Europe’s Last Best Chance – Michael Boskin – Project Syndicate

Reforming social-welfare benefits is the only permanent solution to Europe’s crisis. One hopes that, with the help of national governments, the European Central Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the European Financial Stability Facility, the holes in the sovereign-debt-funding dike will be temporarily plugged, and that European banks will be recapitalized. But this will work only if structural reforms make these economies far more competitive. They must both lower the tax burden and reduce bloated transfer payments. Too many people are collecting benefits relative to those working and paying taxes.

via Europe’s Last Best Chance – Michael Boskin – Project Syndicate.

NY Fed Issues Mea Culpa That Nobody Saw at 6PM on Black Friday | ZeroHedge

The 3 big reasons the Fed had gotten it wrong:

  1. Misunderstanding of the housing boom. Staff analysis of the increase in house prices did not find convincing evidence of overvaluation (see, for example, McCarthy and Peach [2004] and Himmelberg, Mayer, and Sinai [2005]). Thus, we downplayed the risk of a substantial fall in house prices. A robust approach would have put the bar much lower than convincing evidence.
  2. A lack of analysis of the rapid growth of new forms of mortgage finance. Here the reliance on the assumption of efficient markets appears to have dulled our awareness of many of the risks building in financial markets in 2005-07. However, a March 2008 New York Fed staff report by Ashcraft and Schuermann provided a detailed analysis of how incentives were misaligned throughout the securitization process of subprime mortgages–meaning that the market was not functioning efficiently.
  3. Insufficient weight given to the powerful adverse feedback loops between the financial system and the real economy. Despite a good understanding of the risk of a financial crisis from mid-2007 onward, we were unable to fully connect the dots to real activity until 2008. Eventually, by building on the insights of Adrian and Shin (2008), we gained a better grasp of the power of these feedback loops.

[The author of the NY Fed report] then added that perhaps the biggest reason for the failure was “complacency,” with which I heartily concur, but to which I would also add hubris and stupidity.

via NY Fed Issues Mea Culpa That Nobody Saw at 6PM on Black Friday | ZeroHedge.

Fiscal union is the only real solution | Credit Writedowns

A fiscal union led by Germany would in effect force debtor nations who want more German and ECB support to surrender more of their fiscal sovereignty, in a binding way, to EU Commissioners, who would have greater authority in shaping national budgets and fiscal policies.

Rather than ECB bond buying or a common bond issuance being a solution to the problems, those activities are only possible once the solution is in place. Needless to say monetary union was a significant surrender of monetary sovereignty. However, by retaining fiscal sovereignty, countries found an escape hatch. A move to fiscal union is to close this loophole.

via Fiscal union is the only real solution | Credit Writedowns.

Euro Pressures Mount–Necessary for Eventual Resolution | Credit Writedowns

Germany is using this crisis to tighten its hegemony in Europe. It needs to close the fiscal loopholes. Many have recognized that this was a necessary birth defect in EMU–monetary union without fiscal union. A fiscal union–where countries, especially those that struggle to adhere to the Stability and Growth rule, have to cede a greater degree of fiscal autonomy. This will take the form not of German officials, but EU Commissioners having greater say in the fiscal policies of the debtors.

via Euro Pressures Mount–Necessary for Eventual Resolution | Credit Writedowns.

China labour unrest flares as orders fall – FT.com

“There has been an intensification of labour unrest in the past week that is probably the most significant spike in unrest since the summer of 2010,” said Geoffrey Crothall of China Labour Bulletin, a Hong Kong-based labour advocacy group that monitors unrest in China.

….Factories are cutting the overtime that workers depend on to supplement their modest base salaries, after a drop in overseas orders.

via China labour unrest flares as orders fall – FT.com.

Hormats Argues for ‘Competitive Neutrality’ Between U.S., China Firms – China Real Time Report – WSJ

U.S. Undersecretary of State Robert Hormats:

“What I am saying quite simply is that the U.S. is not passing judgment on whether or not China chooses to have state owned enterprises. Our concern is that to the extent they do, those SOEs should not receive benefits (e.g., preferred financing, exemption from anti-monopoly laws, generous export credits, etc) that put them at an artificial competitive advantage vis a vis private enterprises — of the U.S. or indeed any other country.

And I did not make the term ‘competitive neutrality’ up. This broad theme is incorporated in the (proposed trade deal called the) Trans Pacific Partnership and more specifically in Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development work.

My point is not to challenge the Chinese SOE model, it is to say that SOEs should operate within a system of global rules and norms, and that Chinese government support measures should not distort competition within that system….”

via Hormats Argues for ‘Competitive Neutrality’ Between U.S., China Firms – China Real Time Report – WSJ.

A radical redistribution of income undermined US entrepreneurship | Bill Mitchell – billy blog

All components of private debt grew significantly in the decade leading up to the financial crisis which consumer debt leading the way. The household sector, in particular, already squeezed for liquidity by the move to build increasing federal surpluses during the Clinton era, were enticed by lower interest rates and the vehement marketing strategies of the financial engineers to borrow increasing amounts…..While this strategy sustained consumption growth for a time it was unsustainable because it relied on the private sector becoming increasingly indebted. ……With growth being maintained by increasing credit the balance sheets of private households and firms became increasingly precarious and it was only a matter of time before households and firms realized they had to restore some semblance of security by resuming saving.

via A radical redistribution of income undermined US entrepreneurship | Bill Mitchell – billy blog.

Merkel Rejects Rapid Action on the Euro – NYTimes.com

PARIS — Quashing recent speculation of a softening in Germany’s hard-line stance on the euro, Chancellor Angela Merkel repeated on Thursday her firm opposition either to bonds issued jointly by the euro zone countries or to an expansion of the role of the European Central Bank as quick responses to the sovereign debt crisis.

“Nothing has changed in my position,” she said at a news conference…..[but] The German newspaper Bild reported Thursday that the Merkel government was inching towards accepting so-called eurobonds, at least in some form, even if the public stance remained against them, and that some of her party said they could be a tradeoff for treaty changes.

via Merkel Rejects Rapid Action on the Euro – NYTimes.com.

Colin Twiggs: ~ I am getting a sense that Angela Merkel already knows the outcome. As a consummate negotiator she is using the debt crisis to force her EU colleagues to make concessions that in normal times would be politically unthinkable. Germany does not want to abandon the euro which has served them well over the last two decades. They also does not want to risk inflation — so an ECB solution is ruled out. But euro-bonds may be acceptable to the German public — provided that there are strict controls throughout the EMU to ensure fiscal discipline. That, I suspect,  is her desired outcome — she just has to make her EU counterparts feel the heat long enough that they fully appreciate the concessions she makes — and do not start back-tracking on their commitments.

Euro Bonds: The Pros and Cons, According to the European Commission – Real Time Brussels – WSJ

A European Commission discussion paper on euro bonds to be released on Wednesday puts forward….three possible approaches for issuing common government bonds in the euro zone.Two would carry “joint and several” guarantees, making euro zone states responsible for repaying the debts of others. Option 1 envisions all national government bond issues in the euro zone being converted to common euro bonds, while option 2 envisages a partial replacement of national bonds with euro bonds. Option 3 would be for the partial replacement of national government bonds with euro bonds carrying ”several” but not joint guarantees, making each state responsible for its own share of euro bonds. The third approach would be easier to implement, in part because it wouldn’t require changes to European Union Treaties, but would carry fewer benefits.

via Euro Bonds: The Pros and Cons, According to the European Commission – Real Time Brussels – WSJ.

South African rand weakens

The US dollar broke out above its descending triangle, indicating another advance, with a (conservative) medium-term target of 8.80*.

USDZAR

* Target calculation: 8.10 + ( 8.40 – 7.70 ) = 8.80