Key Points
- Non-farm employment jumped by 178,000 in March, well above the expected 60,000.
- The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%.
- Growth in aggregate hours worked, however, slowed to 0.4% over the past year.
- The ISM Manufacturing Prices index jumped to 78.3%, warning of a price shock.
- Aluminium prices soared to nearly $3,600/tonne due to supply shortages caused by the war in the Persian Gulf.
- Brent crude closed the week at $109 per barrel, with no end to the Iran war in sight.
The BLS reported a 178,000 increase in non-farm payroll in March, well above the 60,000 forecast. Employment growth has been erratic, averaging less than 15,000 over the past 6 months.
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Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
