Tag: Brent crude

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Crude breaks support

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Brent crude broke support at $104/barrel and is testing the lower trend channel and long-term rising trendline. Respect would signal a rally to the upper channel border, while breakout below the rising trendline would warn of a sharp fall. 63-Day Momentum below zero suggests the down-trend is strengthening.

Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 115 – 105 ) = 95

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Gold and crude suffer from strong dollar

Spot Gold is testing support at its initial target of $1600/ounce. The long tail is evidence of buying support, but failure would test $1500. The primary trend direction remains up and, despite gold experiencing a strong correction, is unlikely to change.

Spot Gold

* Target calculation: 1750 – ( 1900 – 1750 ) = 1600

Brent crude is testing support at $104/barrel while Nymex WTI crude is at $80/barrel. There is no sign of the divergence between the two grades closing. Both have signaled a primary down-trend, though Brent has yet to confirm with a break of its rising trendline.

Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

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Brent Nymex WTI Crude

Brent crude respected its declining trendline and is likely to re-test support at $104. Failure would warn of a correction to the long-term, rising trendline at 95*.

Brent and Nymex WTI Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 115 – 105 ) = 95

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Crude

The strengthening dollar caused crude prices to soften, with Brent crude headed for another test of support at $104/$105 per barrel. Failure of support would warn of a down-swing to $90, but breakout above the descending trendline is equally likely and would suggest a new primary advance.

Brent Crude Afternoon Markers (2nd nearest future contract)

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

The spread between Brent and Nymex WTI crude narrowed to $20. An increase in supply from Libya or Nigeria would help to lower Brent prices further.

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Crude rising

The Brent Crude rally since mid-August is now testing the descending trendline at $115/barrel. Breakout above this level would warn that the down-trend is ending. Recovery above $120 would signal a fresh primary advance. Rising crude prices are a negative sign for economic recovery, placing a further damper on consumer spending. Reversal below support at $105, however would signal a decline to $90*.

Brent Crude Afternoon Markers

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

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Crude oil divergence continues

The spread between Brent Crude and Nymex WTI Light Crude remains at $24/barrel. Brent is rallying to test the declining trendline, but retreat to medium-term support at $105 is likely. Resolution of the conflict in Libya should take some of the supply pressure off European refineries, easing Brent prices.

Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Light Crude

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

We then have to wait and see what Chairman Ben pulls out of his hat at the September 21st FOMC meeting. Further quantitative easing would cause an upward spike in commodity prices, including crude.

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Brent Crude ignores good news

Brent crude is stubbornly holding above support at $104/$105 per barrel despite the promise of an early resolution to the conflict in Libya. Even WTI Light crude [lime] recovered slightly after improved manufacturing orders in the US. But the primary trend is down and failure of support at $104 would offer a target of $90 per barrel.

Brent Crude and WTI Light Crude Oil

* Target calculation: 105 – ( 120 – 105 ) = 90

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