Brazil: Stockholders cast their vote in upcoming election

In emerging markets, Brazil’s stock market surged after the left-leaning President Dilma Rousseff was forced into a run-off race against Aecio Neves, a centre-right challenger, who only surged in the final week of the campaign. Ms Rousseff is promising to expand Brazil’s social programmes and continue strong state involvement in the economy, while Mr Neves says he will pursue more centrist economic approaches, such as central bank independence, more privatisations and the pursuit of trade deals with Europe and the United States.

Brazil’s benchmark Ibovespa index rose 4.7% to 57,115.

Read more at Stocks lower despite upbeat news « Express & Star.

Default Therapy

Why not let an insolvent debtor default and invite capitalism to do its work?

That’s the process an Austro-Hungarian economist by the name of Joseph Schumpeter used to call “creative destruction”…and it has worked pretty well over the years, believe it or not…….

Consider the divergent fates of two countries that came face-to-face with a financial crisis in 1990. One of these countries is still merely muddling along…20 years later! The other country is flourishing.

That’s because one of these countries, Japan, responded to its crisis by coddling its crippled corporations and by throwing monumental sums of taxpayer dollars at failing financial institutions. The other country, Brazil, responded to its crisis with relatively savage measures. It defaulted on its debts, devalued its currency (more than once) and did not stand in the way of corporate failure. Brazil’s responses were far from perfect, but they were much less imperfect than were Japan’s……

Too bad for Japan. Its economy has muddled along for two decades, while its stock market has produced a loss of 2% per year across that entire 20-year timeframe. By contrast, the Brazilian economy and stock market have both boomed during the last two decades, despite some very serious bumps along the way.

via Default Therapy.

Iron forward market softens – Phat Dragon | Westpac

The iron ore market is beginning to exhibit some signs of modest
unease, with 3mth forwards giving up significant ground while spot
has moved about 5% lower. From an export profitability perspective,
falls in the Australian dollar and Brazilian real have more than
covered the US dollar spot decline. Even so, to Phat Dragon’s eye
a cyclical correction in the ferrous metals sphere appears to be
underway and price expectations should be ratcheting downwards.

Excerpt from Westpac’s Phat Dragon weekly chronicle of the Chinese economy

Bovespa

The Brazilian Bovespa Index encountered strong resistance at 58000, the spike in volume [R] warning of selling pressure. Breach of the rising trendline would warn that the rally is fading and another test of support at 48000 is likely. Failure of support would offer a target of 38000*.

Brazil Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 48 – ( 58 – 48 ) = 38

Bovespa and JSE weaken

The bear rally on the Brazilian Bovespa Index has run out of steam and we can expect another test of support at 48000. 13-Week Twiggs Money Flow below zero signals continued selling pressure. Failure would offer a target of 38000*.

Brazil Bovespa Index

* Target calculation: 48000 – ( 58000 – 48000 ) = 38000

The JSE bear rally respected resistance at 30000. Money Flow is stronger, but reversal below 28000 would offer a target of 26000*.

JSE Overall Index

* Target calculation: 28000 – ( 30000 – 28000 ) = 26000