Minack exclusive: Australian recession risk still live | MacroBusiness

From David Llewellyn-Smith:

…..real GDP remains a misleading measure of how Australia is faring. The key to the mining boom was not GDP strength – real GDP growth was weaker than in the 1990s – but the income uplift from rising terms of trade. The issue now is the income drag from the terms of trade falling. Real per capita net income fell 2¼% through 2016. Australia is now the midst of the longest period of declining per capita income since quarterly data started in 1959 (Exhibit 1).

Source: Minack exclusive: Australian recession risk still live – MacroBusiness