Australia: Leading indicator surprise

The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index jumped from –0.4% in April to 4.1% in September this year — above its long-term average of 2.8%. According to Westpac, main contributors to the growth improvement were:

  • manufacturing materials prices (1.2 ppt’s);
  • overtime worked (1.0 ppt’s);
  • productivity (1.2 ppt’s);
  • corporate operating surplus (1.1 ppt’s);
  • dwelling approvals (1.0 ppt’s); and
  • All Ordinaries index (0.2 ppt’s).

Negative influences were:

  • U.S industrial production (–0.9 ppt’s); and
  • real money supply (–0.2 ppt’s).

3 Replies to “Australia: Leading indicator surprise”

  1. That is a huge swing. Who got what wrong? Just shows how indicators can be manipulated to the benefit of big business and government. Try telling the thousands of Aussies that have been laid off in the past 2 months and many about to be finished just before Christmas that everything is Ok and the country is growing!

  2. First comment , spot on ! Everywhere you turn, everyone you speak to has the same thing to say . And it’s not that we are going well.

Comments are closed.