The annualised growth rate of the Westpac–Melbourne Institute Leading Index jumped from –0.4% in April to 4.1% in September this year — above its long-term average of 2.8%. According to Westpac, main contributors to the growth improvement were:
- manufacturing materials prices (1.2 ppt’s);
- overtime worked (1.0 ppt’s);
- productivity (1.2 ppt’s);
- corporate operating surplus (1.1 ppt’s);
- dwelling approvals (1.0 ppt’s); and
- All Ordinaries index (0.2 ppt’s).
Negative influences were:
- U.S industrial production (–0.9 ppt’s); and
- real money supply (–0.2 ppt’s).
Colin Twiggs is a former investment banker with almost 40 years of experience in financial markets. He founded PVT Capital (AFSL number 546090), which provides income and growth strategies to wholesale clients.
Colin also co-founded Incredible Charts and writes the popular Patient Investor newsletter.
Using a top-down approach, Colin identifies macro trends in the global economy and then combines fundamental and technical analysis to evaluate opportunities in sectors that stand to benefit.
Focusing on interest rates and financial market liquidity as primary drivers of the economic cycle, he warned of the 2008/2009 and 2020 bear markets well ahead of actual events.