Tag: Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

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IRGC Maintains its Stranglehold on US Treasury Yields

Key Points

  • The IRGC warns shipping that alternative routes not mandated by Tehran were “unacceptable and completely dangerous.”
  • A cargo ship on an alternative route near the coast of Oman is struck by a projectile believed to be a drone.
  • US aircraft retaliated with an attack on Iran’s coastal radar and missile sites.
  • 10-year Treasury yields are falling in response to low oil prices.
  • However, Core PCE figures for May warn that inflation is spreading across the broader economy.
  • Gold rallied above primary support at $4,000 per ounce.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are tightening control over shipping passing through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing ships to follow their advised route or face the consequences.

From the Financial Times:

At least four tankers have been turned back by Iran while attempting to exit the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, as Tehran appeared to challenge an evacuation route issued by the International Maritime Organization.

The IMO on Tuesday said that after “discussions with all parties” it had established a safe evacuation corridor hugging the Omani coast for ships and seafarers that had been stuck in the Gulf for more than 100 days.

But the Blue Star I, SG Pegasus, Azumasan and Omega Trader either made a U-turn or changed course from the IMO’s route on Thursday, according to ship tracking data. Analysts said the diversions were likely to have been made after instructions from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which said routes not mandated by Tehran were “unacceptable and completely dangerous.”

That setback comes one day after 62 vessels managed to traverse the strait, according to data from Windward, the best single-day showing since hostilities commenced on Feb. 28.

Later, an IRGC drone attack was reported on a cargo ship traveling close to the coast of Oman.

LONDON/MAMANA/DUBAI, June 25 (Reuters) – The U.N. International Maritime Organization paused its operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday after a vessel reported an attack, reigniting concerns about ‌whether a preliminary deal to end the Iran war will hold.

The cargo ship said it was hit close to Oman by a projectile, British navy agency UKMTO said, hours after Tehran warned vessels against taking routes that it had not approved.

Two U.S. officials told Reuters that Iran had fired on the ship, while Iran’s Persian Gulf Strait Authority, which Tehran established to manage requests for ships to travel through the strait, said vessels outside routes it has set will ​not be guaranteed safe passage.

“Consequences arising from passage through unauthorized routes shall be the responsibility of the owner, operator, and vessel commander,” the Iranian authority said.

The US military retaliated with airstrikes on Friday:

WASHINGTON/DUBAI, June 26 (Reuters) – The U.S. military attacked Iran on Friday in response to an Iranian drone strike on a ‌cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, with each country accusing the other of violating terms of a ceasefire agreed on last week.

U.S. Central Command said aircraft struck missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites, and a U.S. official reported the operation had concluded. Iran said a projectile struck the area around a pier in Sirik in southern Iran, and that Iranian naval forces responded by striking U.S. military targets in the region.

Brent Crude futures (Aug’26) fell 2%, however, on news that Israel and Lebanon had signed an interim ceasefire agreement while terms of a broader agreement are negotiated.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE August'26)

JERUSALEM/BEIRUT/WASHINGTON, June 26 (Reuters) – Israel and Lebanon signed a framework agreement in Washington on Friday following several days of talks to secure an end to fighting between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah militants, though ‌both sides framed the deal as an initial step.

Lebanese Ambassador Nada Moawad and her Israeli counterpart Yechiel Leiter signed the trilateral document with the U.S. at the State Department in Washington, providing few details.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the agreement allows Israeli forces to continue to occupy southern Lebanon if Hezbollah does not disarm.

PCE Inflation

Headline PCE inflation jumped to 4.1% for the 12 months to May 2026, while the Core PCE index, excluding Food and Energy, rose to 3.4%. The rising Core index indicates that inflation is no longer affecting just energy-related items, but is spreading into the broader economy.

PCE & Core PCE

The monthly increase for May was even higher at annualized rates of 5.4% and 3.8% for Headline and Core PCE, respectively.

PCE & Core PCE Inflation - Monthly

PCE for Energy remained elevated at 4.03% for May, an annualized rate of 48%, but we expect it to decline in June.

PCE Energy Inflation

However, higher fuel prices are now baked into supply chain costs and will likely persist for the next 3 to 6 months before inflationary pressures ease. PCE for Services, excluding Energy and Housing, increased at an annualized rate of 6.3% in May, indicating that inflationary pressures are spreading across the broader economy.

PCE Services Inflation

The spread of inflation across the broader economy increases pressure on the Fed to raise interest rates to slow the economy and halt the spread.

Treasury & Financial Markets

10-year Treasury yields are falling sharply in response to lower oil prices, with expectations of lower inflation running ahead of the supply chain lag.

10-Year Treasury Yield

2-year Treasury yields also eased to 4.12% but remain well above the Fed funds target range of 3.5%-3.75%, with at least one 25-basis-point rate hike expected this year.

2-Year Treasury Yield (CNBC)

Bitcoin1 continues testing primary support at 60,000. A breach would signal another decline, signaling a hard shift in financial markets toward risk-off.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Stocks

The S&P 500 lost ground for the fourth week, while declining Trend index peaks indicate secondary selling pressure, warning of a correction to test 7000.

S&P 500

The Magnificent 7 mega-cap stocks are leading the sell-off, with the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) headed for a test of primary support at 55. One of the key signals of the final stage of a bull market is when former leading stocks no longer participate in the advance.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

Dollar & Gold

The US Dollar Index broke through resistance as the oil price fell, but is now retracing to test its new support level. Respect would signal an advance with a target of 104.

Dollar Index

Gold recovered above primary support at $4,000 per ounce, buoyed by Dollar weakness and declining Treasury yields, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding Gold and Silver.

Spot Gold

Silver has also retraced to test its former support level at $60 per ounce.

Spot Silver

The decline in the broad DJ-UBS Commodity Index since March 2026 coincides with the steep rise in 10-year US Treasury yields. Rising long-term interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding commodities and precious metals.

DJ-UBS Commodity Index

Conclusion

The uptrend in 10-year Treasury yields has reversed amid falling oil prices and will likely strengthen demand for commodities and precious metals, provided crude oil prices remain low.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards are keeping tensions in the Strait of Hormuz simmering. Not enough to spark a major conflict with the US, but sufficient to keep shipping in the Strait of Hormuz under their control. The US continues to deplete its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to alleviate the supply shortage and keep prices low, but this makes it more vulnerable to further threats to restrict the flow of oil through the Strait.

President Trump would be happy for negotiations with Iran to be drawn out, provided that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to shipping in the interim. But the Iranians are aware that their leverage expires with the November midterm elections, and we can expect ongoing threats to close the Strait. The path of crude oil prices is therefore difficult to predict.

We expect a long-term secular uptrend in Gold and Commodities relative to the Dollar. This is based on CBO projections that federal debt (held by the public) relative to GDP will exceed its post-WWII high of 106% before 2030 and expand to 175% of GDP by 2056.

CBO Projections of Debt Held by the Public as a Percentage of GDP

Aside from default, the only solution to the debt spiral is to suppress interest rates and allow inflation to run hot, so that GDP expands faster than federal debt, as in the 1950s to 1970s.

However, the budget deficit is running at close to 6.0% of GDP, and will likely expand further as the US invests in critical supply chains and ramps up defense spending, so even suppressing interest rates is unlikely to be sufficient.

CBO Projected Federal Deficit as a Percentage of GDP

 

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
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A Lull in Hostilities

Key Points

  • Hostilities in Lebanon faded.
  • Tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz increased.
  • Brent Crude futures fell to $77.64 per barrel.
  • 2-year Treasury yields rose above 4.20% amid expectations of tighter Fed monetary policy.

Brent Crude futures (Aug’26) fell to $77.64 per barrel on reports of a lull in hostilities in Lebanon.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE August'26)

Prices fell more than 3% on Monday after ​the United States granted Iran a 60-day sanctions waiver following initial peace talks, ​and as officials reported a lull in hostilities in Lebanon under the ⁠broader agreement.

“The gradual increase in oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz continues to weigh ​on the market,” said ING analysts in a note.

Two crude tankers with just under 2 ​million barrels of oil sailed through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, ship-tracking data showed, in a sign that traffic was picking up following weaker flows on Sunday due to concerns over passage through the ​waterway. (Reuters)

The text of the Memorandum of Understanding signed by the US and Iran can be separated into two parts. The MOU is mostly “talks about talks” where the parties merely agree to negotiate the terms of a Final Deal, but it contains an agreement to cease hostilities while negotiations take place, including:

  • Immediate termination of hostilities on all fronts, including Lebanon.
  • Ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon.
  • The US to lift its blockade of Iranian shipping.
  • The US to waive existing sanctions against Iranian crude oil and petroleum exports.
  • The US to release frozen or restricted funds and assets belonging to Iran.
  • Iran will make its “best efforts” to ensure the safe passage of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

The MOU offers Iran a financial reward in exchange for allowing safe passage through the Strait. The deal is tenuous, and already the IRGC has threatened to close the Strait due to ongoing hostilities in Lebanon.

Israel is not a signatory to the MOU, and will not readily agree to the first two terms if it feels that they compromise their national defense. The Gulf States are also not signatories, and will similarly defend their national interests.

Financial Markets

2-year Treasury yields climbed to 4.209%, more than 45 basis points above the Fed funds target range, in expectation of tighter Fed monetary policy.

2-Year Treasury Yield (CNBC)

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index below -0.50 continues to signal easy monetary conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

Bitcoin1 is testing primary support at 60,000, signaling a shift in financial markets to risk-off. A breach of support would warn of a market-wide contraction.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Treasury Markets

10-year Treasury yields firmed to 4.51%, suggesting another test of resistance at 4.75%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Stocks

SpaceX retreated to test its June 12 opening price of 150.

SpaceX

The Magnificent 7 also lost ground, with the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) retreating below support at 68 on the weekly chart below. Declining Trend Index peaks warn of a correction.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

The S&P 500 also shows signs of secondary selling pressure.

S&P 500

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar strengthened amid expectations of higher short-term interest rates. Breakout of the US Dollar Index above 100.50 indicates an advance to 103, but first expect retracement to test support at 100.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing primary support at $4,000 per ounce, with declining Trend Index peaks warning of selling pressure. A breach of $4,000 would indicate another decline, but beware of a bear trap. Gold is in a secular uptrend that we expect to last for decades.

Spot Gold

Energy

The Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index broke support at 575, signaling a primary downtrend.

Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index

Uranium

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF2 (URNM) broke primary support at 58, also signaling a downtrend.

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)

Copper

Copper is testing support at 13,500, and declining Trend Index peaks warn of selling pressure. A breach of support would warn of a bull trap, with a decline to test the 50-week moving average.

Copper

Sprott Copper Miners ETF2 (COPP) reinforces the bearish copper chart, retreating from resistance between 44 and 45 while Trend Index peaks below zero warn of persistent selling pressure.

Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)

Lithium

Sprott Lithium Miners ETF2 (LITP) is also retreating, and a fall below 13 would test primary support at 11.

Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)

Critical Minerals

Sprott Critical Materials ETF2 (SETM) shows similar signs of selling pressure, and another test of primary support at 30 is likely.

Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)

Conclusion

Brent Crude and oil and gas stocks are falling as the Strait of Hormuz is tentatively reopened, but the real test will be the impact of global strategic reserves. A continued decline would cause a rebound in energy prices.

Financial markets are shedding high-risk assets amid expectations of tighter monetary policy. Declining Trend Index peaks on the S&P 500 signal a correction.

The Dollar is strengthening, and Gold is headed for another test of support at $4,000 per ounce, but these moves run counter to their secular trends where we expect Dollar weakness and Gold strength.

Energy metals are experiencing a broad sell-off amid expectations of lower oil and gas prices if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened.

Uncertainty remains high, and we expect elevated volatility in the months ahead. We adopt a defensive stance, with minimal exposure to high-multiple growth stocks and long-duration financial assets. Value stocks with stable income streams and short-duration financial assets are a haven in times of volatility, but we still expect a secular uptrend in Gold and maintain our position.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
  2. We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.
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No Quick Exit

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures (May’26) rose after President Trump paused his threatened attack on Iran’s energy facilities until April 6.
  • The S&P 500 broke primary support at 6550.
  • The Dollar strengthens with the prospect of higher interest rates.
  • Gold tests primary support at $4,400 per ounce.

Brent crude rallied to $109 per barrel on news that negotiations may take longer than initially indicated. Retracement will likely respect support at $105 per barrel, signaling another test of $114.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE May'26)

Markets continue to receive conflicting messages on the war with Iran.

President Trump said he would extend a pause to attack Iran’s energy facilities to April 6, a little over a week after the original deadline that was set to end Friday.

“As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” (CNBC)

Iran’s Foreign Minister ruled out direct talks with the US but says they are reviewing the US 15-point proposal submitted through Pakistani intermediaries.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said Wednesday that Operation Epic Fury is “almost done” and is “wrapping up.”

….Johnson said that the objectives of the operation “have been met,” but access to the Strait of Hormuz still needs to be “straightened out.” (CBS)

The military buildup continues:

WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) – The Pentagon is expected to send ​thousands of soldiers from the U.S. Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, two people familiar with the ‌matter told Reuters on Tuesday, adding to a massive U.S. military buildup even as President Donald Trump talks about a possible deal with Tehran to end the war.

The New York Post:

The Pentagon is reportedly considering a plan to send an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East amid the war with Iran.

The potential deployment would likely include infantry and armored vehicles and would be on top of the 5,000 Marines and sailors and roughly 2,000 members of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division who have already been dispatched to the region, according to the Wall Street Journal.

When one party threatens the other, it is normally a sign that the negotiation is not going well:

President Trump is ready to “unleash hell” on Iran if Tehran does not accept a deal to end the war in the Middle East, the White House warned on Wednesday.

“If Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment, if they fail to understand that they have been defeated militarily and will continue to be, President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a briefing.

“President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell.” (CBS)

Iran and Israel seem to have longer-term objectives, but President Trump is desperate for an off-ramp. Opinion polls show the war is unpopular in the US:

Reuters/Ipsos Opinion Poll

The Iranians know that the closer it gets to the US midterms in November, the greater their leverage.

Trump has few good options: escalate the conflict or settle on a potentially bad deal with a weakened yet defiant Iran that has choked off much of the world’s oil supply….

A clear and quick victory could pay dividends for Trump politically. But a settlement that credibly contains Iran appears to be far off….

The terms required to wind the war down may involve concessions to Tehran that do not satisfy Israel, which appears to want to press ahead. (Reuters)

Copper continues its downtrend, warning that the global economy is slowing.

Copper

Mega-cap technology stocks are dragging the major indices lower. The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) signals a strong bear trend after breaking primary support at 63 in early February.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

The S&P 500 has now followed with a breach of primary support at 6550, confirmed by the recent dead cat bounce.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing the primary support band between 45,500 and 46,000. A breach would confirm the S&P 500 bear market signal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) shows that large caps are now outperforming mega caps, which had led the market for several years. It’s all relative, however. Declining Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Bitcoin1 continues to test the support band between 64,000 and 70,000, indicating that financial markets have become risk-averse.

Bitcoin (BTC)

10-year Treasury yields respected support at 4.3%, offering a short-term target of 4.65% as the prospect of further rate cuts fades.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The US Dollar Index is testing resistance at 100, driven by the prospect of higher interest rates.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing primary support at $4,400 per ounce. Respect, indicated by recovery above $4,600, would indicate another test of $5,000, while a breach would offer a target of $4,000.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

Mixed messaging over negotiations with Iran indicates that progress is slow. Conflicting objectives between the US and Israel may also prevent a quick resolution to the war against Iran. A quick exit is unlikely.

A downtrend in copper prices warns that the global economy is slowing.

The S&P 500 broke support at 6550, signaling a primary downtrend. A Dow Jones Industrial Average breach of primary support at 45,500 would confirm a bear market.

The prospect of higher interest rates, with the market pricing out further rate cuts, has strengthened the Dollar, triggering a selloff in gold. A breach of primary support at $4,400 per ounce would offer a target of $4,000, while respect of support would signal another test of $5,000.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
Posted on

S&P 500 Bear Market Warning

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures (May’26) rose to $112 per barrel.
  • 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.39%.
  • The S&P 500 broke primary support at 6550.

The war in Iran is in danger of escalating, sending the global economy into recession.

WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against ​Iran, said a U.S. official and three people familiar with the matter.

The deployments could help provide Trump with additional options as he weighs expanding U.S. operations, with the Iran war well into ‌its third week.

Those options include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the Strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran’s shoreline, said four sources, including two U.S. officials.

Reuters granted the sources anonymity to speak about military planning.

The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, the three people familiar with the matter and three U.S. ​officials said. One of the officials said such an operation would be very risky. Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones.

News of preparations for a ground war spooked financial markets.

CBS News said “heavy preparations” were being made for sending ground troops to Iran, citing multiple sources….

“If this is an escalation involving troops on the ground, then we’re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this sort of market of higher oil prices, high gas prices; you’re hanging on every headline about energy infrastructure in the region,” Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said to CNBC. “Quite frankly, equity markets haven’t sold off in a way that would reflect this sort of event yet, so there could still be some some downside ahead.” (CNBC)

Brent crude futures (ICE May’26) climbed above $112 per barrel by the close of the week.

Brent Crude

Ten-year Treasury yields spiked up 4.39%. The breakout above the 4.3% resistance level indicates another test of the 2023 high at 5.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The S&P 500 broke primary support at 6550, warning of a bear market.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing primary support at 45,500. A breach of the support level would confirm the S&P 500 bear market signal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) has already broken support at 60, confirming a primary downtrend in the seven mega-cap technology stocks that led the bull market advance.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index jumped to -0.486, the uptick above its preceding peak warning of a contraction in financial market liquidity.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

The downtrend in Bitcoin1 has warned of a financial market contraction since late last year.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Conclusion

Prepare for a bear market. The Dow will likely break support at 45,500 next week, confirming the S&P 500 bear signal.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
Posted on

Supreme Court Setback for Trump

Key Points

  • In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 doesn’t authorize President Donald Trump to impose tariffs.
  • The Yale Budget Lab estimated that households’ average cost burden would fall by about half in 2026, to between $600 and $800, if the Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs.
  • However, Trump administration officials previously said they would use different legal pathways to achieve an outcome similar to the IEEPA tariffs.
  • President Trump signed a proclamation Friday night that will impose a 10% duty on most imports for up to 150 days, as permitted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
  • Businesses may be able to claim refunds for IEEPA tariffs paid, but are unlikely to pass these on to consumers.

Last year, President Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on US trading partners.

He declared a national emergency, saying an influx of illegal drugs from Canada, Mexico, and China had created a public health crisis, and that large and persistent trade deficits had undermined US manufacturing. His administration used IEEPA to levy tariffs on imports to manage the perceived crises: a 10% baseline tariff on all US trading partners and higher duties on Canada, Mexico, and China.

Chief Justice John Roberts

Chief Justice John Roberts

In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled on Friday that the IEEPA doesn’t authorize the president to impose tariffs.

“The Government reads IEEPA to give the President power to unilaterally impose unbounded tariffs and change them at will,” according to the court.

“That view would represent a transformative expansion of the President’s authority over tariff policy,” their opinion argued. “It is also telling that in IEEPA’s half-century of existence, no President has invoked the statute to impose any tariffs, let alone tariffs of this magnitude and scope.”

The Yale Budget Lab estimated that households’ average cost burden would fall by about half in 2026, to between $600 and $800, if the IEEPA tariffs were overturned.

Before the ruling, Trump administration officials had said they would use different legal pathways, if overruled, to achieve roughly the same outcome as the tariffs. (CNBC)

President Trump signed a proclamation Friday night that will impose 10% tariffs on most imports to the United States, to replace the 10% IEEPA baseline tariff rate overturned by the earlier Supreme Court ruling.

The new tariffs take effect Monday and are levied under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose duties of up to 15% for 150 days to address “large and serious” balance-of-payments issues. (CBS News)

Businesses will likely claim refunds for the estimated $175 billion in IEEPA tariffs paid to date, but consumers will not receive any direct benefit. (Reuters)

Treasury Markets

10-year Treasury yields increased on news of the Supreme Court ruling, but remain close to primary support at 4.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Stocks

The S&P 500 rallied on the prospect of reduced tariffs, but will likely reverse on news of Trump’s Friday night proclamation.

S&P 500

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index reached -0.568 on February 13, signaling loose monetary conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

However, Bitcoin1 (BTC) remains below 70,000, indicating that financial markets are shedding risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Inflation

The Fed’s favored measure of underlying inflation, the core PCE index, jumped by 0.355% in December 2025, warning of an upsurge in price pressures.

Core PCE Inflation - Monthly

Annual growth in the core PCE inflation index lifted to 3.0%, and the headline PCE index increased to 2.9%.

PCE & Core PCE

The University of Michigan (UOM) survey of consumers reported a median expected price increase of 3.4% over the next year, with the 3-month average declining to 3.9%.

University of Michigan: 1-Year Inflation Expectations

Consumers

Consumer sentiment from the February UOM survey remains near record lows since the survey commenced in 1960.

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

Participants’ assessment of current economic conditions is also near the lowest ebb in more than 60 years.

University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions

Economy

Real GDP growth slowed to 0.35% in the fourth quarter, or 1.4% annualized, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Aggregate weekly hours worked grew at a slower 1.0% over the 12 months to January 2026, suggesting that GDP growth will likely slow further.

Real GDP & Growth in Total Hours Worked

Dollar & Gold

The US Dollar Index met resistance at 98 after news of the Supreme Court ruling, and we expect the downtrend to continue.

Dollar Index

Gold rallied to above $5,100 per ounce, signaling another test of resistance at $5,500.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

The Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs checks his expansive use of emergency powers in pursuit of his economic agenda. The ruling also increases the economic uncertainty that has bedeviled Trump’s economic policy, making it difficult for corporations to make long-term investment decisions.

Declining real GDP growth in the fourth quarter highlights that the US economy is heavily reliant on massive capital investment in AI data centers to keep the country out of a recession, while the broader economy shudders from one mishap to the next.

Consumer sentiment and perceptions of current economic conditions are near sixty-year lows, again reflecting the narrow economic recovery, which has failed to benefit most Americans despite low unemployment. Republicans are going to find it difficult to hold a majority in Congress after the November midterm elections, delivering a further setback to Trump’s economic agenda.

The Supreme Court decision, led by conservative Chief Justice John Roberts, is a sign that conservatives will increasingly resist Trump’s disregard for the checks and balances built into the Constitution. We have likely passed “peak Trump” on the economic front, though he will likely try to stay in the spotlight with his geopolitical agenda.

We maintain our overweight position in gold and defensive stocks with stable cash flows, while avoiding high-multiple technology stocks and long-term financial instruments.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
Posted on

Bitcoin Plunge Signals Risk-Off

Key Points

  • Bitcoin plunged to $71,200, warning that financial markets are becoming risk-averse.
  • Brent crude surged to nearly $70 per barrel amid heightened US-Iran tensions.
  • Volatility following the CME margin hike, effective Monday, triggered a broad selloff in precious metals and energy transition metals.

Bitcoin2 (BTC) broke support at 85,000, the steep decline warning that financial markets are shedding risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

The S&P 500 index retreated below 6900, but long tails and a rising Trend Index indicate strong buying interest.

S&P 500

However, the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) is headed for a test of primary support at 63, while Trend Index peaks at zero warn of selling pressure. A breach of support would be a strong bear signal.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

10-year Treasury yields are testing resistance at 4.3%. A breakout would offer a short-term target of 4.4%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

The US Dollar Index is testing resistance at 98, but remains in a long-term downtrend. Respect of resistance will likely signal another decline.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing resistance at $5,000 per ounce after Friday’s sharp fall.

Spot Gold

The primary reason for the sharp fall in copper and precious metals was not Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. On January 29, the CME announced that it was again increasing margin requirements on futures contracts, effective Monday, February 2.

Comex Margin Increase

Comex Margins

The increase in CME margin requirements is intended to discourage leveraged speculation in key contracts that show signs of overheating.

Silver had a higher speculative interest, making it more susceptible to the margin hike, with the metal testing support at $70 per ounce.

Spot Silver

Energy & Energy Transition Metals

Brent crude is testing resistance at $70 per barrel on heightened US-Iran tensions.

Brent Crude

The Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas index is in a strong uptrend, with rising Trend Index troughs reflecting buying pressure.

Dow Jones Global Oil & Gas Index

Copper

The margin hike had less effect on copper, which retreated to $13,000 per tonne from its recent peak of $13,500 per tonne.

Copper

Copper miners were more susceptible to the risk-off shift in financial markets, with Sprott Copper Miners ETF1 (COPP) testing support at 40.

Sprott Copper Miners ETF (COPP)

Uranium

Uranium was not directly affected by the CME margin hike but was caught up in the broader selloff, with the Sprott Uranium Miners ETF1 (URNM) testing support at 70.

Sprott Uranium Miners ETF (URNM)

Lithium

Lithium suffered a similar fate, with Sprott Lithium Miners ETF1 (LITP) breaking support at 14.

Sprott Lithium Miners ETF (LITP)

Critical Minerals

Critical materials experienced a similar selloff, with Sprott Critical Materials ETF1 (SETM) testing support at 34.

Sprott Critical Materials ETF (SETM)

Conclusion

The CME margin hike, which took effect on Monday, was intended to cause a correction in copper and precious metals. However, the selloff spread to uranium, lithium, and critical materials. Risk aversion also spread to financial markets, as evidenced by a steep fall in risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Mega-cap technology stocks have experienced a selloff, with the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) approaching its primary support level. A breach of support would be a strong bear signal for the broader S&P 500 index, with market leaders falling behind their second-tier counterparts.

We can expect further CME margin hikes as the exchange seeks to curb speculative excesses. Volatility will likely discourage speculation but have minimal impact on the secular rise in demand for gold, copper, uranium, lithium, and critical materials.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. We analyze exchange-traded funds (ETFs) to determine market sentiment towards a specific sector, industry, or commodity. The analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the particular ETF.
  2. We analyze Bitcoin (BTC) — the most volatile risk asset — to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell, for which we are ill-equipped to express an opinion, nor is it a commentary on the merits of the cryptocurrency.
Posted on

Trump Backs Down

Key Points

  • President Trump backed off his threats to seize Greenland and said he will not impose additional tariffs on EU members.
  • Stocks rallied, but the mega-cap Magnificent 7 remain under pressure.
  • Gold and silver retraced to test new support levels.

From Reuters:

On a whirlwind trip to the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, Trump backed down from weeks of rhetoric that shook the NATO alliance and risked a new global trade war.

Instead, Trump said, Western Arctic allies could forge a new deal that satisfies his desire for a “Golden Dome” missile‑defense system and access to critical minerals while blocking Russia and China’s ambitions in the Arctic. “It’s a deal that everybody’s very happy with,” Trump told reporters after emerging from a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. “It’s a long-term deal. It’s the ultimate long-term deal. It puts everybody in a really good position, especially as it pertains to security and to minerals.”
He added: “It’s a deal that’s forever.”

A NATO spokesperson said seven NATO allies in the Arctic would work together to ensure their collective security.
“Negotiations between Denmark, Greenland, and the United States will go forward aimed at ensuring that Russia and China never gain a foothold – economically or militarily – in Greenland,” the spokesperson said.

Trump said on his Truth Social platform that the US and NATO had “formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in fact, the entire Arctic Region,” and that “based upon this understanding, I will not be imposing the Tariffs that were scheduled to go into effect on February 1st.”

…Earlier in the day, the Republican US president acknowledged financial markets’ discomfort with his threats and ruled out force in a speech at the Swiss Alpine resort.
“People thought I would use force, but I don’t have to use force,” Trump said. “I don’t want to use force. I won’t use force.”

The S&P 500 rallied to test the former resistance level of 6900, but declining Trend Index peaks continue to indicate selling pressure.

S&P 500

The Nasdaq QQQ ETF displays similar selling pressure.

Invesco Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)

Selling pressure on mega-cap technology stocks is more severe, with the Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) testing primary support at 63, and the latest Trend Index peak at zero.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

Mega-caps are falling faster than small-cap stocks, with MAGS in a steep downtrend relative to the Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM).

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) relative to iShares Russell 2000 Small Caps ETF (IWM)

The post-Liberation Day regime has been particularly lucrative for the corporate halt and lame. As Apollo chief economist Torsten Slök pointed out yesterday, Russell 2000 members generating negative earnings per share have returned nearly 50% on average since the close of trading last April 2, some 20 percentage points better than the components operating in the black. Over the same period, a Goldman Sachs-compiled basket of the most heavily shorted stocks has generated a 61% return, leaving the S&P 500’s 21% figure in the dust. (Grant’s Daily)

US stocks are also underperforming their global peers, with the Dow Jones US Index ($DJUS) falling relative to the Dow Jones World Index excluding the US (W2DOW).

DJ US Index ($DJUS) & DJ World ex-US ($W2DOW)

Financial Markets

Bitcoin broke support at 90,000 but is now retracing to test the new resistance level. Recovery above 90,000 would indicate that tight liquidity is easing.

Bitcoin (BTC)

10-Year Treasury yields eased to 4.243%, headed for a test of new support at 4.20%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Dollar & Gold

The Dollar rallied after a sharp fall on Tuesday, but still displays long-term weakness.
Dollar Index

Gold is retracing after testing $4,900 per ounce on Tuesday. We expect retracement to test new support at $4,600.

Spot Gold

Silver is similarly retracing to test support, and a breach of $90 will likely indicate a correction to $80 per ounce.

Spot Silver

Conclusion

Gold and silver continue in strong uptrends. Demand is driven by concerns about geopolitical risk and fiscal stability, amid large deficits and precarious sovereign debt levels across many developed economies.

A reader asked if there are signs that a blow-off top is forming in gold and silver, but regular corrections to test new support levels ease pent-up demand and limit the risk of a blow-off.

Stocks rallied on news of easing tensions over Greenland, but mega-cap technology stocks lag. This signals the final stage of a bull market, when market leaders no longer lead the rallies and investors chase riskier small caps.

Acknowledgments

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