Key Points
- President Trump raised hopes that he is about to sign a deal with Iran that will allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Crude prices fell, along with long-term Treasury yields.
- The US economy is slowing, with real GDP growth at an annualized rate of 1.6% in the first quarter.
- Real personal income per capita declined for the third straight month.
- Personal savings plunged, warning of a recession.
Brent crude is testing support at $90 per barrel on news of an “imminent deal” with Iran.
Every time the 10-year Treasury yield reaches 4.5%, Axios runs a headline citing sources close to the President saying he is close to a deal. Crude oil futures plunge, but the deal never materializes.
WASHINGTON/CAIRO, May 28 (Reuters) – The United States and Iran reached an agreement on Thursday to extend their ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, sources told Reuters, though U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to approve it and Iranian state media said it had not been finalized.
According to four sources familiar with the matter, the agreement would extend the truce for another 60 days and allow traffic to flow through the strategic waterway while negotiators tackle difficult issues such as Iran’s nuclear program.
Trump has not yet approved the deal, the sources said. Iran has yet to comment on news of the proposed deal, which was first reported by Axios.
Ignore the BS and focus on the bottom line. There is no deal until an agreement is signed — and adhered to by all parties, including Bibi Netanyahu.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserves fell by another 9 million barrels in the week ending May 22.
If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed at the end of June, crude oil markets will panic over looming shortages.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.