Druckenmiller Sees Storm Worse Than ’08 | Bloomberg

Stan Druckenmiller, George Soros’ former partner and one of the best-performing hedge fund managers of the past three decades, warns of the real long-term threat to the US economy:

Druckenmiller, 59, said the mushrooming costs of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid, with unfunded liabilities as high as $211 trillion, will bankrupt the nation’s youth and pose a much greater danger than the country’s $16 trillion of debt currently being debated in Congress…… unsustainable spending will eventually result in a crisis worse than the financial meltdown of 2008…

Read more at Druckenmiller Sees Storm Worse Than ’08 as Seniors Steal – Bloomberg.

Household Debt to Income ratio

Barry Ritholz highlights the alarming debt to income ratio for Canada compared to the USA:
Household Debt to Income ratio

How does Australia compare?
Australian Household Debt to Income ratio
Australian household debt to income is similar to Canada’s. There has been discussion recently about whether Australia is in a housing bubble. As Anna Schwartz (joint author of A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 with Milton Friedman) pointed out: there is only one kind of bubble and that is a debt bubble. It may manifest through rising real estate, stock or other asset prices, but the underlying driver is the same: a rapid expansion of the money supply through easy credit.

Claiming the $1 trillion prize in US health care | McKinsey & Company

Even within a single local market, we have found that the cost to deliver the same “episodes of care” [medical situations characterized by a relatively clear outcome and relatively predictable start and end points (for example, most hospitalizations, pregnancies, upper respiratory infections, and hip replacements)] typically varies by 30 percent to well over 100 percent, even after we held constant the prices that hospitals, physicians, and other providers charge and risk-adjusted the costs to reflect patients’ health status. The cost differences were unrelated to any discernible variation in care quality or outcomes. These results make it clear that some providers are dramatically more successful than others in addressing patients’ needs. The strong providers achieve good results not by cutting corners but by developing (or adopting) best practices that enable them to deliver high-quality outcomes at lower cost.

Read more at Claiming the $1 trillion prize in US health care | McKinsey & Company.

Here’s A Disturbingly Astute Line From When S&P Downgraded The US Credit Rating | Business Insider Australia

From S&P’s historic downgrade of the US credit rating on August 5, 2011:

More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking and political institutions have weakened at a time of ongoing fiscal and economic challenges to a degree more than we envisioned when we assigned a negative outlook to the rating on April 18, 2011.

Read more at Here's A Disturbingly Astute Line From When S&P Downgraded The US Credit Rating | Business Insider Australia.

Pro-nuclear greenies? Thinking outside the box with Pandora’s Promise

Ben Heard and Prof. Corey Bradshaw highlight the environmental and economic damage caused by pursuit of nuclear-free power.

Had Australia deployed a modest nuclear program starting in 1965, to build slowly to around 20% of electricity provided (as done in the USA), over 876 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2-e) would have been avoided to this day.

…..In the OECD, three yes, only three countries have achieved success in all but eliminating fossil fuels from electricity supply. They are France, Sweden and Switzerland Finland will soon join them. All did it by embracing nuclear power generation. These nations deliver reliable, large-scale electricity supply with less than 1/10th the emissions of Australia. France in particular delivers the cheapest electricity in Western Europe, and is the second-highest net exporter of electricity in the world…..

Read more at Pro-nuclear greenies? Thinking outside the box with Pandora's Promise.

China recovery

China’s Shanghai Composite Index is testing support at 2150 and the lower trend channel. Recovery above the descending trendline would suggest another rally, while failure of support would warn of a correction to primary support at 1950. The index hints at long-term recovery but further confirmation is necessary.
Shanghai Composite Index

The Harper Petersen Index, from ship brokers Harper Petersen & Co., indicates that shipping rates for container vessels remain depressed, suggesting a sluggish global trade in manufactured goods. Exporters like China would be severely affected.

Harper Petersen Index

The Baltic Dry Index — reflecting dry bulk shipping rates for commodities like iron ore and coal — jumped sharply, however, reflecting an upturn in demand for bulk commodities.
Baltic Dry Index

Bulk commodity prices remain depressed according to the RBA.
RBA Bulk Commodity Prices
But export volumes are rising, in step with the Baltic Dry Index, reflecting strong demand from infrastructure development.
RBA Bulk Commodity Exports

WSJ reports that monthly electricity consumption has reached a new high:

China on Tuesday posted an all-time record-high electricity output level of 498.7 billion kilowatt-hours in August, rising 13% from a year earlier.

Monthly fluctuations should largely be ignored because of weather variation — excessively hot months like August can boost electricity demand — but the rising long-term trend in electricity consumption (chart from IndexMundi) suggests a robust recovery. A recovery led primarily by infrastructure investment rather than manufactured exports may well prove unsustainable in the long-term, but should provide welcome relief to the resources sector in the next few years.
Electricity Consumption

Bellwether Fedex suggests improving economy

Bellwether transport stock Fedex displays a healthy primary up-trend on the monthly chart, suggesting that economic activity is improving. Bearish divergence on 13-week Twiggs Money Flow warns of selling pressure at the 2007 high of $120; reversal below zero would indicate a reversal, while a trough above the zero line would signal a primary up-trend. Breakout above $120 would offer a target of $130*.

Fedex

* Target calculation: 120 + ( 120 – 110 ) = 130

Saving Medicare: The Case for Market-Based Health Reform

In a paper to Catholic Health Conference Australia, Jeremy Sammut highlights the need for revision of Australia’s national health care system.

….health spending already consumes a third of the NSW budget….. and if health spending continues to grow at current rates, health will consume the entire NSW budget in 20 years time.

Providing free services encourages over-use and, with limited budgets, restricts access to essential services for the most needy. Sammut suggests a shift to self-funding for minor expenditure, with state assistance for chronic or catastrophic needs.

As the increasingly unaffordable United States private health system demonstrates, it is impossible to insure people for all health services without over-use causing a cost and premium spiral. In a private system, moral hazard creates un-affordability; in a free public insurance system like Medicare it causes arbitrary and unethical rationing.

Public and private health systems are both plagued by the problem of ‘first dollar insurance’ – the expectation among consumers that private or public insurance should entitle them to receive treatment entirely paid for by a third-party payer no matter how small the cost or condition.

By contrast, a soundly constructed insurance system should not insure people for all services. Instead, individuals should be required to self insure for minor health needs and expenses. Third party insurance should be reserved to enable people to share exceptional risk involving major health problems, and thus should only cover a minimum package of high-cost treatments for complex chronic and catastrophic conditions. And personal responsibility, consumer sovereignty, and price signals should also feature by using front-end deductibles and copayments to control costs and deter unnecessary use of marginal and discretionary services and trivial claims.

What we also need is for public and private hospitals to compete on an equal footing for the taxpayer’s health care dollar. This system has been successfully implemented in the Lombardy region of Italy, with excellent results. Margherita Stancati at WSJ online reports:

Lombardy, by contrast, has increased its quality standards, set its own reimbursement rates and, most important, put public and private hospitals on an equal footing by making each equally eligible for public funds. If a hospital meets the quality standards and charges the accepted reimbursement rate, it qualifies. Patients are free to choose between state-run and publicly funded private hospitals at no extra cost. Their co-pay is the same in either case. As a result, public and many private hospitals in Lombardy compete directly for patients and funds.

…..Around 30% of hospital care in Lombardy is private now — more than anywhere else in Italy. And service in both the private and public sector has improved.

Read Jeremy Sammut’s presentation at Saving Medicare: The Case for Market-Based Health Reform | Jeremy Sammut.