Tag: 10-Year Treasury Yield

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Crude Up, Gold Down

Key Points

  • President Trump rejects Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait and discusses an extended US naval blockade.
  • Brent crude futures (June’26) jump to more than $120 per barrel.
  • The Fed kept interest rates on hold in Jerome Powell’s last FOMC meeting as Fed Chair.
  • Powell says he will stay on as governor for “an undetermined period of time.”

During a Tuesday meeting with oil executives, President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal to reopen the Strait and discussed extending the US naval blockade. (GroundNews)

WASHINGTON, April 29 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump met with top officials from Chevron (CVX.N) and other energy companies on Tuesday to talk about possible steps to calm oil markets if the blockade of Iranian ports continues for months, a White House official said on Wednesday.

The talks focused on U.S. oil production, oil futures, ​shipping and natural gas, the official said.

“They discussed the steps President Trump has taken to alleviate global oil markets ​and steps we could take to continue the current blockade for months if needed and minimize ⁠impact on American consumers,” the White House official said.

Talk of an extended blockade and a sharp fall in US inventories drove June’26 Brent crude futures to above $120 per barrel.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE June'26)

The EIA report for the week ended April 26 showed an accelerating decline in crude inventories, including the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

EIA Crude Inventory (incl. SPR)

The inventory chart above includes the SPR, shown separately below.

EIA Crude Inventory (incl. SPR)

No Change at the Fed

The Fed left its target range for the funds rate unchanged at 3.5%-3.75% for the third consecutive meeting. There were four dissenting votes on the FOMC, with three opposing language that signaled possible future rate cuts, while Trump appointee Stephen Miran called for an immediate reduction. (AP/EuroNews)

Jerome Powell’s term as Chair ends on May 15, with his nominated successor, Kevin Warsh, likely to be sworn in before the next meeting, following approval by the Senate Banking Committee.

Powell indicated that he intends to remain on the Federal Reserve’s governing board for “an undetermined period of time”, citing concerns about what he described as “unprecedented” legal attacks by the Trump administration on the central bank.

Mr Powell said he would wait for the conclusion of an investigation into the Fed’s building renovations before stepping down fully.

“I’m waiting for the investigation to be well and truly over, with finality and transparency,” he said. “I will leave when I think it appropriate to do so.” His term as governor expires in January 2028.

Powell’s decision to stay on forces the resignation of Stephen Miran, a temporary Trump appointee, to make way for the appointment of Warsh as governor. The move denies President Trump the opportunity to nominate a replacement, which would give him greater influence over Fed monetary policy.

Long-term Treasury yields are rising in response to higher oil prices and the improved prospect of an independent Fed. 10-Year yields are expected to test resistance at 4.5%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

We expect the S&P 500 to retrace to test new support at 7000 as a looming global oil shortage overshadows robust quarterly earnings.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated below short-term support at 49K, suggesting another correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

Gold found support at $4,500 per ounce, but the rally may be short-lived if oil prices keep rising.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

An early reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely. We expect a prolonged closure, with shortages driving crude oil prices to between $140 and $150 per barrel by the end of May.

Higher crude prices increase upward pressure on long-term Treasury yields, which would be bearish for stocks.

We also expect Gold to test support at $4,000 per ounce as Gulf states and major oil importers draw on their reserves.

Acknowledgments

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The S&P 500 and the Strait of Hormuz

Key Points

  • Brent crude June ’26 futures are testing resistance at $110 per barrel.
  • The S&P 500 indicates a bull market.
  • However, the S&P 1500 Containers & Packaging Index ($X3BF) threatens a primary downtrend.
  • The bond market is growing restless as the risk of fiscal dominance grows.

Brent crude (June’26) futures are testing resistance at $110 per barrel, having climbed more than 20 percent from $90 per barrel on April 17. Peace talks, or rather talks about peace talks, have reached an impasse, triggering a sharp rise in crude prices as global markets face the prospect of lengthy supply shortages.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE June'26)

Both the US and Iran believe they have the upper hand, and it will take time to force either party to capitulate. The effectiveness of the US blockade of Iranian ports will depend on the US Navy’s ability to interdict the estimated 160 million barrels of crude in tankers outside the Persian Gulf that Iran had built up ahead of the blockade.

Physical shortages have so far been limited to Asian markets, with China absorbing most of the shortfall by drawing on its large reserves, estimated at 1.2-1.3 billion barrels. However, some Asian refiners have been forced to cut production runs due to shortages.

Shortages in Europe have largely been met by increased purchases from the US, which is drawing from its roughly 400 million barrels in strategic petroleum reserves (SPR).

Some rough arithmetic tells us that physical shortages will start to bite at the end of May, three months after the outbreak of the conflict:

  • One month of crude shipments already on the water at the end of February.
  • One month (400 million barrels) of IEA coordinated releases from reserves, excluding China.
  • Another month (400 million barrels) of estimated drawdown from reserves by China before they reenter the market to replenish stockpiles at higher prices.

A resumption of Chinese purchases would drive crude prices towards $200 per barrel.

We expect GDP to contract in line with energy shortages, and a global crude oil shortfall of roughly 12 million barrels per day will likely trigger a global recession.

Further releases from reserves are possible, but they will likely be far smaller and done in conjunction with IEA-coordinated measures to reduce consumption. Lower speed limits and petrol rationing are the obvious starting point. However, diesel shortages will directly affect mining, agriculture, and long-haul transport. Jet fuel prices are also skyrocketing, forcing the aviation industry to raise prices and cut flights.

Secondary impacts from supply chain disruptions due to shortages of helium, sulfur, and fertilizers are expected to pose further challenges for the global economy. Helium is essential in the production of semiconductors. Sulfur is used extensively by the mining industry for refining copper, gold, and silver. Fertilizer shortages will restrict agricultural production, especially in emerging markets.

Conflict in the Persian Gulf has had little impact on the S&P 500 so far, but the Dow Jones Transportation Average plunged more than 13 percent last week.

Dow Jones Transportation Average

The S&P 500 continues to signal a bull market, with a breakout above 7000, driven by strong first-quarter earnings. We expect the index to retrace to test its new support level.

S&P 500

However, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has yet to break resistance at 50K to confirm the S&P 500 bull signal. A reversal below 49K would suggest another correction.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

AI-driven spending is keeping the economy afloat, but the S&P 1500 Containers & Packaging Index ($X3BF) indicates that activity on Main Street is slowing. A fall below primary support at 285 would signal a primary downtrend.

S&P 1500 Containers & Packaging Index

10-Year Treasury yields strengthened to above 4.3%, fueled by rising inflation expectations and widening fiscal deficits.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The budget deficit is inordinately high relative to the low unemployment rate of 4.3% and is expected to rise further as the US government increases defense spending and onshores critical supply chains. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, the deficit as a percentage of GDP was typically kept below the unemployment rate, a sign of prudent fiscal management.

Federal Deficit & Unemployment Rate

However, Congress demonstrates little inclination to rein in spending. The bipartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns that federal debt held by the public will soon exceed its World War II high relative to GDP.

CBO Projections of Debt Held by the Public as a Percentage of GDP

The likely outcome is fiscal dominance, where the Fed sacrifices its mandate for price stability to support a struggling Treasury market. High inflation and negative real interest rates seem inevitable.

Conclusion

We expect crude oil shortages to start restricting economic activity from the end of May. Further releases from reserves may delay an economic slowdown for a few more months, but the outcome is irreversible. Even a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz after the end of May would take time to offset the supply shortage and would be unlikely to avert a recession.

The S&P 500 signals a bull market, but investors should be cautious about treating this as a buy signal. A bear signal in transportation and containers & packaging would strengthen the bull trap warning.

Rising inflation and ballooning fiscal debt, with negative real interest rates, seem inevitable.

Acknowledgments

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Rising Crude is Bearish for Gold

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures (June’26) rose to $103.68 per barrel.
  • The S&P 500 reached a new high. However, the bull signal has not been confirmed by the Dow and the S&P 1500 Transportation Index.
  • The Fed has injected $170 billion of liquidity into financial markets since December 2025.
  • 10-year Treasury yields found support at 4.25%, while gold is headed for another test of support at $4,500 per ounce.

Brent crude futures (June’26) broke resistance at $100 per barrel and are now testing $104.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE June'26)
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First Wave of Gulf War Hits CPI

Key Points

  • CPI jumped by almost 0.9% in March, fueled by a steep rise in crude oil prices.
  • A 21.2% jump in gasoline prices accounted for nearly three quarters of the monthly ​CPI increase.
  • We expect further waves as rising costs reach agriculture, mining, and transportation before filtering through to the broader economy.
  • The S&P 500 stalled at 6800.
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment plunged to its lowest level since the late 1970s.

The first wave of price hikes hit CPI in March, with the index jumping 0.865%, fueled by a steep rise in crude oil prices driven by the war in the Persian Gulf.
CPI & Core CPI - Monthly

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Ceasefire Falls Apart

Key Points

  • Israel stepped up airstrikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon.
  • Iran’s lead negotiator says a bilateral ceasefire is unreasonable in such a situation.
  • Iran attacked Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, just hours after the ceasefire ‌was agreed.
  • The United Arab Emirates carried out air strikes on Iranian production and refining facilities. Iran retaliates with a barrage of missiles and drones.
  • Ukraine defies calls to stop striking Russian energy facilities.
  • Brent crude bids for spot delivery at $144 per barrel, but no sellers.
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Ceasefire But No Long-term Peace in Sight

Key Points

  • President Trump announced he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi confirmed that Iran will allow safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for two weeks.
  • Brent crude futures (Jun’26) plunged to $93.86 per barrel.
  • Gold climbed to $4,800 per ounce as the Dollar weakened.

President Trump has agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.

Truth Social Post

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Jobs Rise but Prices Soar, Growth Slows and Liquidity Tightens

Key Points

  • Non-farm employment jumped by 178,000 in March, well above the expected 60,000.
  • The unemployment rate declined to 4.3%.
  • Growth in aggregate hours worked, however, slowed to 0.4% over the past year.
  • The ISM Manufacturing Prices index jumped to 78.3%, warning of a price shock.
  • Aluminium prices soared to nearly $3,600/tonne due to supply shortages caused by the war in the Persian Gulf.
  • Brent crude closed the week at $109 per barrel, with no end to the Iran war in sight.

The BLS reported a 178,000 increase in non-farm payroll in March, well above the 60,000 forecast. Employment growth has been erratic, averaging less than 15,000 over the past 6 months.

Employment Growth

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No Quick Exit

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures (May’26) rose after President Trump paused his threatened attack on Iran’s energy facilities until April 6.
  • The S&P 500 broke primary support at 6550.
  • The Dollar strengthens with the prospect of higher interest rates.
  • Gold tests primary support at $4,400 per ounce.

Brent crude rallied to $109 per barrel on news that negotiations may take longer than initially indicated. Retracement will likely respect support at $105 per barrel, signaling another test of $114.

Brent Crude Futures (ICE May'26)

Markets continue to receive conflicting messages on the war with Iran.

President Trump said he would extend a pause to attack Iran’s energy facilities to April 6, a little over a week after the original deadline that was set to end Friday.

“As per Iranian Government request, please let this statement serve to represent that I am pausing the period of Energy Plant destruction,” Trump said in a Truth Social post. “Talks are ongoing and, despite erroneous statements to the contrary by the Fake News Media, and others, they are going very well. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” (CNBC)

Iran’s Foreign Minister ruled out direct talks with the US but says they are reviewing the US 15-point proposal submitted through Pakistani intermediaries.

House Speaker Mike Johnson said Wednesday that Operation Epic Fury is “almost done” and is “wrapping up.”

….Johnson said that the objectives of the operation “have been met,” but access to the Strait of Hormuz still needs to be “straightened out.” (CBS)

The military buildup continues:

WASHINGTON, March 24 (Reuters) – The Pentagon is expected to send ​thousands of soldiers from the U.S. Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, two people familiar with the ‌matter told Reuters on Tuesday, adding to a massive U.S. military buildup even as President Donald Trump talks about a possible deal with Tehran to end the war.

The New York Post:

The Pentagon is reportedly considering a plan to send an additional 10,000 troops to the Middle East amid the war with Iran.

The potential deployment would likely include infantry and armored vehicles and would be on top of the 5,000 Marines and sailors and roughly 2,000 members of the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division who have already been dispatched to the region, according to the Wall Street Journal.

When one party threatens the other, it is normally a sign that the negotiation is not going well:

President Trump is ready to “unleash hell” on Iran if Tehran does not accept a deal to end the war in the Middle East, the White House warned on Wednesday.

“If Iran fails to accept the reality of the current moment, if they fail to understand that they have been defeated militarily and will continue to be, President Trump will ensure they are hit harder than they have ever been hit before,” Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a briefing.

“President Trump does not bluff and he is prepared to unleash hell.” (CBS)

Iran and Israel seem to have longer-term objectives, but President Trump is desperate for an off-ramp. Opinion polls show the war is unpopular in the US:

Reuters/Ipsos Opinion Poll

The Iranians know that the closer it gets to the US midterms in November, the greater their leverage.

Trump has few good options: escalate the conflict or settle on a potentially bad deal with a weakened yet defiant Iran that has choked off much of the world’s oil supply….

A clear and quick victory could pay dividends for Trump politically. But a settlement that credibly contains Iran appears to be far off….

The terms required to wind the war down may involve concessions to Tehran that do not satisfy Israel, which appears to want to press ahead. (Reuters)

Copper continues its downtrend, warning that the global economy is slowing.

Copper

Mega-cap technology stocks are dragging the major indices lower. The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) signals a strong bear trend after breaking primary support at 63 in early February.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

The S&P 500 has now followed with a breach of primary support at 6550, confirmed by the recent dead cat bounce.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing the primary support band between 45,500 and 46,000. A breach would confirm the S&P 500 bear market signal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index ($IQX) shows that large caps are now outperforming mega caps, which had led the market for several years. It’s all relative, however. Declining Trend Index peaks below zero warn of selling pressure.

S&P 500 Equal-Weighted Index

Bitcoin1 continues to test the support band between 64,000 and 70,000, indicating that financial markets have become risk-averse.

Bitcoin (BTC)

10-year Treasury yields respected support at 4.3%, offering a short-term target of 4.65% as the prospect of further rate cuts fades.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The US Dollar Index is testing resistance at 100, driven by the prospect of higher interest rates.

Dollar Index

Gold is testing primary support at $4,400 per ounce. Respect, indicated by recovery above $4,600, would indicate another test of $5,000, while a breach would offer a target of $4,000.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

Mixed messaging over negotiations with Iran indicates that progress is slow. Conflicting objectives between the US and Israel may also prevent a quick resolution to the war against Iran. A quick exit is unlikely.

A downtrend in copper prices warns that the global economy is slowing.

The S&P 500 broke support at 6550, signaling a primary downtrend. A Dow Jones Industrial Average breach of primary support at 45,500 would confirm a bear market.

The prospect of higher interest rates, with the market pricing out further rate cuts, has strengthened the Dollar, triggering a selloff in gold. A breach of primary support at $4,400 per ounce would offer a target of $4,000, while respect of support would signal another test of $5,000.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
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S&P 500 Bear Market Warning

Key Points

  • Brent crude futures (May’26) rose to $112 per barrel.
  • 10-year Treasury yields jumped to 4.39%.
  • The S&P 500 broke primary support at 6550.

The war in Iran is in danger of escalating, sending the global economy into recession.

WASHINGTON, March 18 (Reuters) – President Donald Trump’s administration is considering deploying thousands of U.S. troops to reinforce its operation in the Middle East, as the U.S. military prepares for possible next steps in its campaign against ​Iran, said a U.S. official and three people familiar with the matter.

The deployments could help provide Trump with additional options as he weighs expanding U.S. operations, with the Iran war well into ‌its third week.

Those options include securing safe passage for oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, a mission that would be accomplished primarily through air and naval forces, the sources said. But securing the Strait could also mean deploying U.S. troops to Iran’s shoreline, said four sources, including two U.S. officials.

Reuters granted the sources anonymity to speak about military planning.

The Trump administration has also discussed options to send ground forces to Iran’s Kharg Island, the hub for 90% of Iran’s oil exports, the three people familiar with the matter and three U.S. ​officials said. One of the officials said such an operation would be very risky. Iran has the ability to reach the island with missiles and drones.

News of preparations for a ground war spooked financial markets.

CBS News said “heavy preparations” were being made for sending ground troops to Iran, citing multiple sources….

“If this is an escalation involving troops on the ground, then we’re probably in for at least a couple more weeks of this sort of market of higher oil prices, high gas prices; you’re hanging on every headline about energy infrastructure in the region,” Baird investment strategist Ross Mayfield said to CNBC. “Quite frankly, equity markets haven’t sold off in a way that would reflect this sort of event yet, so there could still be some some downside ahead.” (CNBC)

Brent crude futures (ICE May’26) climbed above $112 per barrel by the close of the week.

Brent Crude

Ten-year Treasury yields spiked up 4.39%. The breakout above the 4.3% resistance level indicates another test of the 2023 high at 5.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

The S&P 500 broke primary support at 6550, warning of a bear market.

S&P 500

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is testing primary support at 45,500. A breach of the support level would confirm the S&P 500 bear market signal.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

The Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS) has already broken support at 60, confirming a primary downtrend in the seven mega-cap technology stocks that led the bull market advance.

Roundhill Magnificent 7 ETF (MAGS)

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index jumped to -0.486, the uptick above its preceding peak warning of a contraction in financial market liquidity.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

The downtrend in Bitcoin1 has warned of a financial market contraction since late last year.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Conclusion

Prepare for a bear market. The Dow will likely break support at 45,500 next week, confirming the S&P 500 bear signal.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
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Supreme Court Setback for Trump

Key Points

  • In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 doesn’t authorize President Donald Trump to impose tariffs.
  • The Yale Budget Lab estimated that households’ average cost burden would fall by about half in 2026, to between $600 and $800, if the Supreme Court ruled against the tariffs.
  • However, Trump administration officials previously said they would use different legal pathways to achieve an outcome similar to the IEEPA tariffs.
  • President Trump signed a proclamation Friday night that will impose a 10% duty on most imports for up to 150 days, as permitted under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974.
  • Businesses may be able to claim refunds for IEEPA tariffs paid, but are unlikely to pass these on to consumers.

Last year, President Trump used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 (IEEPA) to impose tariffs on US trading partners.

He declared a national emergency, saying an influx of illegal drugs from Canada, Mexico, and China had created a public health crisis, and that large and persistent trade deficits had undermined US manufacturing. His administration used IEEPA to levy tariffs on imports to manage the perceived crises: a 10% baseline tariff on all US trading partners and higher duties on Canada, Mexico, and China.

Chief Justice John Roberts

Chief Justice John Roberts

In a 6-3 decision, the Supreme Court ruled on Friday that the IEEPA doesn’t authorize the president to impose tariffs.

“The Government reads IEEPA to give the President power to unilaterally impose unbounded tariffs and change them at will,” according to the court.

“That view would represent a transformative expansion of the President’s authority over tariff policy,” their opinion argued. “It is also telling that in IEEPA’s half-century of existence, no President has invoked the statute to impose any tariffs, let alone tariffs of this magnitude and scope.”

The Yale Budget Lab estimated that households’ average cost burden would fall by about half in 2026, to between $600 and $800, if the IEEPA tariffs were overturned.

Before the ruling, Trump administration officials had said they would use different legal pathways, if overruled, to achieve roughly the same outcome as the tariffs. (CNBC)

President Trump signed a proclamation Friday night that will impose 10% tariffs on most imports to the United States, to replace the 10% IEEPA baseline tariff rate overturned by the earlier Supreme Court ruling.

The new tariffs take effect Monday and are levied under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows the president to impose duties of up to 15% for 150 days to address “large and serious” balance-of-payments issues. (CBS News)

Businesses will likely claim refunds for the estimated $175 billion in IEEPA tariffs paid to date, but consumers will not receive any direct benefit. (Reuters)

Treasury Markets

10-year Treasury yields increased on news of the Supreme Court ruling, but remain close to primary support at 4.0%.

10-Year Treasury Yield

Stocks

The S&P 500 rallied on the prospect of reduced tariffs, but will likely reverse on news of Trump’s Friday night proclamation.

S&P 500

Financial Markets

The Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index reached -0.568 on February 13, signaling loose monetary conditions.

Chicago Fed National Financial Conditions Index

However, Bitcoin1 (BTC) remains below 70,000, indicating that financial markets are shedding risk assets.

Bitcoin (BTC)

Inflation

The Fed’s favored measure of underlying inflation, the core PCE index, jumped by 0.355% in December 2025, warning of an upsurge in price pressures.

Core PCE Inflation - Monthly

Annual growth in the core PCE inflation index lifted to 3.0%, and the headline PCE index increased to 2.9%.

PCE & Core PCE

The University of Michigan (UOM) survey of consumers reported a median expected price increase of 3.4% over the next year, with the 3-month average declining to 3.9%.

University of Michigan: 1-Year Inflation Expectations

Consumers

Consumer sentiment from the February UOM survey remains near record lows since the survey commenced in 1960.

University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment

Participants’ assessment of current economic conditions is also near the lowest ebb in more than 60 years.

University of Michigan: Current Economic Conditions

Economy

Real GDP growth slowed to 0.35% in the fourth quarter, or 1.4% annualized, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Aggregate weekly hours worked grew at a slower 1.0% over the 12 months to January 2026, suggesting that GDP growth will likely slow further.

Real GDP & Growth in Total Hours Worked

Dollar & Gold

The US Dollar Index met resistance at 98 after news of the Supreme Court ruling, and we expect the downtrend to continue.

Dollar Index

Gold rallied to above $5,100 per ounce, signaling another test of resistance at $5,500.

Spot Gold

Conclusion

The Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariffs checks his expansive use of emergency powers in pursuit of his economic agenda. The ruling also increases the economic uncertainty that has bedeviled Trump’s economic policy, making it difficult for corporations to make long-term investment decisions.

Declining real GDP growth in the fourth quarter highlights that the US economy is heavily reliant on massive capital investment in AI data centers to keep the country out of a recession, while the broader economy shudders from one mishap to the next.

Consumer sentiment and perceptions of current economic conditions are near sixty-year lows, again reflecting the narrow economic recovery, which has failed to benefit most Americans despite low unemployment. Republicans are going to find it difficult to hold a majority in Congress after the November midterm elections, delivering a further setback to Trump’s economic agenda.

The Supreme Court decision, led by conservative Chief Justice John Roberts, is a sign that conservatives will increasingly resist Trump’s disregard for the checks and balances built into the Constitution. We have likely passed “peak Trump” on the economic front, though he will likely try to stay in the spotlight with his geopolitical agenda.

We maintain our overweight position in gold and defensive stocks with stable cash flows, while avoiding high-multiple technology stocks and long-term financial instruments.

Acknowledgments

Notes

  1. Cryptocurrencies are the highest-risk asset class, and we analyze Bitcoin (BTC) solely to identify risk sentiment in financial markets. Our analysis is not a recommendation to buy or sell BTC, nor is it a commentary on the merits of cryptocurrency.
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