Countries & Regions Archives - Page 242 of 381

December 7, 2012

DAX breakout above 7500

Germany’s DAX broke resistance at 7500 from its May 2011 high, signaling an advance to the 2007 high at 8000*. A 21-day Twiggs Money Flow trough above zero would reinforce the signal, indicating medium-term buying pressure.

DAX Index

* Target calculation: 7500 + ( 7500 – 7000 ) = 8000

Colin Twiggs

Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Trading Diary and Patient Investor newsletters.

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.
He founded PVT Capital (AFSL No. 546090) in May 2023, which offers investment strategy and advice to wholesale clients.

December 7, 2012

China regulator frets over confidence crisis after investment product fails | Reuters

Hongmei Zhao and Lucy Hornby report:

Investors rushed to [Hua Xia Bank Co Ltd]’s Jiading branch in a suburb of Shanghai after one of four wealth management products issued by the Zhongding Wealth Investment Center failed to pay out as scheduled on November 26.

via China regulator frets over confidence crisis after investment product fails | Reuters.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 7, 2012

Clinton’s Spending Cuts—Not His Tax Hikes—Worked

EDWARD MORRISSEY writes about Clinton-era nostalgia:

In his eight years as President, Clinton reduced federal spending to 18.2 percent of GDP from 22.1 percent, thanks in large part to a Republican-controlled Congress that forced the issue……. Barack Obama managed to hike it 3.5 points in just one term, with 3.2 points going to non-defense spending. Under Obama, federal spending now exceeds 25 percent of GDP, and his has been the biggest increase of any of his predecessors over the last 60 years – even for two-term Presidents.The real debate over deficits isn’t over whether to go back to Clinton-era tax rates. It’s how to get back to Clinton-era spending levels, and then create a tax system that will adequately fund it. The 18.2 percent level of federal spending is one piece of Clinton-era nostalgia worth recalling – as well as the bipartisanship that eventually produced it.

Nostalgists should also remember that the housing bubble started in this era — as did the internet boom — followed by the dot-com bust just as Clinton left office. This article is definitely worth reading.

via Clinton’s Spending Cuts—Not His Tax Hikes—Worked.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 6, 2012

Sterling threatens euro down-trend

Pound Sterling broke its long-term rising trendline against the euro and is testing support at €1.225 on the weekly chart. Retreat of 63-day Twiggs Momentum below zero warns of a primary down-trend. Breach of support would confirm. Respect of support is most unlikely, but would test €1.260 in the medium-term.

Pound Sterling

* Target calculation: 1.23 – ( 1.28 – 1.23 ) = 1.18

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 6, 2012

Aussie Dollar bullish consolidation

The Aussie Dollar is consolidating in a narrow range below resistance at $1.05 — a bullish sign. Breakout would indicate a test of long-term resistance at $1.06. Rising 63-day Twiggs Momentum, above zero, indicates a primary up-trend. In the long-term, breakout above $1.06 would offer a target of $1.10* but the RBA may take measures to prevent further appreciation. Reversal below $1.04 and the rising trendline is unlikely, but would warn of a correction to test primary support at $1.015.

Aussie Dollar/USD

* Target calculation: 1.06 + ( 1.06 – 1.02 ) = 1.10

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 5, 2012

S&P 500 hesitant

Two doji candles on the S&P 500 daily chart indicate indecision. Fiscal cliff negotiations are unlikely to be resolved quickly and another test of primary support at 1350 seems inevitable. Failure of short-term support at 1400 is likely and would signal a test of primary support. While breakout above 1425 is unlikely it would test resistance at 1475. Reversal of 21-day Twiggs Money Flow below zero would indicate selling pressure, but a higher trough (above/below zero) would suggest continuation of the advance to 1475.

S&P 500 Index

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 4, 2012

High-Speed Traders Profit at Expense of Ordinary Investors, a Study Says | NYTimes.com

NATHANIEL POPPER and CHRISTOPHER LEONARD write:

The chief economist at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, Andrei Kirilenko, reports in a coming study that high-frequency traders make an average profit of as much as $5.05 each time they go up against small traders buying and selling one of the most widely used financial contracts [E-mini S&P 500 Futures].

via High-Speed Traders Profit at Expense of Ordinary Investors, a Study Says – NYTimes.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 4, 2012

How Regulations Led to High-Frequency Trading

John Carney writes that high frequency trading is an unintended consequence of regulatory action to remove market specialists:

High frequency trading grew up in the aftermath of a decades-long struggle by Congress, the SEC, and the stock exchanges to stamp out the specialists, who were accused of front-running customers, favoritism and interfering with the smooth operations of markets…….. Things really came to a head after the dot-com crash, when everyone was looking for someone to blame for all that money lost. By 2005, the government passed a series of market reforms that were aimed directly at eliminating the specialists. In the wake of those reforms, commissions fell, pricing improved, exchanges became more competitive—and high-frequency trading arose.

Seems they have swapped one set of problems for another.

The safest way for retail investors or traders to minimize the cost of HFT market interference may be to participate in opening or closing auctions where bids are matched by algorithm.

via How Regulations Led to High-Frequency Trading.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 4, 2012

Muslim, Zionist and proud | Ynetnews

British Muslim Kasim Hafeez writes about his visit to Israel:

I did not encounter an apartheid racist state, but rather, quite the opposite. I was confronted by synagogues, mosques and churches, by Jews and Arabs living together, by minorities playing huge parts in all areas of Israeli life, from the military to the judiciary. It was shocking and eye-opening. This wasn’t the evil Zionist Israel that I had been told about.

Perhaps there is a future for Israel/Palestine after all.

via Muslim, Zionist and proud – Israel Opinion, Ynetnews.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.

December 4, 2012

Fed set to unveil extra asset purchases – FT.com

Robin Harding at FT writes:

The other issue on the agenda is replacing the FOMC’s current forecast that rates will stay low until mid-2015 with a set of preconditions for the economy to reach before it considers raising rates. “I now think a threshold of 6.5 per cent for the unemployment rate and an inflation safeguard of 2.5 per cent . . . would be appropriate,” said Charles Evans, president of the Chicago Fed…..

The problem is that both of these thresholds are moving targets:

Unemployment is based on surveys and only includes those who have actively sought a job in recent weeks. It fluctuates with the participation rate.
Inflation is also subjective, dependent on the basket of goods measured and estimates of housing inflation that are subject to manipulation.

Targeting nominal GDP growth would be far more accurate.

via Fed set to unveil extra asset purchases – FT.com.

Colin Twiggs

Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies key macro trends in the global economy before evaluating selected opportunities using a combination of fundamental and technical analysis.