Time to be defensive

Bob Doll at Nuveen says he does not expect a recession (for the next few quarters) but remains neutral towards stocks:

“Although stock prices have advanced over the last couple of weeks, investors remain focused on downside economic and policy risks and are increasingly concerned about a possible recession. The latest manufacturing readings hurt economic sentiment, while trade issues, turmoil in Hong Kong, the increasing likelihood of a messy, no-deal Brexit and a downturn in European growth are increasing worries.”

The Institute for Supply Management August Report points to an economic slow-down, with the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 49.1 percent, from 51.2 percent in July. The New Orders Index also declined, to 47.2 percent from 50.8 percent in July. Readings below 50 indicate contraction.

“…The 2020 U.S. elections linger in the backdrop, offering potential to produce either a dramatic shift in economic policy should the Democrats retake the White House, or continued policy uncertainty should President Trump win reelection.

Against this backdrop, investors are struggling to position their portfolios. Consensus appears to say that it is time to turn more defensive, but U.S. Treasuries and other government bond yields appear to offer little if any value. Indeed, government bond markets are pricing in a high likelihood of a recession and a prolonged period of sluggish growth. At the same time, equity markets have been range bound over the last several months (and, by some measures, since the start of 2018) and are providing unclear signals.

In our view, the preponderance of the evidence suggests that growth will remain sluggish but a recession will be avoided, at least for the next few quarters. In other words, we think the signals coming from the equity markets are more accurate than those coming from government bond markets. Nevertheless, we continue to have a broadly neutral view toward stocks, and think investors should remain selective, focusing on such themes as companies that offer compelling value and those that have the ability to put relatively high levels of free cash flow to work.”

The wild card is the impact that high levels of uncertainty may have on business investment and employment.

Google Searches for Recession

This is a time to be defensive.

Bonds, traditional dividend-paying blue chips, and growth stocks all appear over-priced at current levels. Small caps are high risk in the current volatile environment and we are focused on large cap stocks with strong cash flows and defensible market position in non-cyclical industries. Some cyclical sectors may present value but investors need to be selective because of vulnerability to a potential down-turn.

Warren Buffett: Bonds and portfolio risk

It is a terrible mistake for investors with long-term horizons – among them, pension funds, college endowments and savings-minded individuals – to measure their investment ‘risk’ by their portfolio’s ratio of bonds to stocks. Often, high-grade bonds in an investment portfolio increase its risk.

~ Warren Buffett, letter to the shareholders of Berkshire Hathaway – February 24, 2018

Pimco Eyes Aussie Bond Boom – WSJ

“We really are in a secular shift for greater demand for fixed income securities in Australia,” John Wilson, the head of the global bond giant’s [Pimco’s] Australia operations told Deal Journal Australia. “That’s why you will see increasing issuance in the domestic market by domestic issuers.”

“We are seeing this notably in our flows in the wealth management business. Private investors are seeking recurring income and capital stability,” he said.

In recent weeks some of Australia’s national champions–such as retailing giant Woolworths and conglomerate Wesfarmers–have issued local currency debt even as some of the country’s other big corporates have skipped local investors and borrowed elsewhere.

via Pimco Eyes Aussie Bond Boom – Deal Journal Australia – WSJ.

Fate of Euro May Hinge on Italian Savers – NYTimes.com

Compared with debt-saddled Greece, Spain and Ireland, Italy is much less reliant on foreign investors to finance its debt. And more so than in any other euro zone country, Italian citizens have been active buyers of government debt, with such bond holdings representing 10 percent of household assets. So far, the evidence suggests that Italian households are not panicking.

via Fate of Euro May Hinge on Italian Savers – NYTimes.com.

RAFI ETF Investing: Q&A With Rob Arnott | ETF Database

When you think about capitalization weighting in stocks the drawbacks are fairly evident. When you talk about cap weighting in bonds, the drawbacks are flagrantly obvious.

With cap weighting, consider that Australia has three times the GDP of Greece, and Greece has three times the debt burden of Australia. Why should we want to own three times as much in Greek debt as Australian debt? In fact, Australia’s ability to service debt is at least three times that of Greece, and so wouldn’t it make more sense to have an index for bonds that weights countries’ bond debt in accordance with GDP and other measures of the economic footprint of a country?

via RAFI ETF Investing: Q&A With Rob Arnott | ETF Database.

Banks to dump more Italian debt | Ticker | IFRe

With the ECB providing a bid for Italian bonds that might not otherwise exist, board members at some of Europe’s largest bank say now is the time to accelerate disposals. Many are also reversing long-standing policies of buying into new Italian bond issues, denying Rome an important base of support.

“Our traditional buying days are no longer,” said one board member at a European bank, one of Italy’s 10 biggest creditors, who added that the bank has also sold off previous bond purchases. “Unless there is more certainty on Italians changing direction, it will be very tough for them to find buyers.”

via Banks to dump more Italian debt | Ticker | IFRe.