Brent Crude again found support at $105/barrel. Breakout above the trend channel and resistance at $115 would signal the end of the bear-trend and another test of $125. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would likewise suggest a primary advance. Failure would re-test primary support at $99.
* Target calculation: 115 + ( 115 – 105 ) = 125
Brent Crude is testing medium-term support at $105/barrel. Failure is likely if the dollar continues to strengthen and would mean a test of the $99/$100 primary level. Reversal of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below -5% would complete an iceberg pattern, indicating a solid primary down-trend. Breach of primary support would offer a target of $85/barrel*.
* Target calculation: 100 – ( 115 – 100 ) = 85
Roughly only 10% of an iceberg is visible at sea, with most of the ice-mass hidden below the water-line. Similarly, an “iceberg” pattern on a chart describes a situation where +/- 90% of Twiggs Momentum (or a similar indicator) is below zero with only a small peak protruding above.
CRB Commodities Index is similarly headed for a test of primary support, at 295. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Failure of support would offer a target of 265*.
* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265
That would have a negative impact on the Aussie Dollar and Canadian Loonie which closely track commodity prices.
This month’s decoupling of oil from other risk assets, could be foretelling skittishness over recent events in Iran and Syria (where a growing chorus is calling for action against Assad’s brutality), and even over today’s report from the AFP that thousands of Kuwaitis stormed parliament after demanding the prime minister’s resignation.
Additionally, borderline hostile rhetoric towards Iran after a recent explosion at a missile base is putting more focus on their tensions with Israel…..
via Here’s The Real Reason The Price Of Crude Oil Is So Strong.
The CRB Commodities Index remains in a primary down-trend. Respect of the descending trendline, with reversal below 315, would warn of another decline. Breakout above the descending trendline is less likely, but would indicate that the down-trend is weakening. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum penetrated its descending trendline but remains below zero, suggesting that the down-trend has slowed but not reversed.
* Target calculation: 295 – ( 325 – 295 ) = 265
Copper rallied to test its descending trendline at $8000/tonne. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero indicates a strong primary down-trend. Breakout above $8000 would indicate that the down-trend is weakening, while respect of the descending trendline would warn of a decline to 6000*.
* Target calculation: 7000 – ( 8000 – 7000 ) = 6000
Brent Crude broke out above its trend channel, indicating that it is forming a base above $100/barrel. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum recovered above zero to confirm the breakout. Expect retracement to test primary support at $100, but respect is now likely and would suggest a primary up-trend.
* Target calculation: 5600 – ( 6600 – 5600 ) = 5100
Nymex WTI crude is rising sharply, closing the divergence from Brent crude. News of the Seaway pipeline reversal that will relieve congestion at the Cushing, Oklahoma hub sent crude futures soaring. Expect a short retracement followed by an advance to $115.
Conclusion: Commodities remain in a primary down-trend caused by the strengthening dollar. Brent crude is forming a bottom, but rising crude prices are likely to dash hopes of an early economic recovery. Falling commodity prices should cause sympathetic weakening of the Australian Dollar and Canadian Loonie.
[Libya’s interim Oil Minister Ali Tarhouni] said oil production should reach 700,000 barrels a day by the end of the year—nearly half of prewar production—confirming estimates made earlier Thursday by the International Energy Agency.
via Libya Speeds Oil Output but Sees Hurdles Ahead – WSJ.com.
Brent Crude broke through its upper trend channel despite the strengthening dollar (one would normally expect prices to fall). The down-trend is losing momentum and (Brent) crude is likely to form a base above $100/barrel.
CRB Commodities Index is testing the descending trendline at 320. Breakout would suggest that the down-trend has weakened and the index is forming a bottom; respect would indicate another test of primary support at 295. Breach of the long term rising trendline would warn of another test of 2009 lows at 200.
Brent crude is also testing its descending trendline, at $110/barrel. Respect would signal another test of primary support at $99, while breakout would suggest that the down-trend has ended. In the long-term, breach of the rising trendline would warn of a decline to around $70/barrel.
The Dollar Index retraced to test the new support level at 76.00. Respect would confirm the primary up-trend, while failure would signal trend weakness. A trough above zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum would strengthen the bull signal.
* Target calculation: 80 + ( 80 – 76 ) = 84
Gold broke through $1700/ounce in response to dollar weakness. Expect retracement to test the new support level. Respect would signal a primary advance to 1800*. The long-term (primary) trend remains upward.
* Target calculation: 1700 + ( 1700 – 1600 ) = 1800
The Amex Gold Bugs Index is testing medium-term resistance at 560. Breakout would test the upper border of broadening wedge pattern — around 650 — and support a similar advance for the spot metal.
Brent crude is also stronger, testing its upper trend channel at $110/barrel. Respect would indicate another test of the lower channel — and the ascending long-term trendline — while breakout would signal an advance to $120*.
* Target calculation: 110 + ( 110 – 100 ) = 120
The broader CRB Commodities Index is also headed for its upper trend channel. The ascending primary trendline remains intact but 63-day Twiggs Momentum respect of the zero line (from below) warns of a strong down-trend.
Brent crude is edging lower in a wide trend channel. Respect of the long-term ascending trendline (on the weekly chart) would suggest upward breakout from the channel — and a target of $150/barrel*. Recovery of 63-day Twiggs Momentum above zero would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 125 + ( 125 – 100 ) = 150
The CRB Commodities index is similarly testing its long-term rising trendline at 300. Penetration of the secondary descending trendline would indicate another primary advance on the monthly chart. The 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below zero [R], however, warns of a primary down-trend. Failure of support at 290 would strengthen the signal.
* Target calculation: 370 +( 370 – 290 ) = 450
Brent Crude rallied off support at $99/$100 per barrel, headed for a test of the upper trend channel. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum above its descending trendline warns that the down-trend is weakening. Breakout above the upper channel would test the 2011 high of $125/barrel.
CRB Commodities Index similarly rallied off support at 300. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum is still declining and failure to reach the upper trend channel (on the price chart) would warn of an accelerating down-trend.
