a target of R9.00*.
* Target calculation: 8.75 + ( 8.75 – 8.50 ) = 9.00
The Australian Dollar is consolidating mid-range (between ¥72 and ¥90) against the Japanese Yen. Breakout above ¥82.50 is likely and would test the upper range border, while reversal below ¥79.50 would test primary support. Recovery of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the bull signal.
The Euro retraced to test its new resistance level at $1.23. Respect would confirm a decline to test the 2010 low at $1.19*. Declining 63-day Twiggs Momentum continues to signal a strong down-trend. Breach of the 2010 low would become likely if the ECB indicated an intention to directly or indirectly purchase government bonds — and would suggest long-term weakness.
* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.27 – 1.23 ) = 1.19
Pound Sterling’s up-trend against the Euro is accelerating, with steep advances followed by short corrections. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum confirms. Target for the current advance is €1.295*.
* Target calculation: 1.255 + ( 1.255 – 1.215 ) = 1.295
Canada’s Loonie continues to weaken against the Aussie Dollar but long-term bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum (and breach of the descending trendline) warns of reversal to an up-trend. Breakout above parity would confirm.
The Aussie Dollar broke resistance at $1.03 USD and is headed for a test of $1.05*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would suggest a primary up-trend, but we first need a correction to form a higher low (trough).
* Target calculation: 1.03 + ( 1.03 – 1.01 ) = 1.05
The Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at R8.50 South African Rand after respecting support at R8.30. Breakout would offer a target of R8.70*.
* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 8.30 ) = 8.70
The Australian Dollar/Japanese Yen is a good reflection of global risk tolerance. Euphoric highs of 2007 were followed by blind panic in 2008/2009 before settling into a mid-range oscillation between ¥72 and ¥90 — suitable for range traders. The higher low in 2012 reflects a more bullish stance but we are a long way from breakout above ¥90. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating around zero mirrors the uncertainty.
The Euro broke support at $1.25 before falling sharply through $1.24, warning of another decline. Narrow consolidation below the new resistance level is a bearish sign. Follow-through below $1.23 would offer a target of $1.20.
Pound Sterling broke resistance at €1.25 against the Euro, offering a target of €1.28.
* Target calculation: 1.250 + ( 1.250 – 1.215 ) = 1.285
Canada’s Loonie is strengthening against the US Dollar on the back of rising oil prices. Expect another test of $1.02.
The Aussie Dollar threatens to break down from its recent flag formation. Failure of support at $1.025 would suggest a test of $1.01.
The Aussie Dollar continues to range between ¥72 and ¥90 Japanese Yen. Dips are getting shorter and range traders may need to move their base to ¥75.
Against the South African Rand, the Aussie Dollar is testing resistance at R8.50. Breakout would offer a target of R9.00. Narrow consolidation above R8.30 would be a bullish sign.
* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 9.00
The Euro is testing its new resistance level at $1.26. Respect would offer a target of $1.17*. Bullish divergence on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, however, warns that the down-trend is weakening; recovery above zero would suggest reversal to a primary up-trend. Breach of the descending trendline would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1.26 – ( 1.35 – 1.26 ) = 1.17
Pound Sterling displays a strong up-trend against the euro, again testing resistance at €1.25. Breakout would signal an advance to €1.30*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating high above zero indicates trend strength.
* Target calculation: 1.26 + ( 1.26 – 1.22 ) = 1.30
The Greenback has corrected sharply against the Japanese Yen before finding medium-term support at ¥78. Recovery above ¥80 (and the descending trendline) would indicate that the correction is over, while breach of support would test primary support at ¥75.50/76.50. The long-term bullish divergence on 63-Day Twiggs Momentum continues to warn of reversal to an up-trend.
* Target calculation: 84 + ( 84 – 78 ) = 90
Sharply falling crude oil prices have weakened Canada’s Loonie relative to the Aussie Dollar. Against the greenback, the Loonie bounced of short-term support at $0.96 but this is unlikely to last and we should expect a test of primary support at $0.94/0.95. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would warn of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 0.98 – 0.96 ) = 0.94
The Aussie Dollar lifted along with commodity prices and is headed for a test of $1.02 (USD). Upward breakout would signal an advance to $1.08, while respect of resistance (and the descending trendline) would warn of a decline to $0.90*. A 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero would strengthen the bear signal.
* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.02 – 0.96 ) = 0.90
The Aussie Dollar is headed for a test of resistance at R8.50 (South African Rand). Breakout would offer a target of R9.00*. Reversal of 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero, however, would warn of a primary down-trend.
* Target calculation: 8.50 + ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 9.00
Canada’s Loonie may be strengthening against the Aussie Dollar but is headed for another test of primary support at $0.95 against the greenback. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $0.95 would confirm.
* Target calculation: 0.95 – ( 1.02 – 0.95 ) = 0.88
The Australian Dollar is following commodities lower, headed for a test of primary support at $0.96. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support at $0.96 would warn of a primary down-trend with a long-term target of $0.84. Recovery above $1.02 is unlikely but would indicate another test of $1.08.
* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 0.84
The Australian Dollar respected resistance at R8.30 against the South African Rand. Expect another test of R7.90. Breach would warn of a decline to R7.50*. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating close to zero indicates uncertainty and breakout above R8.30 would test long-term resistance at R8.50.
* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50
Canada’s Loonie broke support at $0.995 and the rising trendline against the greenback, indicating another test of primary support at $0.95. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $0.95 would confirm.
The Australian Dollar is expected to follow commodities lower, testing primary support at $0.96. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of another primary decline. Recovery above $1.02 is unlikely but would indicate an advance to $1.08.
The Australian Dollar strengthened against the South African Rand, but respect of resistance at R8.30 would warn of a decline to R7.50*. Breach of support at R7.90 would confirm. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum oscillating close to zero indicates uncertainty, however, and breakout above R8.30 would test long-term resistance at R8.50.
* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50
Weakening commodity prices are dragging the Australian Dollar lower against the greenback. Breach of support at $1.02 indicates another test of primary support at $0.96. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero already warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of primary support at $0.96 would confirm, offering a long-term target of $0.84*.
* Target calculation: 0.96 – ( 1.08 – 0.96 ) = 0.84
Canada’s Loonie is strengthening against the Australian Dollar, having penetrated its long-term descending trendline and with 63-day Twiggs Momentum recovering above zero. Breakout above parity would signal the start of a primary up-trend.
The Loonie retreated against the greenback, testing support at $0.995 after a false break above $1.01. Failure of support would confirm a bull trap and test primary support at $0.95. Recovery above $1.01 remains as likely, however, and would signal a primary advance; respect of zero by 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 1.01 + ( 1.01 – 0.96 ) = 1.06
The Aussie found support at R7.90 against the South African Rand. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum remains weak and reversal below zero would indicate a primary down-trend. Failure of support at R7.90 would warn of a correction to R7.50*. Recovery above R8.30, however, would signal a fresh primary advance.
* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50
The Australian dollar has tracked the CRB Commodities Index fairly closely since 2009. Weakening commodity prices warn that the Aussie is likely to follow.
Against the US dollar, the Aussie is headed for another test of support at $1.02. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at $1.02 would confirm this, offering an initial target of $0.99.
* Target calculation: 1.02 – ( 1.05 – 1.02 ) = 0.99
Canada’s Loonie is in a primary up-trend against the Aussie dollar — as signaled by the 63-day Twiggs Momentum cross to above zero. Breakout above $0.982 completes a bullish ascending triangle formation with a target of parity.
* Target calculation: 0.98 + ( 0.98 – 0.96 ) = 1.00
The Aussie is also weakening against the South African Rand. Cross of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at R7.90 would confirm, offering an initial target of R7.50*.
* Target calculation: 8.00 – ( 8.50 – 8.00 ) = 7.50
