A radical redistribution of income undermined US entrepreneurship | Bill Mitchell – billy blog

All components of private debt grew significantly in the decade leading up to the financial crisis which consumer debt leading the way. The household sector, in particular, already squeezed for liquidity by the move to build increasing federal surpluses during the Clinton era, were enticed by lower interest rates and the vehement marketing strategies of the financial engineers to borrow increasing amounts…..While this strategy sustained consumption growth for a time it was unsustainable because it relied on the private sector becoming increasingly indebted. ……With growth being maintained by increasing credit the balance sheets of private households and firms became increasingly precarious and it was only a matter of time before households and firms realized they had to restore some semblance of security by resuming saving.

via A radical redistribution of income undermined US entrepreneurship | Bill Mitchell – billy blog.

Commodities drag Aussie and Canadian dollar lower

Commodities are weakening and dragging the Aussie and Loonie lower. The Aussie dollar shows a similar iceberg pattern on 63-day Twiggs Momentum, warning of a primary down-trend. Breakout below primary support at $0.94 would offer a long-term target of $0.80*.

AUDUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.08 – 0.94 ) = 0.80

Canada’s Loonie is also headed for a test of $0.94 against the greenback. The peak below zero on 63-day Twiggs Momentum indicates a strong down-trend. Failure of primary support (0.94) would offer a target of $0.87*.

CADUSD

* Target calculation: 0.94 – ( 1.01 – 0.94 ) = 0.87

S&P 500 continues to mimic early 2008

Looking at the S&P 500 weekly chart, it continues to follow the same pattern as in early 2008. There is a similar false recovery above medium-term resistance at 1200 (compared to 1400 in 2008) followed by reversal below the new support level. Also, a similar 63-day Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line warns of a strong primary down-trend.

S&P 500 Index Weekly Chart

* Target calculation: 1100 – ( 1300 – 1100 ) = 900

ICI – Trends in Mutual Fund Investing, September 2011

The combined assets of the nation’s mutual funds decreased by $582.3 billion, or 5.0 percent, to $11.040 trillion in September, according to the Investment Company Institute’s official survey of the mutual fund industry.

via ICI – Trends in Mutual Fund Investing, September 2011.

The fall in Stock Funds was far greater, at 9.5%, compared to only 1.3% in Taxable Bond Funds and 0.1% in Taxable Money Market Funds.

Menzie Chinn » “Solving America’s Debt Crisis”

In principle, solving the nation’s debt problems is easy. Almost all experts agree that a combination of reduced spending and increased tax revenues is needed. Cuts in spending and increases in tax revenues equal to about 5 percent of GDP are required to prevent an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. If a constant debt-to-GDP ratio were achieved with spending cuts alone, annual non-interest government spending would have to be reduced by about 20 percent. Alternatively, if a constant debt-to-GDP ratio were achieved by relying solely on increased tax revenues, taxes would have to be raised by about 33 percent. It is impossible to imagine that Congress would ever adopt spending cuts or tax increases of these magnitudes.

The logical conclusion is that only a balanced approach to solving our debt crisis, one that includes both spending cuts and increased taxes, is feasible. That being said, neither spending cuts nor tax increases will be politically easy to enact.

via EconoMonitor : EconoMonitor » “Solving America’s Debt Crisis”.

Consumers May Be Spending More, but They’re Not Happy About It – Real Time Economics – WSJ

The percentage of Americans saying they were cutting back on their spending rose from 66% at the start of the year to 72% in September, where it has stayed for nine straight weeks. Spending, however, was up 5% in September from a year ago…..[it could be] that, more than two years into an anemic economic recovery, Americans are simply settling into a new routine, somewhere in between the forced austerity of the recession and the heady days that came before. Asked by Gallup whether they are watching their spending “very closely,” 88% of Americans said yes. That figure has hardly moved in two years.

via Consumers May Be Spending More, but They’re Not Happy About It – Real Time Economics – WSJ.

Bond markets v. the Deficit Supercommittee – Evan Newmark

The bond markets will have their say. They have voted in Europe — electing new governments in Greece, Italy and Spain — and the time is fast approaching when they will cast their vote in the US as well.

[gigya src=”http://s.wsj.net/media/swf/VideoPlayerMain.swf” flashVars=”videoGUID={17248341-D867-46A5-B39F-697856205D59}&playerid=1000&plyMediaEnabled=1&configURL=http://wsj.vo.llnwd.net/o28/players/&autoStart=false” width=”512″ height=”363″]

TSX 60 warns of another decline

Canada’s TSX 60 index broke medium-term support — at 680 on the weekly chart below. Respect of the descending trendline suggests another decline. Failure of primary support at 650 would confirm. 63-Day Twiggs Momentum deep below zero also indicates a strong primary down-trend. A conservative target for the decline would be 580*.

TSX 60 Index

* Target calculation: 650 − ( 720 − 650 ) = 580